Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[slinkychris]

north east i mean lol

[LomondSnowstorm]

Steady as she goes out to +96:

 

Slightly further west and a bit more amplified upstream but otherwise very similar to last night:

[snowmadchrisuk]

If you look at UKMO at +120 and then at +144 that low actually get's pushed back West , so weather the energy would go under or it would just stall unable to get past the block is interesting to me  

 

 

[SMU]

So what did we get-

 

Easy:

low pressure better tilt- vertical- GFS is slightly positive.

Slightly better heights ahead of the low & over scandi

 

Hard

Energy separation south of the atlantic low is digging further south-

 

last one VERY important-

Shortwave alignment at 72 - the small one over southern Scandi is working for us on the ECM funnelling the cold South & west where as the GFS has the tilt totally again the flow- therefor slowing the advection down

 

as a result at 96- GFS has -12 uppers over Scandi-

ECM has -20's !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

S

[Tim Bland]

GFS ensembles indicate that the OP was a bit keen to warm things up at the end of the run. As Ian said earlier if the cold get embedded it will be hard to shift!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Still an annoying number of GEFS ensembles not buying it,hmmmmm.

[snowmadchrisuk]

The difference between +96 and +120 ECM seems way to fast and way out of sync or is it just me 

 

 

Edited January 8, 2014 by snowmadchrisuk

[shaky]

The difference between +96 and +120 seems way to fast and way out of sync or is it just me .

in a bad way or a good way?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Looks good to me at +120 - everything a bit further NW again, HP nearing Greenland, cold air further west than on the other two with the energy still going under.

Actually, I don't want to jump the gun, but it looks bloody magnificent, the best 48 hours model watching in a long time. Hopefully the next 48 will keep it steady.

Edited January 8, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[MR EXTREMES]

my my look at the ecm yet another 12z run screaming with excitement beautiful.

[SMU]

This is the difference & impact that T72 system has on the uppers heading for the UK at 120-

 

 

ECM-  Cold pool DEEP, lower heights - core minimas -18c

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010812/ECM0-120.GIF?08-0

 

GFS - Not quite as deep cold pool, slightly softer heights & core minima -16  A long way further NE

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010812/gfs-1-120.png?12

 

All this is coming our way on the ECM at 144-

 

Expect sub -8c at 144-

 

S

[snowmadchrisuk]

in a bad way or a good way?

Good , if it is correct  

[MR EXTREMES]

my my look at the ecm yet another 12z run screaming with excitement beautiful.

that's almost a greeny high its so far west incredible

[nick sussex]

The ECM is more like the UKMO upstream at T120hrs, will it develop that more amplified wave, hopefully it does and we can see what the UKMO 168hrs would have looked like.

[tight isobar]

Going good again ecm 12z.things taking good shape

[MR EXTREMES]

^{booom double boooom}

[snowmadchrisuk]

-10 850's into Scotland at +144 , Block is getting stronger and growing in size . and were only talking 5 days away . 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

144 hours....

 

 

168 hours should be interesting...

[Panayiotis]

Chart of the winter!! At 144hrs, we are getting there! Block up north, low to the SW, bringing in moisture and easterly winds= snow

Next possible snow event to the SE of Greenland, waiting for the undercut.....

Edited January 8, 2014 by Panayiotis

[Dancerwithwings]

The ECM is more like the UKMO upstream at T120hrs, will it develop that more amplified wave, hopefully it does and we can see what the UKMO 168hrs would have looked like.

I was only thinking that myself earlier, I wish sometimes the UKMO would go out to 240h

[bluearmy]

if that ridge keeps on going west, we will end up with a west based -NAO !! (just kidding). it is quite amazing how far west the blocking has gone on the ops over the past 24 hours.

[ITSY]

my only concern, having not yet viewed the ECM, is the "mild" (or rather, average) cluster on the GEFS ens suite. If it weren't for that i'd be all out optimistic! Still, fantastic output overall so far this evening if cold and snow is your thing!

[SMU]

KABOOM

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010812/ECM1-144.GIF?08-0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010812/ECU1-144.GIF?08-0

 

Snow moving SSE

 

S

 

 

[tight isobar]

192 shoild be excellent viewing fab run....again...

[pandit-scholar]

In my opinion the ECM gets better and better if you like cold!!