Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[weather eater]

That stupid shortwave near Iceland needs to get lost, this stops more forcing on the pattern to disrupt energy se'wards, without that going on a sightseeing tour to the north the pattern would be further west with a better tilt to the troughing, its still negative but you can see how it could be better.

Short wave drama it happens every time we get the potential for an easterly set-up, it’s the best reason to never get carried away by charts at 96hrs plus.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Sorry, newb here, isn't yellow a 'bad thing' for us coldies?

 

Not when it's floating around at a high latitude!

[Continental Climate]

This is about as far as I dare look http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010812/gfsnh-0-144.png?12!! So for me a good start to the day, not counting my chickens yet though!! Onto the GEM and UKMO next....

[Purga]

However even with that irritation even the GFS surely can't mess up from here with a stronger ridge to the ne.Note the little blob of green developing to the ne in the centre of the high!

Not only to the NE Nick but perhaps stronger ridging to the North than before - i.e. around Iceland

 

Just hope it's not too far North !.

Edited January 8, 2014 by Purga

[easton888]

Not when it's floating around at a high latitude!

Ah! So....good thing?

[Ali1977]

-4c uppers reach us by next Tue, Scotland and the East may get some winteriness in showers by then..

[Cheshire Freeze]

Better forcing on the Atlantic LP at 144 hours than the 6z, heights have pushed a tad south-west to enable this

 

[SMU]

Maybe another one of those 'blue moon' examples eh Steve?...

 

Yes the Tim henman of models is there now...

 

T156 the train is coming

 

Heights down to 532 from 540 indicating greater instability

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010812/gfsnh-0-156.png?12

 

Theta E chart down to 12c

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010812/gfs-6-162.png?12

 

& the atlantic approaching...

S

Edited January 8, 2014 by Steve Murr

[shedhead]

Again 144hr is probably as far forward as we need to look imo and again the 'overall' pattern looks fairly stable, with some pretty cold surface air in place by that time.  Yes there are shortwaves circling like sharks around a shipwreck, but that was always going to be the case, it wouldn't be a potential cold shot without um!

 

 

[Ali1977]

-6c uppers into Scotland by Wed morning, -4c now covering most of England...........

[nick sussex]

Yippeeeeee the Eagle Has Landed!!!!!

 

Off to lie down now! that was like pulling teeth, energy going se and a stronger ridge to the north/ne and lots of deep cold to east/ne, overall even with the shortwaves we have got there.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well there's your Scandinavian and Russian cool down. Frozen solid...

 

[MR EXTREMES]

Nice GFS so far

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010812/gfsnh-0-138.png?12

 

Dead still air over the UK with

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010812/gfsnh-6-138.png?12 14c Theta Temp & ever advancing cold to the NE...

 

S

big problem is steve is that tiny area of high pressure is really not enough to keep things going this is why the 30dayer ukmo Is so reluctant to give us the real deal. im afraid longevity will be the issue although granted it is the gfs.

 

im going to see what the others come up with it looks far more messy with the only a little weak surface ridge to our north its in the right place but not potent enough that's my thoughts anyway I hope im wrong and it changes for the better.

[Tamara]

Edited

Edited January 8, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[shedhead]

Yes the Tim henman of models is there now...

 

T156 the train is coming

 

Heights down to 532 from 540 indicating greater instability

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010812/gfsnh-0-156.png?12

 

Theta E chart down to 12c

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010812/gfs-6-162.png?12

 

& the atlantic approaching...

S

It's starting to look rather more Djokovic imo...with a bit of Federer thrown in too....

 

January 15th will be 2 days, both the 1st and 46th day of winter!

 

 

Edited January 8, 2014 by shedhead

[weather eater]

Still for all the earlier SW drama by 162hrs the 12z looks very like the 06z at the same stage, not a lot in it really quite small differences. here's the 06z

 

 

 

[Purga]

Looking good to say the least!

then to

 

Edited January 8, 2014 by Purga

[Mucka]

UKMO 144h much better than yesterday and it has been really struggling of late so i would expect more disruption of that low in the Atlantic in tomorrows runs.

 

[Continental Climate]

HMMMM Reverse zonality http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.png!! Almost has a look of 47 about it!!

[Snowman.]

Air becoming unstable and more of direct easterly.

 

 

-8 skirting the east coast.

 

[Nick L]

big problem is steve is that tiny area of high pressure is really not enough to keep things going this is why the 30dayer ukmo Is so reluctant to give us the real deal. im afraid longevity will be the issue although granted it is the gfs.

 

im going to see what the others come up with it looks far more messy with the only a little weak surface ridge to our north its in the right place but not potent enough that's my thoughts anyway I hope im wrong and it changes for the better.

 

I share the same concerns really. This "block" doesn't seem particularly robust, not enough to allow longevity in terms of cold anyway. But it's still far better than the dross so far this "winter"!

[nick sussex]

big problem is steve is that tiny area of high pressure is really not enough to keep things going this is why the 30dayer ukmo Is so reluctant to give us the real deal. im afraid longevity will be the issue although granted it is the gfs.

 

im going to see what the others come up with it looks far more messy with the only a little weak surface ridge to our north its in the right place but not potent enough that's my thoughts anyway I hope im wrong and it changes for the better.

You're worrying too much about the future, I will just be glad to get to the easterly intact, most people given the zonal garbage of the last month will just enjoy this even if its not a long spell, however if the high is resolute it can split the jet and not get flattened.

 

Also bear in mind that it was only the beginning of last week that apparently the ECM32 dayer was showing a sw signal !!! for next week! 

Edited January 8, 2014 by nick sussex

[Snowman.]

Come to papa!

 

[ITSY]

WOW. Very tasty synoptics. That is all.

[Met4Cast]

Everyone worrying that the block doesn't look "robust" enough should stop worrying. The strength of the block isn't really that important but more the shape of the block. Take January 1963 for example

 

 

The block doesn't look brilliant but we all know how that one turned out.

 

Not comparing now with then, just pointing out for those worried about the strength of the block. Relax.