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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Not looking like an Eastily is gonna happen on this run, maybe the ens will keep on showing more cold options...

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Cumulonimbus Tower Apprentice

Cumulonimbus Tower

Posted
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
Posted

Ought to change its name to CFG - Chocolate Fire Guard!

Or Chocolat Fire Surround ;)

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Whatever the GFS is upto I'd be very wary of this run, continuity upstream is non-existent here, its all over the place over the USA and Canada.

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snow1975 Explorer

snow1975

Posted
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms and extremes
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
Posted

Friends in Poland just eee mailed me ,they are expecting frigid temp to set in round about the 13th .

Thats not surprising with -20C uppers pushing south.

Posted Image

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

From the models it does look as though any real freeze has been pushed back to February when things finally warm up over the states and a block to our east develops bringing in a month of deep winter for coldies to enjoy. Until then, more of the same, although we may find more frequent NW outbreaks bringing wintry showers later this month. So don't put away the deicer, thermals, etc just yet.Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

I take it you know a freeze is coming in Feb?

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Gfs continuing to be the fly in the ointment! Blocking virtually non existent on this run!

Posted Image

t192

So much for the CFS being the bees knees!

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snow1975 Explorer

snow1975

Posted
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms and extremes
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
Posted

Gfs continuing to be the fly in the ointment! Blocking virtually non existent on this run!

Posted Image

t192

I'm no model expert but you often here the seasoned pros often saying the GFS 12Z is notoriously progressive?

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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted (edited)

well the gfs gives us -4 uppers but not from north or east from the west.

but its starting to become clear that the ukmo is also starting to come inline with the ukmo so its two steps back this evening.

 

most likely outcome will be a mlb.

although not so stormy 100% becoming a little calmer.

the ecm should fall inline with the ukmo and gfs infact it looks likely the gfs has been the most consistent.

 

although -4 will aid snowfall futher north which at least is wintry.

 

gfs finishes with milder sw flow.

Edited by emotional rollercoaster
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

I'm struggling to see where a possible change to an eastily is going to come from, nothing on any of the last 2 days GFS showing up anyway, although plenty in the Ens...

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terrier Seasoned

terrier

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted

The 12z doesn't surprise me at all. Yes we may see a temporary cooler spell next weekend. But it won't be long until the Atlantic fires up again. Until the states lose this seriously cold weather the uk won't see anything really wintry. We're just going to keep getting battered by the low pressure systems that the powerful jet will throw towards us. Think feb is our best shot. As hopefully by then things should be less cold over the other side of the pond. Hopefully allowing the jet stream to meander south. But until then think the models will continue to look bleak for our little island.

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Gaz1985 Community Regular

Gaz1985

Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
Posted

Mild uppers moving in for some of us as high pressure builds in Eastern Europe

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Turning cooler again as the milder uppers move away

 

Posted Image

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PolarWarsaw Seasoned

PolarWarsaw

Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
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Posted

I'm struggling to see where a possible change to an eastily is going to come from, nothing on any of the last 2 days GFS showing up anyway, although plenty in the Ens...

 

I don't mean to be rude, snipy or aggressive. 

 

But eastily is spelt 'Easterly'. Just one of those petty annoyances that has caught my eye when you post. 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

The 12z doesn't surprise me at all. Yes we may see a temporary cooler spell next weekend. But it won't be long until the Atlantic fires up again. Until the states lose this seriously cold weather the uk won't see anything really wintry. We're just going to keep getting battered by the low pressure systems that the powerful jet will throw towards us. Think feb is our best shot. As hopefully by then things should be less cold over the other side of the pond. Hopefully allowing the jet stream to meander south. But until then think the models will continue to look bleak for our little island.

Good to hear feb is back in the equation, day or so ago we were going to have to wait till march!!!
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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

Yes the GFS op is as you were, taking us to the last week of January:

 

post-14819-0-34403600-1388940152_thumb.p

 

Much like December, zonal but a tad slacker.

 

Hopefully a rogue run.

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Gaz1985 Community Regular

Gaz1985

Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
Posted

Back to square 1 for coldies. Mr Atlantic strikes back. But it is the GFS, usually the more progressive model.

 

Posted Image

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jvenge Seasoned

jvenge

Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
Posted

Can someone explain the logic behind the UK needing a warm up in the US to see colder weather here? Oh, I get how the pattern over that way is chucking storms at us, but I just don't understand the science behind saying the UK can't be cold while the US is cold.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

I don't mean to be rude, snipy or aggressive. 

 

But eastily is spelt 'Easterly'. Just one of those petty annoyances that has caught my eye when you post. 

 

Fair point!!!

 

Bring on the Easterlies!!!

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
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Posted

Before people jump on the GFS bandwagon to the twilight zone it was roundly slated  past day 4 this morning by NOAA upstream,  they went with the ECM and ensemble mean past day 4, they thought the ECM and UKMO showed good continuity upstream, something totally lacking from the GFS over the last few weeks.

 

But anyway if people want to follow the GFS fine, just make sure theres some beta blockers handy and the speed dial to the Prozac ordering service!

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Gaz1985 Community Regular

Gaz1985

Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
Posted (edited)

Can someone explain the logic behind the UK needing a warm up in the US to see colder weather here? Oh, I get how the pattern over that way is chucking storms at us, but I just don't understand the science behind saying the UK can't be cold while the US is cold.

 

Just one or two reasons is the bitter air in the US effects the jet stream and gives power to the Atlantic - heard people yesterday saying "we will get all that cold in America we always do".........that is nonsense, all it does is give us somewhat chilly and wet weather.

Edited by Gaz1985
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

The less said about GFS the better. Is it just me or this output coming out slower and slower these days?

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted (edited)

The less said about GFS the better. Is it just me or this output coming out slower and slower these days?

 

 

Its not you; still waiting for the UKMO to update from T96!!

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Bobby Seasoned

Bobby

Posted
Posted

The last few GFS runs have been little different to what we've been seeing since early December to be honest? The ECM ensemble mean surprised me this morning, maybe it has picked up on something and the GFS has got really mixed up. But the balance still seems against any kind of cold spell for the forseeable future considering the output from the NAEFS, GEFS, GEM ensembles.

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