Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Richie V]

Guys n gals, can I just say.... I have just seen the ecm op ensemble. This is the biggest joke in all my years in meteorolgy I have ever seen (and people moan about the gfs!)

Read NOTHING into the ecm 12z. NECP must be sick with laughter.

[nick sussex]

Colder in the latter stages than the 00z. Also drier.I wonder if the shackles will be taken off Ian re the meto 30 dayer reasoning. Honestly ian, we'll not tell anyone, especially if its Glosea 4 led!

So are the UKMO ignoring the ECM? and going with their in house view. Or have they been infiltrated by an undercover Net Weather operative determined to stop the influx of NW members to the trauma unit after the ECM 32 bombshell last night?

 

Apparently Ian will be sent to a Russian Gulag if he spills the beans! We'll soon have to print those t-shirts with Free Ian!

 

Night all, see you all tomorrow for what could be a pivotal day in the search for some cold and snow.

[Richie V]

Haha, if only it was that simple, you missing the clues????

So are the UKMO ignoring the ECM? and going with their in house view. Or have they been infiltrated by an undercover Net Weather operative determined to stop the influx of NW members to the trauma unit after the ECM 32 bombshell last night? Apparently Ian will be sent to a Russian Gulag if he spills the beans! We'll soon have to print those t-shirts with Free Ian! Night all, see you all tomorrow for what could be a pivotal day in the search for some cold and snow.

[Captain Shortwave]

Guys n gals, can I just say.... I have just seen the ecm op ensemble. This is the biggest joke in all my years in meteorolgy I have ever seen (and people moan about the gfs!)

Read NOTHING into the ecm 12z. NECP must be sick with laughter.

If a weak ridge (say 1015-1020mb) is forecast to form somewhere in a several thousand square mile area of the northern hemisphere for which the models seem to chop and change where it is, what will the ensemble mean look like. Yep zonal

Isn't it odd that a seemingly zonal looking mean is giving maxima of just 4 or 5 degrees?

Or maybe I've lost the plot 

Edited January 3, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[nick sussex]

Guys n gals, can I just say.... I have just seen the ecm op ensemble. This is the biggest joke in all my years in meteorolgy I have ever seen (and people moan about the gfs!)

Read NOTHING into the ecm 12z. NECP must be sick with laughter.

 

Put down the mulled wine! As a regular reader for years of  the  model discussions the joke over there is the GFS not the ECM, and by the way its NCEP!

 

Just mention hurricane Sandy, luckily they went with the ECM. Not saying the ECM will be correct here but its by far the favourite model of forecasters in the USA.

 

By the way cute dog in your avatar, lose those goggles though the Biggles look was so last year!

[draztik]

If that's the GFS taking a step towards the ECM, it would take one giant leap to get it similar to the ECM Nick....

Looking at the teleconnections and isolating the 12z suite from the ECM, we see the control run... has little support, with its rather strong -NAO.

 

 

I can't ignore what the other models are showing, and so I fully expect the ECM to backtrack tomorrow. If I am wrong, then sweet But it will take more than one run from the ECM before I will even consider a new coat.

[bobbydog]

......or is the weather ignoring the models?.........

[Ali1977]

Some cold Ens it the 18z suite

[SMU]

^^^ people still backing the GFS after its huge swing to the euros in the last 48 hours

From Zero blocking to an arctic high and greenland heights in just 8 runs of the Gfs

Incase it escaped your blinkers the GFS is the outlier again tonight with

ECM, UKMO , JMA, GEM & NAVGEM all on the same page.

There is a reason why the heights are building ne - because the corr of the fastest jet energy is over northern canada and not over the atlantic

The GFS is the Worst model to follow if your looking for answers ......

As for NCEP id imagine they would sell 49% of their shares to rights of use of the ECM as its outright the best model out there

S

[Richie V]

My typing sucks on android phone, my bad. As for the goggles I suggest you google auntie mable come outside lolol

Put down the mulled wine! As a regular reader for years of  the  model discussions the joke over there is the GFS not the ECM, and by the way its NCEP!

 

Just mention hurricane Sandy, luckily they went with the ECM. Not saying the ECM will be correct here but its by far the favourite model of forecasters in the USA.

 

By the way cute dog in your avatar, lose those goggles though the Biggles look was so last year!

[nick sussex]

If that's the GFS taking a step towards the ECM, it would take one giant leap to get it similar to the ECM Nick....

Looking at the teleconnections and isolating the 12z suite from the ECM, we see the control run... has little support, with its rather strong -NAO.

 

 

I can't ignore what the other models are showing, and so I fully expect the ECM to backtrack tomorrow. If I am wrong, then sweet But it will take more than one run from the ECM before I will even consider a new coat.

The ECM operational is an outlier solution so of course its up against the rest but with easterlies this will often be the case initially, the ensembles will always be a bit slow to pick up on the signal. 

 

We'll see tomorrow whether this trend gathers momentum, at least we don't have to sit through days of model runs, if its going to happen we'll see the key output within T144hrs, either we get the phased outcome and no easterly or the easterly, at least we're not talking of some mediocre either/or. So it should be an interesting morning!

[damianslaw]

Final words from me this evening - it does well to remember of all the models the GFS will always have the far greatest room for error simply because it has 4 runs a day. Of all its runs, the 18z is usually the furthest out and often by a long margin - how many times have we seen it go off on a wild goose chase.

Many a day I simply don't bother looking at the gfs.

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

Could i just ask, has anyone noticed that on Meteociel, the UKMO charts for 12 today seem to be different from those on Wetter? I suspectt they havn't updated but the time signature looks ok. Just confusing the heck out of me after 1.5 cans of stella  

[draztik]

Steve, not going to get into a battle re which is the best model. We know the verification stats etc....

But the ECM has been a tad erratic (im being kind), going from zonal to a strong Scandi block, back to zonal.... sure enough, the GFS leads folk up the garden path too. Its just too early to know where this is headed. You seem keen to back the ECM when it shows a colder theme, disregarding the other models. You did it back at the end of November into Dec, when the ECM showed a northerly, with deep cold indicated for days. Well we all know how that turned out. GFS was on the money, ECM backtracked drastically nearer the time. It left the model licking its wounds.

Let's see what tomorrows output brings us, and not get too carried away.

[Richie V]

Thank you kind sir, you saved me the effort of posting. Brain scrambled, long week. Plus one for you. Sorry off topic mods, delete if this rubbishes the thread... Night all.

Steve, not going to get into a battle re which is the best model. We know the verification stats etc....But the ECM has been a tad erratic (im being kind), going from zonal to a strong Scandi block, back to zonal.... sure enough, the GFS leads folk up the garden path too. Its just too early to know where this is headed. You seem keen to back the ECM when it shows a colder theme, disregarding the other models. You did it back at the end of November into Dec, when the ECM showed a northerly, with deep cold indicated for days. Well we all know how that turned out. GFS was on the money, ECM backtracked drastically nearer the time. It left the model licking its wounds.Let's see what tomorrows output brings us, and not get too carried away.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just to echo what Nick (Bluearmy) has been saying....any pressure rise to the NE is notoriously difficult for the models to resolve correctly, especially given the timescales involved. Remember how many times we've been ambushed at quite close timeframes with height rises being underestimated by the NWP. This is one of those scenarios which could quite easily gather a lot of momentum within a very short space of time. We should, therefore, perhaps take a sceptical view of the ensemble suites in this instance and any numerical model which lacks the resolution of modelling such as the ECMWF. Tomorrow will certainly be interesting, one way or t'other.

[Iceni]

Yes but we don't want it too slow! otherwise it will just sit there waiting to phase with the energy coming off the PV. If the damn thing would just move more se then I'd be rushing out to the sales to get my new Calvin Klein ear muffs and scarve collection and my designer sledge!

 

 

I've already got mine, trouble is there are no hills around here, just gentle slopes.

Edited January 4, 2014 by Iceni

[Mucka]

GFS and UKMO say no.

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

GFS and UKMO say no.

 

Dreadful 0z GFS,hopefully the GEFS look better.

UKMO also looks poor going forward at 144- http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html with positive height anomalies across Europe I would anticipate Atlantic lows to be driving our weather thereafter.

I really hope ECM remains steadfast or I think we can write off the first 10 days of January(and that's probably being generous).

[That ECM]

GFS and UKMO say no.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7381/ECH1-144_heq3.GIF

Close but looks like a no.

At least it's interesting watching again and with FI at about t 120, I think we will see more interesting output moving forward.

Edited January 4, 2014 by That ECM

[Polar Maritime]

Yes ECM ^ We are only looking at one set of runs, Models are still playing with a pattern change out in FI, there will be some wild swings in evolution before they settle down to any kind of form. As you say very interesting watching it unfold.

 

Will be interesting to here any updates from Fergie, reg the growing signals the METO are receiving, for cold weather last third of Jan.

Edited January 4, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[The PIT]

Another day and another set of poor runs. No sign of cold and the model of choice does briefly bring colder air in but then introduces milder air quickly in deep FI.

In reliable time frame slowly becoming slighter quieter and gradually slightly more settled.

[IDO]

I rarely take any notice of the ECM op after D7, compared to the mean, its verification is poor come D10. Last night the mean was clear that the op and Control were not supported. Sometimes it is difficult to ignore the op, but without the detail we get from the GEFS, where we can see if the GFS op is an outlier, we have to go on past record, and ECM op at D8 plus leads us up the garden path re amplification nearly every time.

 

Anyway suffice to say, the trend of the last few days to flatten the Atlantic Ridge has met cross model support. D7 on the ECM (as far as I will go out) and we have lower upper heights over Scandi (as per last night's mean):

 

 

It then pushes the AH NE into the UK towards Scandi, before sinking it into Europe. There is about 15% support for this on the 0z GEFS and as per most GEFS runs there is still about 15% support for the Scandi High at T240. However that has been background noise for many runs but showing no inclination to become a trend.

 

The GFS op is slow motion zonal from start to finish. The tendency to sink the upper trough through the UK into S.Euro is still there, and this is reflected in the GEFS as the main option at the end of FI, followed by zonal. The GEFS are very poor at T384 with no sign of any HLB. This takes us to the 20th Jan and we must consider that Jan is struggling for cold. The London ENS reflect this:

 

 

I am not sure what is going on with the GEM T240 chart and cannot take it serious with a surface Greenland & Svalbard high, along with a Greenland-mid Atlantic upper trough and LP over Scandi:

 

 

Certainly GFS has been consistent with the overall synoptics, a slackening zonal flow with the Atlantic ridge flattening. It has explored higher heights over the UK but has now edged away from that and upto T240 it is now suggesting a slack UK low pressure surface flow.

Edited January 4, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[shedhead]

Very much back to earth with a bump this morning, with both the big two flatly refusing to give up on the Atlantic dominated pattern. Rather worryingly GFS also keeps thing pretty active right though to

the end of the low res, whereas after another progressively less unsettled week ECM again wants to build pressure; however it's probably worth noting it's been very poor post T+168hrs on a few

occasions recently.

 

 

ECM

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Yep,as expected the ecm backs away from its 12z run from yesterday.

Looks like another week about to be written off for any hope of cold and snow,im beginning to wonder if we might end up with a late 80's type horror show now,i really am.

Just having a gander at some of the temps across central and East Europe next week and its staggering,here is a flavour...

 

Minsk (Belarus)

sunday cloudy max 3 min 2

monday rain max 4 min 2

tuesday rain max 4 min 3

Wed rain max 5 min 4

Slightly more west into Poland we have wroclaw a western city and its actually beyond belief,check this out -

Wroclaw (Poland)

sunday dry max 9 min 3

monday dry max 10 min 1

tuesday dry max 8 min 3

Wed dry max ELEVEN min 3

I would imagine temps of 11 degrees in january in Poland are truely exceptional.

All this thanks to that huge blocking high across Europe.