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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.


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Although we don't manage the bells and whistles run from the GFS  18hrs run it has edged towards the ECM in terms of orientation of PV and the pattern to the ne, also a little more energy heading se.

 

The phase though occurs so that's the end of the excitement for this evening, its incredible just how finely balanced this set up is, makes for avid model viewing but not good for the nerves if you're looking for some colder weather and snow.

It's the subtle changes early on that make this pub run nowhere near the ECM 12z.Short term, I'd say FI is between 96 and 120 hrs, this has a marked difference on the rest of the output.

 

Looking where it sat amongst its many members, the ECM is not a favourite among the bookies on NWP land!!! :-(

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The ECM op has all the signs of an oddball outlier to me, I will be very surprised if the 00z does not revert to something like the ECM was previously showing and the other NWP output. Might have picked up on something but it goes against all the other signs so I'd suggest people don't get their hopes up on that one run...

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It's the subtle changes early on that make this pub run nowhere near the ECM 12z.Short term, I'd say FI is between 96 and 120 hrs, this has a marked difference on the rest of the output. Looking where it sat amongst its many members, the ECM is not a favourite among the bookies on NWP land!!! :-(

At this point I would agree. The GFS even has the cheek to pictorially show what it thinks of the ECM via isobar at the crucial point. Bit abstract but made me laugh.http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7063/gfsnh-0-150_llp4.png
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The ECM op has all the signs of an oddball outlier to me, I will be very surprised if the 00z does not revert to something like the ECM was previously showing and the other NWP output. Might have picked up on something but it goes against all the other signs so I'd suggest people don't get their hopes up on that one run...

I wouldn't use the word 'all' in these circumstances. The ECM did not go against all the other signs, because we have already had indications from the Met Office and from various ensembles that this was a possibility. Additionally, though the ECM op and control were the coldest runs of their set for the most part, there were still plenty of other cold runs. Never speak in absolutes when there are so many variables to consider!

Edited by Joe Levy
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BBC signalling the major low due to anchor itself over mid north atlantic is going to be a slower creature than first predicted - taking longer to hit our shores allowing any height development to the north of scandi to get a greater foothold- trough disruption and an undercut situation could easily verify come mid week. The reason for the divergences between GFS and UKMO/ECM is because of this feature and its predicted movement. This is quite an exciting time model watching - far from clear cut.

Where did you hear this? Does this give some support to the ECM 12z operational? Thanks GSL
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BBC signalling the major low due to anchor itself over mid north atlantic is going to be a slower creature than first predicted - taking longer to hit our shores allowing any height development to the north of scandi to get a greater foothold- trough disruption and an undercut situation could easily verify come mid week. The reason for the divergences between GFS and UKMO/ECM is because of this feature and its predicted movement.

 

This is quite an exciting time model watching - far from clear cut.

Yes but we don't want it too slow! otherwise it will just sit there waiting to phase with the energy coming off the PV. If the damn thing would just move more se then I'd be rushing out to the sales to get my new Calvin Klein ear muffs and scarve collection and my designer sledge!

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Gfs as some know overhypes Atlantic onslaught.ecm overall respectable at height formation via Scandinavia,ukmo seems keener on ecm output evolution.so as again needs close watching, but a break in current conditions mid month seem almost certain...

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Any experts online that could give their opinion of the 18z and whether there have been any subtle moves towards ECM?

 

you dont need an expert davey - nope is the answer re any moves, subtle or not.

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Our favourite cannon fodder model jumps on the ECM bandwagon, the NAVGEM!

 

It's 144hrs looks nice!

And you said all the excitement was over for the day.Posted Image 

 

Anyway,here is the new 120 hrs fax chart which is teasing a bit.

 

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Although we don't manage the bells and whistles run from the GFS  18hrs run it has edged towards the ECM in terms of orientation of PV and the pattern to the ne, also a little more energy heading se.

 

The phase though occurs so that's the end of the excitement for this evening, its incredible just how finely balanced this set up is, makes for avid model viewing but not good for the nerves if you're looking for some colder weather and snow.

 

 

Best foot forward so far this winter Nick.Its been a very painful start, I wonder if we could see Winter charge through rather than open the door and walk in. Weekend onwards going to be nerve wrecking.

Edited by Jason T
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If ECM plays out like the 12z then the Weatheronline forecast issued a week ago may be bang on http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=monthahead&DAY=20131227

To be fair to weatheronline their December forecast issued at the end of October was pretty bang on. So hopefully you could be right.
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you dont need an expert davey - nope is the answer re any moves, subtle or not.

I think it has edged a little way across to the ECM, not a leap but a step especially if you compare it with the earlier  GFS 12hrs run.

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Better than this morning but still plenty of scatter

 

Posted Image

Colder in the latter stages than the 00z. Also drier.

I wonder if the shackles will be taken off Ian re the meto 30 dayer reasoning. Honestly ian, we'll not tell anyone, especially if its Glosea 4 led!

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Any experts online that could give their opinion of the 18z and whether there have been any subtle moves towards ECM?

I'm no expert, but try experimenting watching the charts in two ways - first, watch what is coming west to east - do this and it looks like more wind and rain. But then try watching what is coming east to west between T150 and T204. Watch the purples coming out of Russia and into Scandinavia. It's these dark blues and purples in the east that contain major cold - watch and see that for a time they look like they are heading straight for Scotland. That's when you realise the GFS 18Z is not a million miles from the ECM control run, just that the Atlantic wins this round on a split-vote decision. But who will win on tomorrow's charts?? Edited by rjbw
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