Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[IDO]

The T168 Ensemble mean for the 12z shows attempted ridging to Iceland but certainly no clear support for the op run, low surface heights from then to T240 over Scandi:

 

 

 

[SMU]

Plus points today for me

* UKMO 144 + consistency awsome polar ridging & arctic high allignment which is very very important for cold air westward advection

* ECM & JMA height building to the North which steers the atlantic train away towards iceland

* The low parked over the UK @120 being modelled further SE ahead of the atlantic ridging to avoid phasing

All in all another strong positive step

Ps im dreaming you want a stronger warmer signal to the west of the UK as it demonstrates a strong pulse of WAA from the south which is warmer than the earlier modelling of the westerly

S

Edited January 3, 2014 by Steve Murr

[terrier]

Really hope the ECM is onto something tonight. Not really fussed about snow. At this point just dry and frosty will do give us all a chance to dry out . But it's only one run so I guess extreme caution is the best way forward. And hopefully the trend builds in the days ahead.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The T168 Ensemble mean for the 12z shows attempted ridging to Iceland but certainly no clear support for the op run, low surface heights from then to T240 over Scandi:

 

EDH1-168 (2).gif

A lot more support than 3-4 days ago though looking at that.  No doubt we have increased the shot at cold

 

BFTP

Edited January 3, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Richie V]

I find it remarkable the ecm trowing that ridge artic bound with such a massive area of off the bottom of the scale low z500's over canada / US. DON'T be dissapointed if that vast area phases eastward in future runs. Looking through tonights ecm i'd give this happening as leading favourite. Those widespread ultra low 500's need to ease substantially for a better chance of a strong ridge to take hold

Ric

[carinthian]

Evening, the latest ECM is almost akin to our latest scrip. It is important for cold retention that heights continue to drop to the south of the uk. A pool of cold air not far from the UK. Changes are a coming, a soggy Southern Britain could soon become snow laden landscape come the second half of the month. Will up date latest UBIMET thoughts tomorrow.

c

[Tim Bland]

He was basing his thoughts on the awful ECM32 by itself though.

Read it again and Google the meaning of Contra18 Jan 2014 to Saturday 1 Feb 2014: "Some signals are also emerging for an increasing risk that the weather may undergo a change to colder weather types later this month."This prognosis into late Jan-early Feb is based on some emerging signals from UKMO modelling (i.e. contra EC32). I might be able to offer more on this for you all over next few days. Edited by fergieweather, Today, 17:18.

[damianslaw]

Mentioned yesterday the appearance of an arctic high on the UKMO output, today this feature continues to be shown not just by UKMO but also JMA and now ECM.

 

ECM tends to outperform the GFS when it comes to developments to our NE. Indeed  last winter saw ECM outperforming GFS time and time again with the UKMO often siding more with ECM output, only for GFS have to do u turn after u turn towards the ECM/UKMO. Are we about to see a similar situation now?

 

Meto forecast has suggested a change to a much less mobile set up over recent days and short-term lower heights are projected to dig further south into central northern Europe in response to developing heights north of scandi/Svalbard region.

 

All eyes on the strength and position of the next set of heights due to exit the NE USA seaboard early next week - which will be determined in large part by the position of the upcoming low pressure system due to enter and dominate the mid atlantic Sunday/Monday - this will be a very large feature unusually so with central low heights circular in dimension, with a significant pulse of cold air advection on the western flank - a rapid elongated ridge to the west of the very cold N/NW winds has a very easy chance of developing and it is this development which will prevent the next bout of energy quickly surging eastwards across the mid atlantic. The twin forces of the ridge over the western north atlantic and developing heights to the NE will enable lower heights to get a foothold into central/northern Europe - the outcome is the ECM/UKMO set up - thus very plausible and all a consequence of the position and shape of the upcoming low pressure set to dominate the mid atlantic on Sunday/Monday - it is not a typical atlantic depression and has all the hallmarks of being a major game changer..

[Purga]

Nice as the 12z ECM Op run is the mean still shows an essentially west to east zonal flow with HP to the South & Low Pressure to the North

 

[IDO]

Plus points today for me* UKMO 144 + consistency awsome polar ridging & arctic high allignment which is very very important for cold air westward advection* ECM & JMA height building to the North which steers the atlantic train away towards iceland* The low parked over the UK @120 being modelled further SE ahead of the atlantic ridging to avoid phasingAll in all another strong positive stepPs im dreaming you want a stronger warmer signal to the west of the UK as it demonstrates a strong pulse of WAA from the south which is warmer than the earlier modelling of the westerlyS

 

 

Yes, agree, but preferably further west, and also compare the same change in temps for the op from the 0z to 12z also at T168. For clarity you would need a similar signal:

 

 

Much colder UK bound and more so the further west.

 

By the way the op run is cold all the way through to T348.

Edited January 3, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[IDO]

OOPs:

 

[Purga]

OOPs:

 

eps_pluim_tt_06260 (4).png

Yes as suggested by the mean charts.

[IDO]

Yes as suggested by the mean charts.

 

Thats not an outlier, thats outlandish!

[tight isobar]

Thats not an outlier, thats outlandish!

...!!!?? Outlandish being a word understated by far !!!!!

[UV-RAY]

Read it again and Google the meaning of Contra

18 Jan 2014 to Saturday 1 Feb 2014:

"Some signals are also emerging for an increasing risk that the weather may undergo a change to colder weather types later this month."

This prognosis into late Jan-early Feb is based on some emerging signals from UKMO modelling (i.e. contra EC32). I might be able to offer more on this for you all over next few days.

Edited by fergieweather, Today, 17:18.

Lol, I think I'm fairly well educated enough to understand the meaning of Contra, however when  it comes actually to reading a post correctly, well that's a different matter altogether.  

Edited January 3, 2014 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Captain Shortwave]

OOPs:

 

eps_pluim_tt_06260 (4).png

lol the control, flaming heck.

With respect to the ensembles, the mean suggests that like the op the wedge of heights is positioned further east, this gives a split of conventional zonal with a fair number going for some kind of heights to the north/north east of the UK, depending on the energy upstream interacts with those heights. As the pattern allows for the milder zonal pattern to become a possible solution then the mean will skew compared to the previous run where the options were both below average. 

Fair to say the control run probably is very Jan 1987(ish) with white out conditions for western Europe as the heights align perfectly to throw very cold 850s along with the Atlantic pushing from the opposite direction.

Edited January 3, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[IDO]

lol the control, flaming heck.With respect to the ensembles, the mean suggests that like the op the wedge of heights is positioned further east, this gives a split of conventional zonal with a fair number going for some kind of heights to the north/north east of the UK, depending on the energy upstream interacts with those heights.Fair to say the control run probably is very Jan 1987(ish) with white out conditions for western Europe as the heights align perfectly to throw very cold 850s along with the Atlantic pushing from the opposite direction.

Yes, hopefully as others have said it's the op and control dragging the members in the right direction. A few more ops like that and things may start to get interesting.

[draztik]

day 10-15 temp anomaly

control run from the ecm ens sends Europe and the SE into the freezer.

[cooling climate]

The ECM op run may look outlandish now but give it another few days and perhaps

many will start to realize the potential that lies ahead.

[Purga]

Yes, hopefully as others have said it's the op and control dragging the members in the right direction. A few more ops like that and things may start to get interesting.

We can but hope! But we must be careful of Nick Sussex's blood pressure, the upcoming period could well be a health hazard!

[Frosty.]

This would be a sensational pattern change if it happens, after x number of weeks of autumnal gales / storms and torrential rain / flooding..it does now look like a massive change might be on the way, going from stormy to briefly calmer and drier and then much colder. It's been a long while since there have been charts like these to post which are not T+240 or beyond..Bring on those purples

[nick sussex]

The good or bad thing depending on how you look at this ECM scenario is that we won't have to sit here looking at output at T240hrs to see whether theres a chance, essentially here the easterly will evolve from the 120 to 144hrs output because this is the make or break part of the evolution.

 

There is really a tipping point here, a point of no return either for the phased more zonal solution or the easterly,winner takes all, theres no honourable draw here.

[tight isobar]

The ECM op run may look outlandish now but give it another few days and perhapsmany will start to realize the potential that lies ahead.

.I agree on that one.although further evolution is required,current/previous trending possibilitys are bearing fruit for cold options.dare I say, perhaps not when the cold may hit but from here on in how hard!!??.

[Gaz1985]

Hmmmm.....that finger of uppers near Scandinavia.

 

Today's earlier 12z 

 

Edited January 3, 2014 by Gaz1985

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Still believe winter is far from done yet. Just a reminder that cars were buried under snow in March last year. Also it was spring like apparently before the start of the notorious 1947 where snow was that deep, it was higher than many old mechanical railway signals so my grandfather said! Anyone writing off winter in January needs to be a bit more careful!