Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted (edited)

steve do you think the models will show the atlantic undercut that arctic block tomorrow?or what are the chances of that happening?

 

50/50-

 

to effect the UK-

 

The GFS 18z isn't an undercut the low swings rapidly NE & builds the scandi ridge-  like the ECM did 3 days ago-

 

not a bad chart & I would say close to what the UKMO would look like-

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010218/gfs-0-192.png?18

 

Note the small spec of green heights developing over scandi!& Europe rapidly cooling off

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010218/gfs-1-192.png?18

 

S

 

NAVGEM even more amplified than the GFS 18z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014010218/navgemnh-0-144.png?02-23 

Edited by Steve Murr
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Once again, into FI we get synoptic garbage. A change is seemingly afoot?

 

A reminder of how quickly the continent can cool down given the correct synoptics

 

Posted Image

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted (edited)

50/50-to effect the UK-The GFS 18z isn't an undercut the low swings rapidly NE & builds the scandi ridge- like the ECM did 3 days ago-not a bad chart & I would say close to what the UKMO would look like-http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010218/gfs-0-192.png?18Note the small spec of green heights developing over scandi!& Europe rapidly cooling offhttp://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010218/gfs-1-192.png?18SNAVGEM even more amplified than the GFS 18zhttp://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014010218/navgemnh-0-144.png?02-23

my word what a change on the navgem and gfs!!imagine what it would look like if things carried on the way they are by the 12zs tomorrow.could be staring at some very cold looking charts for the uk. Edited by shaky
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

I don't think the ridge/cut off high would get shunted that far NE for a minute in GFS low res, more energy would undercut I'm sure but just for fun.

It ain't mild!

 

Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Popular Post
Posted

my word what a change on the navgem and gfs!!imagine what it would look like if things carried on the way they are by the 12zs tomorrow.could be staring at some very cold looking charts for the uk.

 

And all it took was for Happy Days to proclaim his shed was safe! lol

  • Like 11
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

cecil if you please CC Posted Image

Massive improvements on 18z, still waiting and hoping (and praying) for that Euro high to find a life somewhere else tho'!

 

Sorry Cecil :p

 

At least Cecil sounds like a grumpy old man....Happy days was far too upbeat lol

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Are we seriously discussing that low res gfs?? Not sure crewe's description of 'sypnotic garbage' does it justice!

High lat pockets of high heights. Where will they go? Where will they affect! Will they verify come day 9?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Are we seriously discussing that low res gfs?? Not sure crewe's description of 'sypnotic garbage' does it justice!

High lat pockets of high heights. Where will they go? Where will they affect! Will they verify come day 9?

 

Not seriously, no.Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
lottiekent Experienced

lottiekent

Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Popular Post
Posted

Seriously cumon!! Not been rude Ian but honestly it's will not play out as been forecast and is always over played to cover backs! The recent forecasted severe floods with high tides hardly played out as forecasted up north. Let's see what happens tomorrow when it doesn't materialise.

Tell that to all those poor people who are currently experiencing flooding! Educate yourself: http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/142151.aspx
  • Like 18
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Popular Post
Posted

Seriously cumon!! Not been rude Ian but honestly it's will not play out as been forecast and is always over played to cover backs! The recent forecasted severe floods with high tides hardly played out as forecasted up north. Let's see what happens tomorrow when it doesn't materialise.

Congrats, not only is this off topic, but this post is an early contender for the prestigious award of "Daftest Post of the Year 2014" award.....please keep on topic and/or think before posting...cheers

  • Like 37
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted (edited)

Considering many places have surface water standing throughout Gloucestershire near the River Severn already, adding the flood warnings being issued hourly by the Environment Agency, I think unfortunately it could play out as they are forecasting to be honest.

We have the Severn Bore due to move up with the high tides tomorrow morning. This and the low pressure causing higher than normal tides on top of that WILL cause problems. Driving down the M5 on New Years Day you could already see flooding around the Gloucester/Tewkesbury area from rainfall alone.

I have friends and family that live along the Severn that are very concerned at the rate of warnings being issued by the EA, with water levels already so high.

I can't speak for other areas, but many coasts facing the SW could be in for a rough time with higher than normal tides from low pressure, strong winds, and rainwater trying to drain towards the coastlines all at the same time.

Yet another deep Low looks like moving in Monday looking at the models, so it will only add to problems.

Edited by Team Jo
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Expect some decent ensembles for the 18z- as the MEAN at 54 has the American low up in the UKMO track ( further NW)

 

Watch them slowly change towards the deep European cold..... can it make it to blighty..

 

S

 

The best part about them getting to grips with it will be seeing the various options played out from there in the pressure charts.

Edited by Mucka
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted

Seriously cumon!! Not been rude Ian but honestly it's will not play out as been forecast and is always over played to cover backs! The recent forecasted severe floods with high tides hardly played out as forecasted up north. Let's see what happens tomorrow when it doesn't materialise.

A shut mouth catches no flies...

 

Interesting developments on the NWP over the last 36 hours, pattern change afoot, but just what it is, who knows, but certainly a move away from zonal storms brewed up by the raging jet, and possibly some HLB suggested… Well called by Steve Murr… No guarantee, but certainly much more promising for those seeking cold.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

back on  topic then please folks.....I think enough has been said here now...ta! Posted Image

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)

Congrats, not only is this off topic, but this post is an early contender for the prestigious award of "Daftest Post of the Year 2014" award.....please keep on topic and/or think before posting...cheers

I think it's won already. I can't imagine a more ludicrous post - even mr crazy snowfan's posts were more sensible.Big temp spreads on latest London ens post the 11th. Decent numbers of cold clusters survive the apparent return of mobility. Edited by bluearmy
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
forecaster Enthusiast

forecaster

Posted
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
Posted

A quick glance at the 2nd Jan EC32 update does not suggest any very big changes during that period from this model.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

I suspect that this will sound crazy with a very powerful PV sat over Eastern Canada/Western Greenland directing a series of lows across the Atlantic straight at us for weeks now, but it looks to me from your 500 mb charts that the pattern whilst being similar has moved between 5 & 10 degrees west. Do you think that this retrogression will be maintained, and if so, how much of a further correction would be needed to bring cold to our neck of the woods? Thanks in advance.

 

I only wish I was capable of telling you DH; the latest NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 this evening are out but I have not had time to digest them and do comparisons with previous outputs. Hopefully tomorrow I will but a quick glance suggests they are not showing the colder option any more strongly than they have so far.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted

I think the warnings can be over used personally. Rarely a day goes past without a weather warning.

Sadly, I suspect that on this occasion the warnings will be justified and I feel for those who will have their lives endangered tonight :-(

Interesting GFS tonight, some positive developments at long last.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...