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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted (edited)

Gem at T204:  post-14819-0-16528000-1389285706_thumb.p

 

It sinks the Scandi High SE and we have...

 

At T222: post-14819-0-25866800-1389285819_thumb.p  T240:  post-14819-0-25127800-1389285894_thumb.p

 

Not even close to this morning!!!

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

I guess its over to the ECM, it's ens were much better than the GFS so I wonder if it knows best....

As I right thinking the METO were siding more with the ECM??

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Gem at T204:  Posted Imagegem-0-204.png

 

It sinks the Scandi High SE and we have...

GEM has lows and heights scattered everywhere.

 

Lets finish with the 12z then we can compare then all at T96 and we will see the differences there.

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Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted

GEM has shown a downgrade which is worrying. It delays the cold and has the northern blocking weakened to some extent. That is not a good trend.

Models this evening giving a bit too much juice to the Atlantic depressions.

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Joe Levy Community Regular

Joe Levy

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
Posted

Low thicknesses and quite cold uppers on the GEM. Frontal snow certainly a possibility on this chart. So many different options yet so close in time! 

Posted Image

Posted Image

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

the gem has potential again does not look like the gem will give up which so far is positive step.

Posted Image

 

True but it is still backing away from bringing -10 850's from around 120 to -6 850's at around 180. It just a continuation of what we have seen through today which is the models backing away from a decent cold spell. Given that trend though I would take the GEM run now. 

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KB123 Rookie

KB123

Posted
  • Location: East Sussex (DfL)
  • Weather Preferences: Diversity!
  • Location: East Sussex (DfL)
Posted

Agreed to a certain extent nick but small changes can have big effects !!Posted Image

 

If the NWP systems weren't all relatively crude -- albeit of course non-trivial! -- mathematical approximations to the natural phenomena around us, I'd agree ;-)   That not being the case, I'm only looking at the graphical output for broad trend guidance, and certainly only looking at the near-term output.  When more distant output appears to match the eventual physical outcome, might that be more coincidence or seasonal steering perhaps in many cases rather than actual forecast skill...?

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Cumulonimbus Tower Apprentice

Cumulonimbus Tower

Posted
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
Posted

I think gfs is what happens when the jet takes a dive to North Africa! It seems that the models have picked up a new signal overnight, which could be the jet dropping further south than previously thought. Seems that there is nothing left to prop the Scandi High or Med Low up with the pressure of the jet removed.

Whatever it is, I think they all react to it in slightly different ways and the GFS is just one very extreme way to react. I'd give them 24 hours to settle down a bit and see where were are left then. From experience It might not turn out as bad as it currently seems.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Waiting with baited breathe for the UKMO +120, could still deliver here from it's +96 chart

Posted Image

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

GFS 8 day temperature anomaly shows the south and Wales staying above normal rather than below, most of the north remains below normal for now

 

Posted Image

 

Normal 2m anomaly temps left expected 2m temps right

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

Posted Image

 

I can't but notice heights pushing in from the Atlantic, GFS also tries this but in low res sends the barrelling through.

 

New period to watch is now 144-192 as I reckon we could see a decent attempt at heights into Greenland.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Well people, it would appear its gone the way of the pear.

 

We have 2 distinct chances of cold draining west over the next 7 days, the first one at 72-96 was always tough - but there was promise- however the cold was initially progged to the NE-

 

The second however looked odds on favourite as the low disrupted & sent energy underneath.

 

Sadly today BOTH attempts are wiped out from deeper more circular lows from the EURO & the GFS.

 

poor -

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010912/UN144-21.GIF?09-17

 

even worse

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010912/gfsnh-0-144.png?12

 

If the ECM does the deeper low scenario its game over im afraid.-  a real pity because for a time it looked great.

 

The H5 anomaly is virtually unchanged barring the scandi high is further SE, the real issue is a slightly enhanced jet pushing further NE & no trough disruption.

 

That's the way it goes sometimes-  may as well say it how it is

 

Still snowy for NE & Scotland on the UKMO 144.

 

S

Edited by Steve Murr
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

UKMO keeps the coldest air away at t120 at t144 as another deep low heads our way

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

YIKES

 

Posted Image

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted

Gem at T204:  Posted Imagegem-0-204.png

 

It sinks the Scandi High SE and we have...

 

At T222: Posted Imagegem-0-222.png  T240:  Posted Imagegem-0-240 (3).png

 

Not even close to this morning!!!

Errrm the Pressure is still high over Scandi on all those frame, indeed @240 the wind direction is easterly over central Britain 

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted

Didn't Steve or someone say the other day that if Lows barrel in from the Atlantic to deep they wont slide SE under the High ? I am sure someone mentioned it.

 

Anyway, quite a shocking flip from the models today. It seems like one of occasions where a forecasted block with cross model aggreement was never even there to begin with.

The experience with the scandi block last year was all models wanted to push low over the top rather than under, GFS being worse than ECM and UKMO for this, closer to the date they would tend to go under. Hopefully it will happen again.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

This run is absolute cobblers, I can't see the low just sitting out west like that and declining in situ.

I'm not giving up yet!

 

Precisely John, don't give up. We've been here before with regard to the stalling low scenario and I would still suggest all the GFS and potentially the UKMO model is doing is delaying the onset of reverse zonality that is the Easterly. Posted Image

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78936-model-output-discussion-1st-january-2014-06z-onwards/?p=2888038

 

A big dose of patience is required and just how long have we waited this winter anyhow, the cold is coming...............

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted

Toss all of our lucky charms in a big pile & hope that GEM is correct today.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0

 

 

Awaiting 120 UKMO to see if there any trough disruption.

The first bite of the cherry is wiped out today.

 

 

S

indeed steve them gem charts although no blocking are rather cold and better than the gfs by far even without the blocking this really is truly mind boggling lets hope noaa might know a little more later.

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warrenb Seasoned

warrenb

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
Posted

GEM OK, Remember 1947, the heights were never great, but it was just a little cold.

I actually like the look of the Meto as well. GFS as usual, all over the place.

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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted (edited)

ukmo nearly identical to the gfs

Posted Image

there is nothing that can be positive about the ukmo run and to be honest I cant see the ukmo and gfs being wrong.

Edited by emotional rollercoaster
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