Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Control run is night and day compared to the 12z....it prolongs the cold....

 

18z

 

 

Compared to the 12z

 

 

It serves to back up what I was saying earlier......this can be extended if things fall into place.

 

EDIT: both updated to 18z now....should have uploaded from comp!

Edited January 8, 2014 by CreweCold

[Captain Shortwave]

Control run is night and day compared to the 12z....it prolongs the cold....

 

18z

 

 

Compared to the 12z

 

 

It serves to back up what I was saying earlier......this can be extended if things fall into place.

That's got -15C minima or lower written all over it, dense cold air over snow covered ground in a slack surface flow. Bitter!

Edited January 8, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[UV-RAY]

It is called sudden because of the sharp increase in stratospheric temperatures and the reversal of zonal winds but it can be forecasted well in advance. But I agree, that if we get this cold spell it will be a bonus.Karyo

Agree, but it can also spring up out of nowhere and tomorrow we could be looking at the first signs of one emerging. Edited January 8, 2014 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Ali1977]

Ens not as great as earlier, and no real positives from Ian F or meto......

Hopefully tomorrow mornings runs are good, ythat should keep all this good forum moral going that has been lacking for the last few months.

[Cheshire Freeze]

At 276 hours, gone are the deep purples around Greenland on the pressure ensemble mean.....good signs are good signs, however small and insignificant they may seem.

Ens not as great as earlier, and no real positives from Ian F or meto......

Hopefully tomorrow mornings runs are good, ythat should keep all this good forum moral going that has been lacking for the last few months.

 

This

 

 

To this....

 

 

Is a positive as far as I'm concerned

 

EDIT: Both charts updated to 18z now....should have uploaded from comp!

Edited January 8, 2014 by CreweCold

[Ali1977]

P11 is great in FI, it reloads the beast

[Cheshire Freeze]

P11 is great in FI, it reloads the beast

 

More than I thought actually go the 1963 Scandi-Greenland-Scandi route in FI.....if only!

[SnowBallz]

It is called sudden because of the sharp increase in stratospheric temperatures and the reversal of zonal winds but it can be forecasted well in advance. 

But I agree, that if we get this cold spell it will be a bonus.

 

Karyo

 

Indeed.

 

It can.

 

[fergieweather]

It is called sudden because of the sharp increase in stratospheric temperatures and the reversal of zonal winds but it can be forecasted well in advance. But I agree, that if we get this cold spell it will be a bonus. Karyo

Refer to SnowBallz last.... we say no more.

[bradymk]

Indeed.

 

It can.

 

Refer to SnowBallz last.... we say no more.

Is this a metoffice hint to what GloSea5 might be showing at the moment for the future?

[snowbob]

Refer to SnowBallz last.... we say no more.

what part theBonusOrAdvance Edited January 9, 2014 by snowbob

[Cheshire Freeze]

Is this a metoffice hint to what GloSea5 might be showing at the moment for the future?

 

That's the way I read it....sure Chiono etc would have picked up on it by now though!

[nick sussex]

An interesting fax chart from the UKMO, for you night owls whats the small but very significant little detail?

 

 

Okay some of you will have got it, for those perhaps new to this model thread a cryptic clue, the World sets its time to somewhere near this.Right my final clue seeing as you're a tough crowd!!! lol GMT

 

Right the answer to my quiz question is that reverse occlusion near the se, its wanting to head west not east, you will often find these shown when you get trough disruption and a battle between block and low, you'll see the symbols facing east and then eventually the reverse if the block is exerting pressure.

 

At this range of course we should expect those fax charts to change. Very late here now so I'll bid you all goodnight, heres to some nice model outputs tomorrow.

Edited January 9, 2014 by nick sussex

[Interitus]

We can still get cold even with the vortex in place. Believe January 1987 was a prime example, along with 2009/10 correct me if I'm wrong.

 

January 1987 featured a strong SSW and there was also a weak one in February 2010 - but essentially you are correct, though they were followed by cold spells for the UK, by far the colder weather in both winters preceded the SSWs when the vortex was still relatively strong.

[Panayiotis]

An interesting fax chart from the UKMO, for you night owls whats the small but very significant little detail?

 

fax120s.gif

 

Okay some of you will have got it, for those perhaps new to this model thread a cryptic clue, the World sets its time to somewhere near this.Right my final clue seeing as you're a tough crowd!!! lol GMT

You are on about the occluded front right? Will this however be moved more south and west as we get nearer the time, this has happened countless times in the past...

Edited January 9, 2014 by Panayiotis

[snowbob]

Although today has been very exciting in terms of cold potential

We all need to spare a thought for the long suffering company known as British gas

I'm sure tonight will come as a big blow to them at this moment in time with the economic state. Of finances in our country.

Easy to get carried away with model euphoria.

But we really should spare a thought for those that are going to make billions from our excitement

Lol

[syed2878]

well what a day of model watching it's been excelent outputs from 00h to 18h runs. It's been some turn around by some of the models, however lets keep our feets on the ground it's not stil in the bag yet. Credit to rjs he did say we would be in for a cold blast from 15th jan onward in his winter forecast. Lets hope the 00h today gives us a good start for another exciting day of model watching.

[mike Meehan]

Though it needs to cool down  a tad in Scandinavia, central and northern Europe to get the best benefit.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Paul

[Ali1977]

Not looking too good at T96, everything further East.....

[Met4Cast]

Oh dear..

 

 

Entire pattern further East, might still undercut but the undercutting will take place over the UK rather than to the West/South-West keeping us in the milder Atlantic airmass for considerably longer.

[Ali1977]

174 LOOKING GOOD

[Snowmad79]

Oh dear..

 

gfsnh-0-108.png

 

Entire pattern further East, might still undercut but the undercutting will take place over the UK rather than to the West/South-West keeping us in the milder Atlantic airmass for considerably longer.

 

Oh dear indeed. Maybe we should wait for the other model 00z runs before making any assumptions ? The GFS still goes on to show some potential after 108hrs....

[Met4Cast]

After a lot of faffing around we finally get there by +174 with an undercut and cold air advancing Westwards

 

 

Not the best start and delays the cold further from the 18z.

[shaky]

After a lot of faffing around we finally get there by +174 with an undercut and cold air advancing Westwards

 

Finally.png

 

Not the best start and delays the cold further from the 18z.

thats the problem!!delays after delays!!ukmo will hopefully be better!!

[Stu_London]

slightly disappointing 0z GFS for coldies

 

Cold is delayed into southern parts until the low res part of the run and then the uppers run out of steam after a short while

 

Some ropey operational runs were inevitable given the ensemble split that has been prevailing and with the overall NH profile looking decidedly dicey this may prove to be a first bite of the cherry scenario as often happens with easterlies.

 

Taking a positive spin on matters, there could be a decent enough battleground situation with possible snow events for some parts in about a week.

 

Additionally, a rather tame easterly effort (or one that even collapses completely) can be followed up by a more sustained cold spell later as happened frequently in the 80s and a couple of times in the mid 2000s, although the latter ones ran into the later part of the season where it all got a bit marginal, something that isn't a problem for us, yet.

 

Edit: Deep FI offers the prospect of a reload of sorts, however the Azores High becomes something of a spoiler and needs to do one. In any event, no point stressing too much over +300 hour output, but something to monitor on future output.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Stu_London