Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Hmmmm.....that finger of uppers near Scandinavia.

 

Today's earlier 12z 

 

 

Good shout. Almost identical there.

[chris55]

OOPs:

 

eps_pluim_tt_06260 (4).png

That is one hell of a control run!!!!! But the op is not to far away.

[tight isobar]

Hmmmm.....that finger of uppers near Scandinavia.

 

Today's earlier 12z 

 

.compare, has to be arisen, very 87

[cold snap]

Well i never !nice shorts from ECM

Trending colder ,and colder -5 line breached

[bluearmy]

the control from ecm also develops a scandi ridge (no surprise there looking at de bilt) but in contrast to the ecm op it brings a wedge of deep cold uppers west (hence the dutch temps and draztiks chart above).

 

the overall ens pattern (and this includes naefs ) is now dropping the ensuing trough to our west. naefs then drives it ne and takes us back into cool zonal though with a tendency to drop the troughing further south rom time to time. ecm not so keen now to take the low heights ne and seems to get stuck with the troughing in our area. are we approaching a battleground scenario ? both ecm and gefs/gem are happy to develop low euro anomolys but we were here a week or so ago and they didnt verify.  its now becoming interesting and tbh, i dont consider the ecm 12z op to be a sypnotic outlier, given the general ens and anomolys from the model.

[Methuselah]

With any luck, the warm seas will cause a snow bonanza...I wonder what the pub run will show?

[R.P. McMurphy]

With any luck, the warm seas will cause a snow bonanza...I wonder what the pub run will show?

 

Good point, convection !

 

It's not a Pub Run Mr Tattum !!!

[Gibby]

Hi folks. Here is the report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday January 3rd 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm.

 

All models continue the very unsettled and disturbed spell of weather with the showery SW flow being complicated by morning by further troughs moving up from the SW late in the night with further heavy rain at times in squally winds. Tomorrow shows this troughing moving North over the UK with showery west winds returning to the SW later. On Sunday a short window of better weather is the precursor to further strong winds and rain later in the day and into Monday in association with another powerful Winter storm winding up to the West and NW of Scotland on Monday. There will be sunshine and very squally showers from the word 'go' in the SW returning later in the day to all areas. Then over Tuesday and Wednesday all models show pressure rising slowly as the Low pressure to the North fills but with a trough close to the South further prolonged rain may affect the South for a time towards midweek while showers largely continue elsewhere.

 

GFS then shows further unsettled weather later next week and through next weekend as less significant troughs bring bands of rain Eastward across the UK at times in average temperatures. Then later in the run the Atlantic flow strengthens again with further big storms possible to batter the UK with rain and gales by the runs end in continuing temperatures close to average.

 

The GFS Ensembles show little change from previous runs with the majority of members maintaining largely average temperatures for this time of year with Westerly winds carrying rain and strong winds at times across the UK though on this set not to the severe extent of recent events.

 

UKMO tonight closes it's run next Thursday with a showery WNW flow ahead of a brief ridge of High pressure covering the UK in sunshine and showers with further unsettled conditions out to the West in the Atlantic poised to affect the UK again late in the week and into the weekend.

 

GEM keeps things very unsettled again all the way out to the end of its run in 10 days time. With west and then SW winds there will be further rain or showers at times in blustery winds less strong than recently.

 

NAVGEM shows a belt of Low pressure still across Northern waters with a Westerly flow still blowing across the UK albeit much lighter than of late. There is still scope for occasional rainfall though the South could become rather drier as pressure has built stronger to the South and SE later next week.

 

ECM shows a very complex pattern setting up later next week as a gentle shift towards colder but still unsettled weather is well on the cards on tonight's operational. High pressure builds over Scandinavia and with a Jet flow moving South some undercutting is permitted throwing the risk of rain, sleet and snow coming up from the SW late next week with a colder, less windy period likely to last through the weekend and into the following week.

 

The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart continues to look as this morning heavily biased towards Low pressure more likely to be towards the NW of the UK and High to the South with a Westerly flow still indicative over the UK.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow retaining it's current strong East trajectory over the Atlantic towards France or Southern Britain over the next 5 to 7 days. Thereafter it tends to more Southerly levels over the second period of the run indicating the threat of colder weather, though this more likely from Polar maritime air from the NW rather than the East on this run.

 

In Summary there remains a lot of support for the weather to remain largely unsettled across the UK over the next few weeks with sustained dry weather looking unlikely. However, the strong winds of late should decrease to more modest and average levels given the synoptics as shown. ECM looks much more encouraging for cold weather lovers tonight with it's operational showing a Scandinavian High and undercutting Low pressure towards the SW throwing the risk of lower temperatures and the chance of snowfall to some areas even in the South in among the rainier spells. Whether this is a one off or is expanded upon over subsequent runs is open for debate but it shouldn't be discounted as the Atlantic train, though not lying down becomes less of a ferocious beast with time creating better opportunity for pressure to rise either to the South or North-east later.

[draztik]

Talk of 87? Seriously guys..

So while the op and control from ecm trend cold this evening, we lack support from the ext ecm ens, naefs and NOAA, with little indication of a strong scandi block and subsequent easterly. Not wishing to rain on the parade... But we have a long way to go before we nail the eventual pattern.

Edited January 3, 2014 by draztik

[MR EXTREMES]

I think the models are really struggling and colder outlook seems to being looked at though tinted glasses.

Pressure is not lowering to our south and into Europe there is in my mind a strong likely hood that in the next few days we will see a more Atlantic dominated outlook from the models remember the ecm in November and start of december.

I'm sorry fi is T92 from all models until we see where and when the Atlantic vortex powered weather can break the cycle.

So far there's still no strong support with in T92.

Edited January 3, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[Biggin]

Yes, the wording in that posting intrigued me - perhaps reading too much into what was written but got the impression something further range had interesting output.

Me too IF is such a tease...

[shotski]

With any luck, the warm seas will cause a snow bonanza...I wonder what the pub run will show?

Well I had a swim in Hemsby in July and I call tell you that sea was anything but warm    

[bluearmy]

Talk of 87? Seriously guys..So while the op and control from ecm trend cold this evening, we lack support from the ext ecm ens, naefs and NOAA, with little indication of a strong scandi block and subsequent easterly. Not wishing to rain on the parade... But we have a long way to go before we nail the eventual pattern.

 

all true but as has been said already, if the ops are on the money here then the block will establish. the ens would not be seeing this in enough numbers yet so the mean is unrepresentative. the ens are thereafter correct to keep the jet coming but that then splits against the block and supports it with further WAA to the west and depressions undercutting. so the extended ens are not an issue IF the block establishes. currently, its not the favourite but its close to becoming a trend.

[Rocheydub]

We have all been here before. With respect to Steve Murr's excellent posts, the ECM is prone to overblowing HP cells in the NWP in higher latitudes, and while the UKMO is encouraging, we MUST temper the excitement of the SACRA members here.I more than anyone here, love my cold and snowy weather, but I will not get over excited until this comes within the 120/96 hour timeframe.

 

Call me grumpy… I just think it's experience!

 

I still await this evenings GFS output and looking for similar evolutions!!!

[tight isobar]

I think the models are really struggling and colder outlook seems to being looked at though tinted glasses.Pressure is not lowering to our south and into Europe there is in my mind a strong likely hood that in the next few days we will see a more Atlantic dominated outlook from the models remember the ecm in November and start of december.I'm sorry fi is T92 from all models until we see where and when the Atlantic vortex powered weather can break the cycle.So far there's still no strong support with in T92.

I think the models are really struggling and colder outlook seems to being looked at though tinted glasses.Pressure is not lowering to our south and into Europe there is in my mind a strong likely hood that in the next few days we will see a more Atlantic dominated outlook from the models remember the ecm in November and start of december.I'm sorry fi is T92 from all models until we see where and when the Atlantic vortex powered weather can break the cycle.So far there's still no strong support with in T92.

.although no solid support atm, as we know the models (cross) whether part reliable or otherwise ultimately do not dictate for sure evolutionary fruition.they do However give a reasonably fair idea (most) of eventual prognosis.And with current trends and output throwing up the cold fruition possibilitys,It's as good a punt screaming the odds as not....that's why looking for what maybe, is as good as what may not.

[Tom Jarvis]

I think the difference with the heights in the ECM is on previous episodeds when it increases heights it hasn't had support from the UKMO when it came into range. However this time the UKMO has the same sort of evolution up to 144h with the UKMO being slightly better.

So this time the UKMO and ECM have blocking setting up.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

Tom

Edited January 3, 2014 by Tom Jarvis

[phil nw.]

Encouraging to see an ECM op showing that even in the midst of this endless Atlantic rain and wind there is a way to get cold if the Greenland chunk of vortex starts to warm and retreat.

It remains to be seen if the ECM op is too bullish on that Scandi high but it's encouraging that all the models show a weakening and slowing of the Atlantic mobility later next week.

[gottolovethisweather]

FYI, a regional perspective of how things might pan out up to mid-January, hopefully still be of use to some.

 

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http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78938-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-1114-18z/?p=2883995

Edited January 3, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Cloud 10]

Quite a swing towards a colder outlook from the ECM 12z ensembles,a big change from the 00z.

 

 

 

Differences at day 10 between ECM and NAEFS with the ecm not having the euro high

anomaly.

 

ecm..  naefs..

 

 

..pub run's turn now.

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Talk of 87? Seriously guys..

So while the op and control from ecm trend cold this evening, we lack support from the ext ecm ens, naefs and NOAA, with little indication of a strong scandi block and subsequent easterly. Not wishing to rain on the parade... But we have a long way to go before we nail the eventual pattern.

The thinner the line between the freezer and zonality, the less likely the ens will get near the blocking solution (if it were to verify).

Whilst 87 clearly had a much better high to work with, we could easily have very cold air from the North east hitting against very unstable air moving in from the Atlantic, very much ike the last few weeks which has produce enough instability to generate thunderstorms even away from windward coasts. These are high stakes and given the high chance of game over being achieved early on. It's best to sit back and enjoy the output because if that Siberian freight train reaches us. We might get buried. if it doesn't we continue on our merry way through this rather rubbish winter.

Question is, do you feel lucky punk  

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is trending colder which is a good sign and there are some peachy perturbations, P20 will do nicely thank you... BOOM   

Edited January 3, 2014 by Frosty.

[Rocheydub]

Nothing drastically different so far on GFS 18z. Was expecting to see some early support for ECM… Alas, out to 150 hrs, nowt...

[shaky]

Am tellin you now that we gona see ecm backing off in the morning!!its just our darn luck this winter and if it has not backtracked by the morning I will be in utter shock!!

[tight isobar]

Here is now where I would be looking for trending 18z GFS/12 z ECM..156/+240..

[nick sussex]

Although we don't manage the bells and whistles run from the GFS  18hrs run it has edged towards the ECM in terms of orientation of PV and the pattern to the ne, also a little more energy heading se.

 

The phase though occurs so that's the end of the excitement for this evening, its incredible just how finely balanced this set up is, makes for avid model viewing but not good for the nerves if you're looking for some colder weather and snow.