South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 31/12/13

[SF-02]

Lucky buggers in the states. Proper winters there. The squall line changes from a thick red line out west until Reading way and then to a tiny slither with mostly yellow and fragmenting as it reaches London. Pretty standard over the last couple of days and nothing there really at all.

Edited January 3, 2014 by SF-02

[Jason T]

This will make you laugh....https://twitter.com/GeorgeTakei/status/418947913843499008/photo/1

[Charltonkerry]

Morning All, hope you are all well, was I the only who heard thunder last night, heard two rolls in quick succession, certainly sounded like thunder but as know one reported anything I doubt I need, can promise it wasn't curry related as I and the misses didn't have one! Dry out at present with a breeze, not gentle stronger than that. Clouds are scudding by.

For those at work an important announcement its POETS day, I know the days of the week are confusing at this time, but its Friday. That's my good deed done for the week.

I know you are all interested in my love (don't tell her indoors) sport, expect an announcement that Charlton has been taken over today, by a multimillionaire Belguim business man, this hopefully stablish our future and make it interesting for the next few years, as the only way to stop championship teams from losing money is promotion to the premiership. Inspection at the valley today to see if the FA cup match can go ahead on Saturday, I doubt if the ground will be passed fit. Cricket isn't to bad either after this awful performance it appear the bowlers have started to strike back let's hope the batsmen can as well?

Had a very disappointing phone call from a senior engineer yesterday who for understandable reasons decided to hand in his notice, it only took us two years to recruit him, so must admit to being really peed off about that, nothing we can do to prevent him leaving, not money related but too much travelling, shame as he's a very good engineer and I spent the whole interview telling him how much travelling he would have to do. Oh well back to recruiting, something I don't enjoy, but we got to employ a few more refrigeration engineers, ideally senior ones at that, trouble is they are as rare as hens teeth. Whilst on the work front this year is looking manic, had a long conversation with my main customer who has decided to advance his his plans for expansion by around 6 months, which will put me under pressure, the first order will now be in February / march time followed by a big one in July / August time, so could be around 8 millions pound worth that will need to be complete by September 2015, with a similar value by a year later. Lucky I am still on holiday!

I hope all those that might be affected by the weather stay safe and dry, and you all have a great day, thanks john and Coast for all your updates, and technical bit and pieces, so looking forward to the weather settling down, and the cooler weather arriving, who knows we might even get some frosts and snow, but let's hope mother don't swing to much in that direction as she has with the wind and the rain, would hate to see a long cold and snowy period as I have already survived a winter of 62/63!

[Jason T]

 http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/31618.aspx

 

This nasty weather pattern we are in needs to really bugger off now, Its absolutely ridiculous.

Edited January 3, 2014 by Jason T

[Biggin]

Squall line just passing thro here, some quite beefy rain n gusts.

[Captain Shortwave]

It was clear 10 minutes ago, but now it's chucking it down and rather blowy.

[Jimmyh]

Sorry to disagree peeps squall has hit east London and it is torrential

[Whereisthesnow?]

Typical - 5 mins earlier calm as anything. Moment I need to leave for the station the heavens open!

[Coast]

but I'm in bed on iPad.

 

That sounds uncomfortable Jules, I have memory foam......

 

Morning all!!!

 

Escaped with a few gusty blows up to 29.0 mph in the night, but the main thrust of activity for the next few days hasn't really got here yet:

 

 

http://en.allmetsat.com/images/meteosat_nrlmry_slp.php

 

(but look how tight those isobars are out in the Atlantic)

 

Looking totally mad over the others side of the puddle near Canada!

 

 

But the inevitable looks to be on it's way yet again:

 

 

Just using Station 62103 - The Channel Lightship you can see things have calmed down relatively at the moment:

 

 

(no gust data currently)

 

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=62103

 

I'll be keeping an eye on the Channel coast data, especially wave heights from here:

 

http://www.channelcoast.org/data_management/real_time_data/charts/

 

Local to me:

 

 

Right, that's now but lets see what's in store for later.

[hernebaylooby]

Morning all well as im sure you all are im getting fed up with this current weather! Feels like im stuck in October!

[snow raven]

Piddling down here atm. Soooo pleased I am snug and warm in bed and don't have to go to work today!

Back to work on Monday though - can't say I am relishing the thought!

[Atlantis]

Morning everyone. A really heavy squally shower just passed through here! Wind was really gusting and rain torrential.

Feel sorry for those in south west as they are getting hit really badly this morning if BBC is anything to go by.

Stay safe today everyone. The seaside is not the place to be today!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Not lliking the look of tonight/tomorrows rain that is now showing in the models..looks like we coulf get a lot!

[Coast]

It seems ESTOFEX have the weekends onslaught summed up well in their extensive forecast this morning, I've highlighted what is applicable to us:

 

 

Storm Forecast

Valid: Fri 03 Jan 2014 06:00 to Sat 04 Jan 2014 06:00 UTC

Issued: Fri 03 Jan 2014 00:02

Forecaster: TUSCHY

 

A level 1 was issued for Ireland, UK, NW-France, parts of the Netherlands and Denmark mainly for severe to damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado event.

 

A level 1 was issued for NW-Portugal, NW Spain and SW Spain mainly for severe wind gusts, heavy rain and an isolated tornado event.

 

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

 

Fueled by an outbreak of very cold arctic air from E-Canada, an extensive low pressure area grows into a 970 hPa vortex, which covers most of the N-Atlantic. Embedded in that vortex, numerous smaller-scale vortices or mid-tropospheric waves exist. One of those vortices is placed between Ireland and Scotland with a surface pressure between 955 and 960 hPa. This feature drifts to the north/northeast during the forecast with a gradual weakening trend anticipated. Thereafter, numerous more or less pronounced mid-tropospheric waves cross Ireland and UK. Finally a pocket of very cold air at 500 hPa enters the scene from the W during the night and results in a rapidly amplifying trough west of Ireland. Those features will be discussed below:

 

Ireland and Scotland, ongoing at 06 Z until 18 Z:

 

Despite missing convection, a short hint at that wind event seems reasonable. Phase diagrams and diverse model data show one of the most remarkable warm-core events for quite some while with the sub-960 hPa depression N of Ireland moving to the NE ... even showing a deep warm-core structure. A well structured occlusion, connected to a subtropical air mass, bends into that vortex and to its south. This scenario provokes a compact damaging wind field beneath a 850 hPa jet core with wind speeds of 35 to 45 m/s (peak strength during the start of the forecast). Despite gradual weakening a swath of damaging winds likely affects Ireland and Scotland during the daytime hours from SW to NE. Despite the magnitude of that wind event, missing convection precludes the issuance of any level areas.

 

S-C Ireland, UK all the way to Denmark:

 

Behind an eastward sliding occlusion (the same, which provokes the scenario above), deep CAA will be underway with 500 hPa temperatures falling to -30 °C and less. SSTs west of Ireland exceed 11 °C with a marginal decrease towards Ireland and UK. Sufficient vertical lapse rates are forecast for active and deep post-frontal marine convection. Strong and still predominantly unidirectioanl shear accompanies that convection, so downward mixing of 25 m/s winds at 850 hPa cause severe winds to be the main hazard ... next to sleet. However, at least two embedded mid-layer impulses during that forecast increase concerns about more organized convection:

 

The first wave affects S-UK/NW France (09 to 15Z) with a rapid SW-NE motion. Surface pressure fields confirm a weak stamp at low-levels with a temporal increase of BL mixing ratios. Coupled to cooling mid-levels, 200-500 J/kg SBCAPE seems likely over S-UK and NW France. Faint backing ahead of that wave also increases LL directional shear with latest GFS output confirming SRH-1 in excess of 200 m^/s^2. Modest forcing, favorable placement beneath the left exit of a powerful 500 hPa jet, a weakly capped air mass, a 70kt storm motion vector aligned near parallel to a LL wind shift/convergence zone and aforementioned CAPE increase confidence in numerous fast moving showers/isolated thunderstorms with some bowing (severe wind gust) and tornado potential. A compact line of deeper convection could also cause a swath of severe wind gusts. This wind gust risk extends also offshore (east of SE-UK) and may affect the Netherlands and Denmark between noon and the evening hours. Behind that convection, a temporal decrease of convection is forecast over S-UK. However, GFS/WRF show a tongue of slightly unstable air to reside over the Netherlands into Denmark during the evening and overnight hours. A few thunderstorms are possible and favorable directional and speed shear once again point to severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat. Hence the level 1 area was expanded well inland over the Netherlands and Denmark.

 

Around noon, an even more pronounced wave approaches Ireland from the west and affects UK during the late afternoon and evening hours. This one keeps directional shear enhanced although decreasing BL moisture and late timing should insert a weakening trend of onshore CAPE during the late afternoon and evening hours. With 850 hPa background flow increasing to 30 m/s it will be hard to distinguish between gusts from the gradient wind flow and convectively induced gusts. The risk however exists for severe to damaging wind gusts .. especially next to showers/isolated thunderstorms. An isolated funnel/tornado event can't be ruled out as well.

 

Finally a third wave with very cold mid-layer air (500 hPa below -35°C) pushes east towards Ireland. Rapid amplification of that wave into a large upper trough induces a slowdown and keeps that trough west of Ireland. Nevertheless, it taps into rather moist marine air west of Portugal, Spain and over the Bay of Biscay. Differential WAA increases mid-level lapse rates atop onshore streaming moist marine air over the Iberian Peninsula and France. Isolated to scattered elevated and non-severe thunderstorms are forecast. The westward facing coasts of N-Portugal and Spain however could see surface based activity with strong shear. Severe wind gusts, an isolated tornado event, heavy rain and marginal hail are possible with that activity. France was excluded due to the late arrivial of the trough (probably beyond 06Z). 

A similar risk is forecast for SW Spain between 00-06 Z. A tongue of subtropical air / high moisture points towards SW Spain with strong shear and moderate MLCAPE. Heavy rain, severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado event are possible.

 

For the rest of Europe no thunderstorm activity is anticipated (despite isolated storms south of Turkey beneath cooling mid-levels).

 

 

What can I say, it's going to be mad!

Morning everyone. A really heavy squally shower just passed through here! Wind was really gusting and rain torrential.

 

Morning Atlanits, it's just got here! 

[Coast]

Can't seem to find any good news this morning, please check this out though:

 

Skywarn update:

 

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WARNING - PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION #002

 

ISSUED: 2345UTC THURSDAY 2ND JANUARY 2014

 

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A WARNING FOR PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS:

 

STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS - (COASTAL AREAS OF) SOUTHWESTERN, SOUTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN ENGLAND, WALES & IOM

 

IN EFFECT UNTIL 2100UTC FRIDAY 3RD JANUARY 2014

 

DEEP LOW GENERATING SEVERE GALES AND STORM SURGE, COINCIDENT WITH SEASONALLY HIGH TIDES

 

DISCUSSION:

 

THERE IS STRONG MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF A DANGEROUS WEATHER RISK DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON OF FRIDAY. A DEEP LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL GENERATE A LONG WAVE TRAIN AND UP TO 1.5M SURGE WHICH WILL AFFECT MOST AREAS OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. GIVEN HIGH TIDES DURING THE MORNING, AND THE PEAK OF THE EXPECTED WAVE AND SURGE EFFECTS EARLY AFETRNOON, THERE IS SCOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG WITH EXCEPTIONAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING TIDAL ESTUARY REGIONS ALSO. WAVE HEIGHTS IN STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT, PERHAPS UP TO 10M IN PLACES AND WITH LONG-PERIOD SWELLS LEADING TO EXCESSIVE VOLUMES OF WATER OVER-TOPPING SEA DEFENCES. THIS WARNING MAY BE UPDATED. DIRECT OBSERVATION AND TRAVEL ARE NOT ADVISED FOR COASTAL REGIONS OF THE WARNING AREAS.

 

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA

 

**** alerts contd below ****

 

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WARNING #001

ISSUED: 1530UTC THURSDAY 2ND JANUARY 2014

 

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A WARNING FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS:

STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS - WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SCOTLAND, NORTHERN IRELAND & IOM, NORTHERN ENGLAND, WALES, SOUTHWEST ENGLAND

HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO A RISK OF LOCALISED FLOODING - WESTERN SCOTLAND, NORTHWEST & SOUTHWEST ENGLAND, SOUTHEAST ENGLAND

 

IN EFFECT UNTIL 0900UTC SATURDAY 5TH JANUARY 2014

 

DEEP LOW PASSING CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST, GENERATING SEVERE GALES AND DAMAGING GUSTS

 

DISCUSSION:

 

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER RISKS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, A SUB-950MB LOW APPROACHES IRELAND BRINGING 40-50MPH MEAN WINDS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 80MPH TO COASTAL NORTHERN IRELAND AND MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SCOTAND, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN ISLES. DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME, THE UNSTABLE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT MOVES ACROSS IRELAND AND THE REST OF THE MAINLAND BRINGING MEAN WINDS OF 40MPH AND GUSTS ABOVE 70MPH THOUGH MAINLY AROUND COASTS AND HIGH GROUND. GIVEN THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDES, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE WARNING PERIOD FROM OVER-TOPPING WAVES.

 

GENERALLY AROUND 10-25MM OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD, AWAY FROM THE EAST, THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS MAY INCUR HIGHER AMOUNTS OWING TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. MANY AREAS COULD SEE SOME FLASH FLOODING DEPENDENT ON RIVER AND GROUNDWATER LEVELS. DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF SATURDAY, A FURTHER WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY DELIVER SOME HEAVY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BURSTS OF RAINFALL TO AREAS OF SOUTHERN ENGLAND, WHICH FURTHER ENHANCES THE FLOOD RISK. THIS WARNING MAY BE UPDATED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

 

 

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Wave one blah blah.. Wave two.. Blah blah.. Wave three..

Lord have mercy :'( it's like the whole Atlantic is being dumped on England...

[Coast]

 

Convective rain

 

 

Worst wind gusts may be more out in the Channel at first:

 

 

But then:

 

 

 

 

[Team Jo]

Left the house at 7 to drive to the station and the heavens opened! Took me twice as long because of the surface water and just sheer volume of rain, plus the gusts down the country lanes made it hard to keep my little car straight!

I just hope we don't have yet another QEII crossing closure tonight, I've got a tesco delivery coming at 7!

Stay safe (and dry) everyone

[chilly milly]

Thank goodness that lot's over with.  What an awful couple of hours worth of weather!

 

Going to dash the dog out in the dry spot and then we have a funeral to go to this morning.  I hope it stays dry for that at least.

 

I really don't relish the continued onslaught of this weather, but I am thankful that I am nowhere near anywhere likely to be flooded.  I do feel for those that are, though.  I hope you all stay safe.

 

Take care and have the best day you can.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Mods delete this post if you feel free but I wanted to show how local weather makes such a diffrence..

 

THIS IS FROM THE V6 NETWEATHER RADAR I WOULD URGE PEOPLE TO BUY IT IS A TRULY WONDERFUL TOOL AND AT ONLY JUST OVER £3 ITS A STEAL! PLUS COAST SAID IF I GET PEOPLE TO SIGN UP HE WILL GIVE ME 10%  okay the last bit is a lie...

 

 

This is the accumulated rainfall in the past 1 hour... just look at the amount of rain that one squall dropped... This is why models won't pick these up... They will pick the ingredients to make these local weather events but won't place them..

[Coast]

PLUS COAST SAID IF I GET PEOPLE TO SIGN UP HE WILL GIVE ME 10%  okay the last bit is a lie...

 

I don't get any commission from it! 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I don't get any commission from it! 

 

I thought I was ment to pay you 2% out of my 10%?  

[Coast]

Taking this 24 hours at a time, Met O show the peak of the next attack tonight:

 

 

 

I know we've seen worse peaks recently, but it's the combination and relentless procession of things that could accumulate between now and Monday.

 

 

 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Taking this 24 hours at a time, Met O show the peak of the next attack tonight:

 

Met O gusts.PNG

 

rain.PNG

 

I know we've seen worse peaks recently, but it's the combination and relentless procession of things that could accumulate between now and Monday.

 

This illustrates nicely too..

 

These winds moving North very quickly..

 

Tonight/tomorrow perhaps the odd rumble in this?

[Atlantis]

Hi Coast. It's not looking good for our area from the charts you kindly posted is it? Just checked the environment agency and there are flood alerts all along our stretch of the coastline. They have removed the flood alert for the River Uck, but not sure how long that will last if we get the predicted rainfall as it looks horrendous.