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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 31/12/13

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
in Regional

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted (edited)

I wish I could post better news:

 

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WARNING #001
ISSUED: 1530UTC THURSDAY 2ND JANUARY 2014
 
SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A WARNING FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS:
 
STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS - WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SCOTLAND, NORTHERN IRELAND & IOM, NORTHERN ENGLAND, WALES, SOUTHWEST ENGLAND
 
HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO A RISK OF LOCALISED FLOODING - WESTERN SCOTLAND, NORTHWEST & SOUTHWEST ENGLAND, SOUTHEAST ENGLAND
 
IN EFFECT UNTIL 0900UTC SATURDAY 5TH JANUARY 2014
 
DEEP LOW PASSING CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST, GENERATING SEVERE GALES AND DAMAGING GUSTS
 
DISCUSSION:
 
THERE IS GOOD MODE AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER RISKS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, A SUB-950MB LOW APPROACHES IRELAND BRINGING 40-50MPH MEAN WINDS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 80MPH TO COASTAL NORTHERN IRELAND AND MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SCOTAND, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN ISLES. DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME, THE UNSTABLE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT MOVES ACROSS IRELAND AND THE REST OF THE MAINLAND BRINGING MEAN WINDS OF 40MPH AND GUSTS ABOVE 70MPH THOUGH MAINLY AROUND COASTS AND HIGH GROUND. GIVEN THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDES, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE WARNING PERIOD FROM OVER-TOPPING WAVES.
 
GENERALLY AROUND 10-25MM OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD, AWAY FROM THE EAST, THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS MAY INCUR HIGHER AMOUNTS OWING TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. MANY AREAS COULD SEE SOME FLASH FLOODING DEPENDENT ON RIVER AND GROUNDWATER LEVELS. DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF SATURDAY, A FURTHER WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY DELIVER SOME HEAVY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BURSTS OF RAINFALL TO AREAS OF SOUTHERN ENGLAND, WHICH FURTHER ENHANCES THE FLOOD RISK. THIS WARNING MAY BE UPDATED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

 

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/

 

High tide tomorrow in the SE is around midday (12:12 and 7.90m in Eastbourne)

Edited by Coast
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john pike Maestro

john pike

Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
Posted (edited)

Hi John - with regards to the temperature chart...is the yellow average line the average of the runs or the long term average? And what is the blue NCEP line referring to?

 

hi lottie

 

the yellow is the average between the runs including the ensembles of ecm

 

the blue line is the op gfs 00 run

 

regards

 

john

Edited by john pike
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PiggiePalace Enthusiast

PiggiePalace

Posted
  • Location: BA3 Midsomer Norton
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and no more than 25degC
  • Location: BA3 Midsomer Norton
Posted

Stll lhere with the engineer whose was abandoned 6hrs ago....Fed/watered ....now watching Oblivion

xxxx

 

This was contractor no 11 who finally got picked up by his mate at 6am this morning. (Contractors nos 9 and 10 having appeared and disappeared yesterday lunchtime without saying a word about was was going on)

 

Today contractors nos .12, 13 and 14 have arrived and left.....but we are finally making progress

 

I have succeeded where 14 sets of contractors have failed. I have managed to identify the make and model of the pumping installation and printed out circuit diagrams and technical manuals for contractor no 15 -  two lads currently on site. They have not only brought their own ladder with them, but think they have identified the problem

 

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

If we are lucky they may be able to get the parts from a distributor I have found locally  and fit them later tonight....Otherwise they will have to be here all through the night and will fit the parts tomorrow.

 

Furthermore the flood door manufacturers are back at work today and have agreed to send someone down tomorrow to see if they can stop the rain coming in Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Now we are on the way to getting everything fixed and watertight, this run of awful wet weather must be about to stop Posted Image

 

Will be thinking of everyone as the next lot hits us tonight and hope jo public is sensible about watching the seas from a safe distance.

xxx

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chrisyp Newbie

chrisyp

Posted
  • Location: pevensey east sussex
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: pevensey east sussex
Posted

seeing as we are looking at tides this has just been updated for sov harbour residents (bearing in-mind there is already a flood alert for the Pevensey area ) http://www.shra.co.uk/news.html

 

As noon high water tomorrow approaches, the forecast appears to moderating slightly.  What was looking to be a southerly wave direction is now predicted to be closer to southwest, with the peak wave height expected late afternoon rather than midday.  This all helps, but with high spring tides I would still expect there to be some overtopping.

Beach reinstatement has been going well in the most at risk areas, with calmer conditions this morning and again tonight helping considerably.  Recycling will continue tonight and machines will again be out from 04:30 tomorrow ahead of the storm.

Although tomorrow may be  improved compared to earlier forecasts, there is no respite over the weekend and into Monday.  It may well be that the highest water level will be in the early hours of Sunday, but with reduced wave activity by then it should be no worse than what we will see tomorrow.  All machines currently working will continue to operate each low tide through the weekend.  By Monday tide levels will be falling, so we hope to revert to more usual work patterns by Tuesday

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted (edited)

As noon high water tomorrow approaches, the forecast appears to moderating slightly. 

 

That sounds a little more encouraging Chris, although I'm still sure the timing is earlier around midday - but these guys are the professionals.

 

Latest track on when things start to get into our waters:

 

Posted Image

Edited by Coast
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john pike Maestro

john pike

Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
Posted

Posted Image

hi coast

 

that direction of wind would help but not so for the south west

 

now at 00 sat

 

Posted Image

not a good direction for yourself and south coastal areas

 

only consolation is the wind looks a tad easier

 

the concern is the bit when the wind turns to a true south west instead

 

and that bit is between these 2 and could also be very strong

 

also note the warm front close to the south coast there

 

that will not help with projected rainfall

 

although still waiting the update on the 2nd fax for 00 saturday

 

although i am no expert of river levels to be honest

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Keraunic Seasoned

Keraunic

Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
Posted

The Orwell looked pretty high earlier. Will this latest Atlantic Visitor affect EA, Suffolk, Ipswich much?

This is getting a bit much really.

Take care peeps, if you're in the firing line. :O Judging by the maps, it looks very grim.

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john pike Maestro

john pike

Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
Posted (edited)

Posted Image

similar to earlier fax

 

however this has dropped the warm front close to the south

 

that will help reduce the amount of rainfall Posted Image

Edited by john pike
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Snow Queen one Rising Star

Snow Queen one

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone
  • Location: Maidstone
Posted

Water rising again in Tonbridge

Warren where in Tonbridge do you think it will become a problem My daughter lives just down the road from Cannons Wharf and her car park got flooded xmas eve.  She could not get to her flat

thanks

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Atlantis Explorer

Atlantis

Posted
  • Location: Uckfield, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, blue sky summers, misty,frosty autumns!
  • Location: Uckfield, East Sussex
Posted

Just like to say thank you to Coast and John for keeping us all well informed about current and projected conditions. It is so helpful to all in our region.

Looks like we may have an eventful couple of days watching the water levels.

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jamesbhx Explorer

jamesbhx

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, W. Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Fog, Drizzle, Rain, Wind and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Horsham, W. Sussex
Posted

Certainly the threat of coastal flooding should not be underestimated. The Environment Agency already have a lot of Flood Alerts out for the south and southeast coast which I'm sure will see a number of them upgraded to warning over the next 12-18hrs or so.

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warrenb Seasoned

warrenb

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
Posted

Warren where in Tonbridge do you think it will become a problem My daughter lives just down the road from Cannons Wharf and her car park got flooded xmas eve.  She could not get to her flat

thanks

I wouldn't like to say, as this is the run off from yesterdays rain. I live on a hill on the edge of town but so can't really tell. Just looking at posts from "This is Tonbridge" on Facebook.

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Jimmyh Rising Star

Jimmyh

Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
Posted

Wow JP I have never seen a chart which actually shows 4 active low pressure systems, if my view us correct.

You say fi is Wednesday. That is an awfully long way to go to stop the Atlantic train.

Have u ever witnessed such a disturbed spell of weather. Or has anyone else for that matter

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john pike Maestro

john pike

Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
Posted

hi jimmy

 

to be honest i have never wished for high pressure in winter before

 

this is relentless

 

however

 

ukmo chart for 144

Posted Image

 

that would be dry Posted Image

 

and tallies with ecm ensembles showing dryer conditions coming in

 

downside as you say

 

6 days more of this will not help anyone

 

and the weekend isnt looking too clever for us here either

 

more on that later

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Snowangel-MK Accomplished

Snowangel-MK

Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Author
Posted

The environment agency have issued their highest alert level for the southwest coast of England around the times of high tide tomorrow, with a severe risk to life and property.

There are also further flood alerts and warnings for pretty much every area of the UK, so please stay safe and remember - Think, Don't sink !

http://goo.gl/8bmAK

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Snowangel-MK Accomplished

Snowangel-MK

Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Author
Posted

post-10773-0-04267400-1388685005_thumb.j

Just seen this map on Paul Carter's Facebook page showing the area at risk of coastal flooding !

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john pike Maestro

john pike

Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
Posted

saturday night

 

could we see a rain to snow back to rain again

 

fax

 

Posted Image

 

more likely to the north of our region

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

to be honest the precipitation is a concern at present whatever comes down

 

the low is not on ukmo charts

 

note the 528 dam air from the north of london northwards

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