Jump to content

Scotland - Regional Discussion - 23/12/13 >>>


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 968
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Image

The ECM 12z ends with a meridonal pattern across the Atlantic. Mild SSW flow over the UK with WAA, could do with a more S'ly flow up to Svaalbard to help inflate a Scandi high and drag in the deep cold pool from Europe. As it stands, looks like heading for Greece or SE England.

There must be a pattern change coming since the model runs are inconsistent eg. Thursdays zonal ECM vrs yesterday's reverse zonal 12Z vrs todays meridonal pattern.

Edited by snow1975
  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM anomalies charts below the 0z 240hr on left and 12z 240hr on right.

 

still have the low heights over Europe the heights to our north a little different orientated and the heights on the USA east coast have moved closer to Greenland

 

post-18233-0-26350500-1388869124_thumb.gpost-18233-0-70410500-1388869172_thumb.g

 

its a hard one to read we can prob say we defo have the ridge moving towards Greenland but with the anomalies being a bit toned down over Europe there might be some discrepancies there but with the anomalies staying in relatively stable would say the overriding but maybe not by much would be away from the op.

Link to post
Share on other sites

heres one for you LS and i hope it makes sense.

 

we start with the MJO phasings and we see the GFS and UKMO below have changed there forecasts to stay relatively together again.

 

post-18233-0-72827500-1388870334_thumb.gpost-18233-0-17576700-1388870376_thumb.gpost-18233-0-02840800-1388870387_thumb.g

 

but yet again the ECM is going down a different path on is own and personally i think it could be wrong.

 

post-18233-0-15872100-1388870399_thumb.gpost-18233-0-51923900-1388870399_thumb.g

 

hopefully the ECM is wrong because if we are looking good to go into a phase 8 from the charts we are seeing it ties in pretty well with the model output although our heights are a bit further to the north than on the composite shown below for phase 8.

 

post-18233-0-34898400-1388870415_thumb.g

 

now if we assume that the GFS and UKMO are right with phase 7 next and with the ECM throwing in the ridge headed for Greenland i think it may be wrong and fighting against its MJO forecast then if we move on to phase 7 and take into account phase 8 was already a bit further north with the heights so we could maybe be looking at phase 7 moving further north.

 

then does that not look bang on with the Greenland ridge and heights joining with the Scandinavian ridge already there

 

post-18233-0-78670500-1388870414_thumb.g

 

so maybe ECM might be wrong and having a little hissy fit and i hope so because that phase 7 MJO composite look well good.

Edited by Buriedundersnow
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

heres one for you LS and i hope it makes sense.

 

we start with the MJO phasings and we see the GFS and UKMO below have changed there forecasts to say relatively together the same again.

 

Posted ImageGFSO_phase_small.gifPosted ImageNCPE_phase_21m_small.gifPosted ImageUKME_phase_23m_small.gif

 

but yet again the ECM is going down a different path on is own and personally i think it could be wrong.

 

Posted ImageECMF_phase_51m_small.gifPosted ImageECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

 

hopefully the ECM is wrong because if we are looking good to go into a phase 8 from the charts we are seeing it ties in pretty well with the model output although our heights are a bit further to the north than on the composite shown below for phase 8.

 

Posted ImageJanuaryPhase8500mb.gif

 

now if we assume that the GFS and UKMO are right with phase 7 next and with the ECM throwing in the ridge headed for Greenland i think it may be wrong and fighting against its MJO forecast then if we move on to phase 7 and take into account phase 8 was already a bit further north with the heights so we could maybe be looking at phase 7 moving further north.

 

then does that not look bang on with the Greenland ridge and heights joining with the Scandinavian ridge already there

 

Posted ImageJanuaryPhase7500mb.gif

 

so maybe ECM might be wrong and having a little hissy fit and i hope so because that phase 7 MJO composite look well good.

 

Cheers for those, they hadn't updated since the 1st so we were waiting with baited breath for them. Looks like they've all largely stuck to their guns, with the ECM wanting to kill the convection in the Western Pacific but with the UKMO and GFS wanting to ramp it up. Unfortunately the ECM has the best skill in forecasting the MJO but all of these forecasts are a bit temperamental to say the least so it's rather up for grabs at the moment. A few of the models want to move the MJO backwards into phase 6 or even phase 4, which is quite amusing, and the BOM is displaying almost 0 skill whatsoever:

Posted Image

We might as well use TEITS' 'easterly seagull' method from a few years backPosted Image

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Cheers for those, they hadn't updated since the 1st so we were waiting with baited breath for them. Looks like they've all largely stuck to their guns, with the ECM wanting to kill the convection in the Western Pacific but with the UKMO and GFS wanting to ramp it up. Unfortunately the ECM has the best skill in forecasting the MJO but all of these forecasts are a bit temperamental to say the least so it's rather up for grabs at the moment. A few of the models want to move the MJO backwards into phase 6 or even phase 4, which is quite amusing, and the BOM is displaying almost 0 skill whatsoever:

Posted Image

We might as well use TEITS' 'easterly seagull' method from a few years backPosted Image

 

 

i had heard the ECM had the best verification stats somewhere but how big a lead is it and are the verification stats similar to like they do with the models like .873 and all that.

 

this is one of the times i hope the ECM is wrong and the GFS and UKMO have it spot on as some big heights to our northwest would be good.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

heres another one and you will prob think I'm mad now Posted Image

 

below is the ECM 12z 240hr chart i have dome a little paint and turned it round to line up with the MJO composite

 

if you look at the arrows and follow the evolution then the rest of the northern hemisphere could look like the MJO phase 7 and the only bit wrong would be us.

 

post-18233-0-79761000-1388873413_thumb.gpost-18233-0-13319000-1388873429_thumb.g

 

not to be taken seriously just something i noticed.

 

unless you go back to this post and we see that evolution with a trough dropping into Europe and its looks bang on for a phase 7.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78858-scotland-regional-discussion-231213/?p=2884933

 

maybe that's the pattern just cracked as it would work

Edited by Buriedundersnow
Link to post
Share on other sites

updated NCEP 500mb anomalies charts

 

6-10 day chart see's the atlantic being shut off

 

post-18233-0-65614100-1388875971_thumb.gpost-18233-0-43914000-1388875970_thumb.g

 

8-14 day chart shows the high on the USA eastern coast and Greenland highs moving closer together and winds for us switching round to an easterly direction

 

post-18233-0-22796000-1388875972_thumb.gpost-18233-0-37203500-1388875967_thumb.g

 

anomaly charts looking good even if the output isn't.

 

EDIT: small question on these charts that someone could maybe answer for me the two highs when the purple dashed lines join and go round both is that indicative of ridging?

Edited by Buriedundersnow
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there some kind of chemical reaction between high levels of salt water and algae (not used to water cover) which makes this video appear pink? There is a pink hue apparent, and not just near sunset, yeah?

Edited by BurntFishTrousers
Link to post
Share on other sites

*Alert* *Alert*

Yep, we actually have a frost here this morning, a fairly rare event thus winter so far. Current temp of -2.3/ll.lC (for those that missed the earlier discussion, the Lidl weather station doesn't show -ve dew points) and the overnight low was -2.9C. Along with that we have no wind and blue skies so a nice looking morning for a change. Won't last though will it?

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

1C, frosty, flat calm and a blue sky.  Posted Image Make the most of it!

 

HC get oot there with the camera :) You should consider sending some photos into Paul, link here, the site are looking for pics. Extends to everyone of course. Am sure there are some great images of Scotland we could share.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78976-your-weather-photos-featured-on-the-netweather-homepage/

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Afternoon all! Temp got down to 0.8 in the wee small hours, but no frost in the morning as it had clouded over. Temp now up to 6.3, cloudy with light rain so nae chance of a frost. Not sure how the next storm will pan out. Isn't looking too bad for this area, but that could easily change.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

HC get oot there with the camera Posted Image You should consider sending some photos into Paul, link here, the site are looking for pics. Extends to everyone of course. Am sure there are some great images of Scotland we could share.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78976-your-weather-photos-featured-on-the-netweather-homepage/

Lol, too bloody late, the cloud was sweeping in as I was typing earlier!  I've barely had the camera out for a while now cos the sky's just been this familiar grey pish.  My other handicap is that I changed work a bit over a year ago and no longer get to see so many wonderful different places on call of duty.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Wooooo! That Atlantic Washing Machine just doesn't get to the "gentle and delicates" setting, does it?Still, I'm happy - cold weather at long last for my birthday pressie :) It eas looking awfy like I'd not be wearing any woolly jumpers at all today! :o

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey guys,   -4 here last night and that was a reading from two stations. (cheapish ones lol).  Everything is frozen solid, skies were stunning during the night absolutely gin clear. we have had loads of flooding with we bothies and salmon houses that have stood for years now 1/3 submerged in water.   The firth birst its banks up over fields then along the roads and right to the doorstep of a local shop which was around 300 meters away from where the tide usually stop's.

 

Wind has recently changed direction and cloud's are rolling in,  still at -1.3 though..  It's like im waiting for a dove to bring me a twig back so i can release the animal's.............two by two,  

Have had a few day's away ( wife's no well )  but i have been watching the report's on down south and my heart really does go out.. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Certainly a colder day. Min here was just above freezing. Currently 4.7c with the wind starting to pick up. Just 2c at Leuchars at 1pm.

 

Now overcast after a sunny start.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...