scotland Scotland - Regional Discussion - 23/12/13 >>>

[Hairy Celt]

Evening all, have just floated up the M74. Shocking day on the road, all 500 miles of it, but hame now and no going oot again.

Recorded 12c at the border around 8pm and think the car has wet rot now as well.

 

Outlaws made it doon A9 earlier, with a few hours stop at Drumochter for the plough to clear the road, so took in all 7 hours.

 

Wet rot in the car, lol... However, top of the EPL at Xmas is ****ing best for a long time!

From the severe thread, mesosphere spotted this wayward flight from Stockholm.

 

Pilots not fancying landing this evening...

 

Stockholm.PNG

Santa in disguise?

[sn0wman]

18Z NAE run has the low at 924mb! :bomb: I imagine the Met Office will put more of Scotland under an amber weather warning tomorrow morning.

[November13]

It looks evil on the satellite.

[lupe]

Hey people,

 

Im in north west highlands,  956mb at mo and just waiting for it to fall....this is getting weird now, calm outside and i can feel something is coming yet alone know.  caught the last few gemanoids (sp?) tonight through a gap in the forest. they are so beautiful!

 

Anyway, i very kindly had an invite here and just wanted to say its a pleasure to be here...now back to storm watching...does anyone think the depression that follows tomorrows is worse for us up here?? the eye lands right on us? 

 

Tris

[November13]

Temps seem to be dropping off in N Eire now so that's the cooler air tracking north east.

[milkmaid]

we are at 9  /10 now ,gusting to over 50 now ,20 miles over that i'm fine with lol

pressure is at 953.5 

   

Edited December 23, 2013 by milkmaid

[NUT]

Hurricane Bawbag early last year was the only storm I know that has only blown off some of our rooftiles. I wonder what tomorrow may bring...............

[Hairy Celt]

Hey people,

 

Im in north west highlands,  956mb at mo and just waiting for it to fall....this is getting weird now, calm outside and i can feel something is coming yet alone know.  caught the last few gemanoids (sp?) tonight through a gap in the forest. they are so beautiful!

 

Anyway, i very kindly had an invite here and just wanted to say its a pleasure to be here...now back to storm watching...does anyone think the depression that follows tomorrows is worse for us up here?? the eye lands right on us? 

 

Tris

The eye of the storm is an uncanny place to be sometimes, it can be flat calm but you know there's more to come and there's no way out. We had a big storm a few years ago when the eye passed right over in the night - we'd lost trees and had other daamage, and were tidying up rather half-heartedly cos we knew the worst was to come!

[Buriedundersnow]

GFS 18z really trying to squeeze the vortex

 

[lorenzo]

Hey people,

 

Im in north west highlands,  956mb at mo and just waiting for it to fall....this is getting weird now, calm outside and i can feel something is coming yet alone know.  caught the last few gemanoids (sp?) tonight through a gap in the forest. they are so beautiful!

 

Anyway, i very kindly had an invite here and just wanted to say its a pleasure to be here...now back to storm watching...does anyone think the depression that follows tomorrows is worse for us up here?? the eye lands right on us? 

 

Tris

 

Welcome along lupe, helluva time to join - you've got some serious winter weather up and coming!

[lupe]

Thanks hairy celt, i thought hurricanes were calm in the eye and accelerated outwards and the atlantic storms we get accelerated from outer edge to the eye?? Im not sure anyway as im a new complete novice as you can guess.. i have a lot to learn!!

Im jealous of the way some of you guys talk but i'll get it in the end at some point   Im getting 953mb on the pressure,  3 degree's ambient and -3 windchill temps. 

 

she is not happy the ferrets have come in  but i cant leave me wee babes oot in a whoolie

[Buriedundersnow]

Hey people,

 

Im in north west highlands,  956mb at mo and just waiting for it to fall....this is getting weird now, calm outside and i can feel something is coming yet alone know.  caught the last few gemanoids (sp?) tonight through a gap in the forest. they are so beautiful!

 

Anyway, i very kindly had an invite here and just wanted to say its a pleasure to be here...now back to storm watching...does anyone think the depression that follows tomorrows is worse for us up here?? the eye lands right on us? 

 

Tris

 

welcome to the Scottish thread LUPE

[lorenzo]

Good spot by Liam, Friday's ensembles from tonight..

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=96

 

 

[Buriedundersnow]

Thanks hairy celt, i thought hurricanes were calm in the eye and accelerated outwards and the atlantic storms we get accelerated from outer edge to the eye?? Im not sure anyway as im a new complete novice as you can guess.. i have a lot to learn!!

Im jealous of the way some of you guys talk but i'll get it in the end at some point   Im getting 953mb on the pressure,  3 degree's ambient and -3 windchill temps. 

 

she is not happy the ferrets have come in  but i cant leave me wee babes oot in a whoolie

 

if you get stuck with anything just ask away and someone who knows will tell you.

[Cheggers]

Hurricane Bawbag early last year was the only storm I know that has only blown off some of our rooftiles. I wonder what tomorrow may bring...............

2nd Jan was far more damaging I think, (IMBY all but 3 houses had roof damage, and a few cars met said roof damage, and I believe BMW had mentioned a lead lined skylight removed.....) either way not liking the look of tomorrow.

[Buriedundersnow]

Good spot by Liam, Friday's ensembles from tonight..

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=96

 

 

 

 

some proper stonkers in there

[Zenarcher]

Just gusting to about 30mph here at the moment nothing much. Tomorrow morning and afternoon it will be interesting.

 

K5 Buoy at 941mb and it will probably drop another 8 or 10mb over the next few hours.

 

Just looked at the 18z ens for Friday I think my neighbours shed just collapsed looking at them.

Edited December 23, 2013 by weathermaster

[lorenzo]

Some outrageous charts in that run for Friday night..

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-7-1-102.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-15-1-102.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-13-1-102.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-17-1-102.png

[Hairy Celt]

Some outrageous charts in that run for Friday night..

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-7-1-102.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-15-1-102.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-13-1-102.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-17-1-102.png

Are they trying to wind us up?

[Swave Snow]

its crazy mild at 7c in aviemore, where is the snaw??

[Buriedundersnow]

looks like the rain is coming on radar and maybe get a few squall lines in there

 

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/

[Allyw12]

Here we go, the wind starting to pick up here, stay safe everyone

[Buriedundersnow]

closest weather station to me I can find in stirling says its 957.3mb

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hey everyone, I've returned from sunny (well reasonably so for December) Prague and the flight wasn't actually too bad, if a little windy on the descent into Edinburgh. I see there was a slight tiff on the other thread regarding the ongoing 'southern bias' argument, which can be quite good fun if kept light hearted but we do need to remember that we're a' jock tamson's bairns and these storms do have a particularly strong impact on areas which don't experience them as often, and also many of us have relatives in or indeed hail from Fluffybottomshire (as it's endearingly known) who are perhaps suffering storm damage. I certainly wouldn't want English born members like BMW and even our frequent Sassenach visitors who like to get away from the rough and tumble of the MT to be put off visiting our lovely thread so we should all remember to keep the banter as respectful as possible.

Anyway, down to the weather and I'm going to discuss the two main aspects of this system separately - the wind and the precipitation (with an obvious emphasis on the snaw).

First off, the wind:

the EURO4 has sustained winds over 50 knots for the Western Isles by 6am, with more modest but still substantial speeds of around 15-20knots for most and 30-40 knots at the coast:

ramping up to what will likely be the peak of the winds for most by mid afternoon, with sustained winds of 30 knots and hurricane force gusts widely, with 40-50 knots again sustained winds near the coast, with the potential for a worsening by maybe 10-15 or so knots across the board depending on how sting jets are picked up on at the last minute:

However, for the Uists in particular the worst may still be to come, with late evening holding potential for sustained Hurricane force winds:

Similar story from the NMM, although what's more notable is the longevity of the high wind setup, with 40+mph gusts from morning to evening for a large swathe of the country, concentrated around the East Neuk, the Firth of Clyde, Inner Hebrides, the Galloway Coast and, moreso by night again, from North Uist to Barra.

This is the sustained wind map, as I reckon Tony (Lorenzo)'s already posted most of the gust maps up and I've described them too in great detail. This is around the peak of it for most and shows the potential for near hurricane force sustained winds around coasts exposed to southwesterlies:

Onto precipitation - the latest Euro4 (the above is based on the 12Zs as only accumulations are out yet) give some impressive totals on the Cairngorms in particularly, with a maximum around 55mm up to midnight tomorrow, more like 20-30mm across the NW highlands and generally 10-15mm elsewhere:

So what will it fall as?

Currently, pretty much everything is falling as rain:

However, by morning the lower thicknesses will have pushed in and, although patchy, the morning will give perhaps our best opportunity for more widespread falling snow:

Temperatures across the north of the country are worryingly chilly given the wind speeds, so  blizzards for the high ground and inland northwest of the boundary fault looks a near certainty, but with temperatures more like 2-3C for the central belt it will be more likely a wintry mix which turns snowy with much forcing from intensity and moreso where sheltered from the high wind speeds:

On the NAE, 950hpas aren't brilliant but we're in a funny old paradigm where 950hpa represents temperatures pretty close to the surface:

In fact, at this point most of Scotland has sea level pressure below 950hpa anyway, which makes a theoretical 950hpa temperature of 3C with 930hpa pressure seem rather 'good' for snow:

A better measure for those marginal areas is the Wet Bulb Freezing levels, which, according to the GFS at least (since we don't have free access to that metric on either the NAE or EURO4 models) are likely to be sub 0C for most east of Glasgow and away from the unremitting coastal mixing up in Aberdeen City and shire, where it will feel bitter but likely won't see much in the way of snow away from Deeside:

However, precipitation is likely to be a bit sparse and more in the form of showers in the morning, which makes the best chance for widespread snow the front edge of the occlusion which is likely to hit around lunchtime:

Behind that, warmer uppers push in and turn snow to rain up to relatively high levels:

although still with low enough WBFLs to keep a fair number of us interested through the rest of the day:

By evening we again have a shot at some snow, with sub 528 thicknesses pushing in along with generally slacker air

However, a feature at the surface level through into Christmas will be the slightly 'warmer' air extending up to 900hpa, so any low ground snow will struggle (although I certainly wouldn't rule out a wintry mix given such low heights for the big day). Once again, intensity will be key below 200m and with some of that we can drag down the freezing levels and turn the rain to snow:

 

Just a word on the severity of the storm - the NAE drags the core pressure down to 924hpa, which is exceptionally low. particularly given how close its centre is to us (the Butt of Lewis could well see pressure readings below 930hpa:

It's unlikely to beat the record low of 925hpa from Ochtertyre, Crieff from 1884 ( http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/48934-the-lowest-pressure-reading-recorded-in-the-uk/ ) but it will come closer than any storm since Braer.

[DR(S)NO]

Hi Guys, am sure this has been asked already.......is there a reason why the past few weeks have been so active ? It seems a long time since the weather has been on such a spiral of violent depressions...presumably there is a readon for this particular spell?it alao feels that we are in constant daytime darkness...doom and gloom all round....but certainly an extremely exciting time for weather watching.

Id had a gut feeling that we were entering a stormy festive time and posted such in the MOD on 7/12 when replying to posts by Purga.

Very aggressive temperature change this afternoon around here...4.4c at 4.40 pm to 9.3c by 5.25pm.

Very worrying signs for tomorrow and again on friday.....hope everyone stays safe .