The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/12/2013----->

[PolarWarsaw]

Anybody got any good links to coverage of the weather channel or anything US side?

[Polar Maritime]

Very positive signs tonight for us cold/extreme cold lovers 

[Bishop Brennan]

Big squall alert...

 

Yep, another very intense shower right now. Must be our first one since, ohhhh........the last one at least thirty minutes ago 

 

PS great post Gord. I'll freely admit to being massively envious of the Americans - just imagine what it must be like in the hours directly before a major snowstorm hits, watching on the radar as a gargantuan wall of snow gradually bears down on your location. The anticipation alone must be amazing.

 

Bish

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Very positive signs tonight for us cold/extreme cold lovers 

 

cannot see them, 06Z looked good in FI, but 12Z nothing real cold on there yet, but great news is for my area anyway, that the GFS is looking drier next week

[cheshire snow]

cannot see them, 06Z looked good in FI, but 12Z nothing real cold on there yet, but great news is for my area anyway, that the GFS is looking drier next week

 

 Think you should change your name to I Love The GFS LOL

 

 c.s

[conor123]

Showers rolling in one after another but temperature refusing to drop below 6c, business as usual in the world of the models now the ECM/UKMO have started picking up hints of an Arctic/Scandi high the GFS drops it :lol: 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Showers rolling in one after another but temperature refusing to drop below 6c, business as usual in the world of the models now the ECM/UKMO have started picking up hints of an Arctic/Scandi high the GFS drops it

 

GFS was more realistic on the 06Z than ECM! ECM bringing it in too soon, expect the ECM 00Z to look like GFS 12Z in the morning,

 

but a week from now, I will be hoping GFS shows cold more blocked setups often in FI, 2 weeks for ECM, as it only goes to 240

[Gord]

Well last year's transition was slow but got there in the end. Stormy to mild and dry before the cold arrived. Took around 2-3 weeks for the whole cycle to play out. We were already in the mild and dry phase by this point last year. It was quite pleasant at times if I remember correctly. We were still a few days away from knowing what was around the corner too, although I'm sure some of the siginals were showing in the models by now.

 

Of course in reality, no 2 years are alike. This year's stormy period has been far more intense and prolonged than last years. By this point last year, we had already had some cold at the start of December too (although a snowless one). The models had teased us with undelivered cold much more cruelly last year as well.

 

Baby steps from here...hopefully we'll get there but as with many winters of the past, it all seems so hard to reach at the moment. But we've got there before from next to nothing...

Edited January 4, 2014 by Gord

[conor123]

Even places right on the coast in the North East US down as low as -20c this morning ! 

Atlantic City for example which is on the same latitude as Majorca, surrently -19c!!!!!

 

Meanwhile a more familiar picture in Telford today after the storms of late business as usual has returned, aka slate grey skies nothingness.

Edited January 4, 2014 by conor123

[Polar Maritime]

Very dark here today, Temp 3.8c,  N/N/W 7mph, Dp 3.2c. Rain 1mm.

Edited January 4, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Gord]

Nah, wouldn't worry. If the worst happens and we end up with a snowless winter...they'll be other winters. It will snow again at some point! Sadly, in our lifetimes, there will be other snowless winters to add the list of shame (which isn't really that big when you look at it). But there won't be many...we will have to bite the bullet one year. It can happen in parts of the USA. Here's a link for data showing where I used to live in the USA (Columbus). I was there 2004-2006. You can see they've had some horror shows. Look at winter 97/98 there. OK, there is a little bit of snow but that winter was appalling by their standards. Jan and Feb 2006 were poor too (sadly when I was there). Thankfully Dec 2005 saved that one.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/lcdpage.htm

 

Interestingly, looks like most of the snow came early in the winter last year for Columbus as well (around New Year). Was still the odd day in the second half on winter but there were much milder days too. Although they did have a cold March.

 

Likelihood of a snowless winter here at this stage is still low though. I think we'll start to see things come together by the end of the month.

 

Edit: Just re-looking at that data. 96/97 were almost as bad as 97/98 for Columbus...so two in a row there.

Edited January 4, 2014 by Gord

[Staffordshire]

To be honest I wouldn't mind having a snowless winter because of how good summer was

[I remember Atlantic 252]

To be honest I wouldn't mind having a snowless winter because of how good summer was

 

eh? summer's long gone, no consolation at all, even if I liked hot weather, hope we don't get a snowless winter, even if we do, there is no guarantee summer '14 will be good

[Summer of 95]

Last summer was average- 2 nice weeks in July, a couple of hot days at the start of August and nothing much else. It certainly wouldn't make up for a snowless disaster winter. Would need a 95/76/59 tor that.

 

Horrid day today, has barely got light and drizzling on and off. Yet again didn't go below 4C even though it was clear last night.

[cyclonic happiness]

eh? summer's long gone, no consolation at all, even if I liked hot weather, hope we don't get a snowless winter, even if we do, there is no guarantee summer '14 will be good

Well, we have to pay the piper and this looks like it's it.

 

Hopefully it will reset the balance and we be able to get some nice snowy weather before long. This has got to be one of the worst periods of weather I can recall :-(

[Dancerwithwings]

That damp cold that gets into your bones type weather today,  People who suffer from arthritis or joint pain won't be having a good day today im sure.

[conor123]

Yup hasn't got light at all today, thank goodness after tomorrow a generally sunny week ahead providing the Welsh mountains kill the showers off.

12z about to roll out, here's hoping for a miracle?

[Gord]

A little bit of sun right at the end of the day poking through the clouds from the west...just in time for sunset.

 

Been a glum day...a lot of boring (but hopefully drier) weather to get through over the next week or two. As mentioned above though...hopefully some sunshine. It can feel quite pleasant out at this time of year in these conditions...but deep in our hearts that's not what we want is it?

[Dancerwithwings]

12z about to roll out, here's hoping for a miracle?

 

 

.but deep in our hearts that's not what we want is it?

 Regarding a miracle and what we want

 

= Hopefully

[conor123]

Bleurgh no such luck, another garbage run, typical charts now veering towards jet heading further and further north pulling up Azores/Euro high's, just watch that be the next pattern we get for 4 weeks 

 

Edited January 4, 2014 by conor123

[BlueHedgehog074]

Bleurgh no such luck, another garbage run, typical charts now veering towards jet heading further and further north pulling up Azores/Euro high's, just watch that be the next pattern we get for 4 weeks

computer-out-window.jpg

(lol) great image. Except for that attempt in FI where High Pressure tries to ridge further North, I must admit there's no real 'blizzard' of potential on that GFS 12Z run for wintry weather for the snow fans.

Edit: I wonder what tonight's devious ECMWF model will decide to do?

Edited January 4, 2014 by DiagonalRedLine

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Bleurgh no such luck, another garbage run, typical charts now veering towards jet heading further and further north pulling up Azores/Euro high's, just watch that be the next pattern we get for 4 weeks 

 

computer-out-window.jpg

 

Not a bad run, looks a lot drier, could be cold at times with a high close, Even deep FI settled

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Models flirting with an area of heavy rain on tuesday, now I am hoping it dosent make it as far NW as here, shown on GFS and fax charts, one to watch, often moves further north and west than forecast

 

deserve this to miss to the SE

Edited January 4, 2014 by IrememberAtlantic252

[Gord]

A few tiny showers crossing Wales right now. Nothing to get excited about I'm sure. Good to see another frost tonight anyway.

[Polar Maritime]

A slight covering of snow here this morning, very icy with a low of -0.6c. Current temp 0.3c, Dp 0.4c, Wind Chill -1.2c. S/W 4mph

 

Edited January 5, 2014 by Polar Maritime