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Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period


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People are going to have to give this storm some respect, it does look a strong storm for sure and I would advise folk who may not be "in the know" to avoid taking unnecessary trips, which I suppose goes without saying. The problems are likely to be downed power lines, tree limbs, tiles and slates flying off buildings etc, so clearly better to be "in the know" about this than not. The SW starts feeling its wrath early into overnight period as Iceberg and others have suggested. Southern coastal and eventually Southeastern UK look prone to the stronger gusts as Monday strolls along into early Tuesday morning. The North looks like copping the worst of the storm on Tuesday.

 

Take Care all.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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A passing front with 70mph causes a few issues, but not as many as I would imagine 70mph over a duration of a day or so would cause. Even XCWeather and GFS are struggling on the values with some 18hrs to go.

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Getting rather worried atm do you think it will downgrade

 

Well, By 6pm tonight we should see it clearly formed out in the west.

The next few hours are critical to where, how hard and how wet it hits.

 

 

post-182-0-53028800-1387705647_thumb.png

 

 

Looks like it will track fairly far north, so the strongest of winds will be in Ireland, western england and esp up north , scotland etc.

I personally would not like to be on any western ( Esp north western edges of the UK. ) 

 

Initially we can see the problems highlighted here:

Highlighting the West & South as potential issue hotspots.

Posted Image

 

 

We then see the wind problems transferring east and affecting the eastern coasts

 Posted Image

 

Finally really causing issues in the far north.

Posted Image

 

 

 

Rain to me looking like a possible problem for Wales / Western england with already soaked ground and very high river levels ( Severn is almost breaking banks at the moment.. heavy rain in wales could see problems for this river. )

Same goes for Devon, Cornwall etc.

12hr rainfall:

Posted Image

 

 

This could also fall as snow to higher levels later on in the game ( Xmas eve , Xmas day ) and possibly to lower levels in heavy bursts.

But this will likely to be mostly a "upper hills" issue.

Posted Image

 

 

All in all, At the moment. 

Major to Severe wind damage possible. Fair amounts of rain with some possible thunder thrown in for good measure, turning increasingly to snow on higher ground 1000ft+

 

Warning areas id suggest were:

All western and south coasts ( especially - west/south wales, west scotland , west/south ireland )

 

With the dangers transferring to the north and northeastern areas.

 

Risks of flooding for the southwest and west of the country and possible issues with snow / blizzards on very high ground.

 

 

Just My 2cents.

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Another thing that might make this storm more dangerous is the fact that there will be a lot of rain falling onto already saturated ground, which will exacerbate the damage caused, trees with shallow roots being more easily uprooted, ect.

 

20-50mm quite widely.

 

Posted Image

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I hope that those who are forecast to be in the path of the worst of the winds stay safe.

Taking the met office forecast as gospel for the next 2 days we have a Max gust here of 48mph forecast. For here at least it looks like we are going to escape the worst of it. I jut hope that for the sake of others there is a last minute downgrade.

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Am I correct in assuming the very worst conditions further south - occur in the overnight period Mon into Tues am? Until for eg, lunchtime Tues.

Going by Met O computer generated which I guess is as good as any computer generated forecast they are forecasting for us in the South East at least for the gusts to get up from early afternoon till about 3am. So hopefully by Christmas Eve morning the worst should have passed us and then the focus is on the far North West.
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Does anyone know when Saint Nicholas will be at its strongest tomorrow night? I have to pick up my brother from an xmas party. 

Edited by PerfectStorm
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Sadly, things don't seem to be getting any better as each model run comes out. All we can hope for is that the storm is not quite as intense when it arrives.

As weather enthusiasts, we need to keep people who may not usually take much note of forecasts informed as to the potential strength and longevity of this system. I am just praying that this Christmas does not become one of tragedy for some families, so the more knowledge that is out there, the better.

So spread the word, stay safe and hopefully we can all enjoy the quieter weather forecast for Christmas Day!

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Ok many thanks SJ, seems to tally up with my earlier thoughts too - for some, a window of opportunity exists if heading out, travelling etc, probably later the better Tues further south meanwhile the reverse for those in the north, when am will be best and before strongest winds transfer north and east.Worrying times, plenty to keep tabs on to say the least! Those doing the forecasting etc., will definitely be burning the midnight oil over the next few days..

 

Hi triple X, broadly speaking from what I have gathered from reading the analysis on here, the North will be calmer than the South on Monday and the reverse is to be said of Tuesday.

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Sadly, things don't seem to be getting any better as each model run comes out. All we can hope for is that the storm is not quite as intense when it arrives.As weather enthusiasts, we need to keep people who may not usually take much note of forecasts informed as to the potential strength and longevity of this system. I am just praying that this Christmas does not become one of tragedy for some families, so the more knowledge that is out there, the better.So spread the word, stay safe and hopefully we can all enjoy the quieter weather forecast for Christmas Day!

 

Hear hear. My thoughts precisely. A little humour before the main event is fine but we must hope folk take heed and stay safe during the main event.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Really hope everyone stays safe and not go on any unecessary journeys..but saying that every journey might seem like that at this time of year to bring family and freinds together but is it worth risking your life for???

Edited by itsnowjoke
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Maybe I missed something but for the south looks like an East Kent problem for wind. With mean wind of 30-35 and gusts up to around 55 elsewhere in the south this shouldn't pose too many problems.

 

Rain looks a bigger issue though

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MetO still going for 60mph+ gusts in and around London and the Home counties so probably 80mph on exposed channel coastal areas, with that central pressure reading I can quite easily see somewhere up north getting 90-100mph or possibly more!  Posted Image

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I know all these upgrades when i personally wish this storm would jog on.The other way if possible

Makes me laugh you lot do, when we have storms we always hear people moaning it's downgraded, just enjoy it whilst it lasts will you.

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