Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period


Coast

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

People are going to have to give this storm some respect, it does look a strong storm for sure and I would advise folk who may not be "in the know" to avoid taking unnecessary trips, which I suppose goes without saying. The problems are likely to be downed power lines, tree limbs, tiles and slates flying off buildings etc, so clearly better to be "in the know" about this than not. The SW starts feeling its wrath early into overnight period as Iceberg and others have suggested. Southern coastal and eventually Southeastern UK look prone to the stronger gusts as Monday strolls along into early Tuesday morning. The North looks like copping the worst of the storm on Tuesday.

 

Take Care all.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bathgate, West Lothian 140m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal weather!
  • Location: Bathgate, West Lothian 140m asl

Gfs 06z has the centre of the low further south than the 00z. Wonder what the 12z will show.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

A passing front with 70mph causes a few issues, but not as many as I would imagine 70mph over a duration of a day or so would cause. Even XCWeather and GFS are struggling on the values with some 18hrs to go.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Getting rather worried atm do you think it will downgrade

 

Well, By 6pm tonight we should see it clearly formed out in the west.

The next few hours are critical to where, how hard and how wet it hits.

 

 

post-182-0-53028800-1387705647_thumb.png

 

 

Looks like it will track fairly far north, so the strongest of winds will be in Ireland, western england and esp up north , scotland etc.

I personally would not like to be on any western ( Esp north western edges of the UK. ) 

 

Initially we can see the problems highlighted here:

Highlighting the West & South as potential issue hotspots.

Posted Image

 

 

We then see the wind problems transferring east and affecting the eastern coasts

 Posted Image

 

Finally really causing issues in the far north.

Posted Image

 

 

 

Rain to me looking like a possible problem for Wales / Western england with already soaked ground and very high river levels ( Severn is almost breaking banks at the moment.. heavy rain in wales could see problems for this river. )

Same goes for Devon, Cornwall etc.

12hr rainfall:

Posted Image

 

 

This could also fall as snow to higher levels later on in the game ( Xmas eve , Xmas day ) and possibly to lower levels in heavy bursts.

But this will likely to be mostly a "upper hills" issue.

Posted Image

 

 

All in all, At the moment. 

Major to Severe wind damage possible. Fair amounts of rain with some possible thunder thrown in for good measure, turning increasingly to snow on higher ground 1000ft+

 

Warning areas id suggest were:

All western and south coasts ( especially - west/south wales, west scotland , west/south ireland )

 

With the dangers transferring to the north and northeastern areas.

 

Risks of flooding for the southwest and west of the country and possible issues with snow / blizzards on very high ground.

 

 

Just My 2cents.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

Does anybody know what strenghth of winds for my area Christmas day ??

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Breaking news...

http://news.sky.com/ - storm now gone top story on sky

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another thing that might make this storm more dangerous is the fact that there will be a lot of rain falling onto already saturated ground, which will exacerbate the damage caused, trees with shallow roots being more easily uprooted, ect.

 

20-50mm quite widely.

 

Posted Image

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Network Rail is warning of disruption to the Christmas getaway as strong winds and heavy rain are expected across Britain tomorrow.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2869004

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Preston - Lancashire
  • Location: Preston - Lancashire

I hope that those who are forecast to be in the path of the worst of the winds stay safe.

Taking the met office forecast as gospel for the next 2 days we have a Max gust here of 48mph forecast. For here at least it looks like we are going to escape the worst of it. I jut hope that for the sake of others there is a last minute downgrade.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

I think the storm should be called Saint Nicholas :)

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East County Clare
  • Location: East County Clare

Am I correct in assuming the very worst conditions further south - occur in the overnight period Mon into Tues am? Until for eg, lunchtime Tues.

Going by Met O computer generated which I guess is as good as any computer generated forecast they are forecasting for us in the South East at least for the gusts to get up from early afternoon till about 3am. So hopefully by Christmas Eve morning the worst should have passed us and then the focus is on the far North West.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Does anybody know what strenghth of winds for my area Christmas day ??

 

A relatively calm day is expected right now and the same is true of Boxing Day, but even then things could change. Posted Image

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

I think the storm should be called Saint Nicholas Posted Image

 

Or even Saint Knicker-less come Christmas Eve if any of our ladies leave their underwear on the washing line. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Does anyone know when Saint Nicholas will be at its strongest tomorrow night? I have to pick up my brother from an xmas party. 

Edited by PerfectStorm
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

Sadly, things don't seem to be getting any better as each model run comes out. All we can hope for is that the storm is not quite as intense when it arrives.

As weather enthusiasts, we need to keep people who may not usually take much note of forecasts informed as to the potential strength and longevity of this system. I am just praying that this Christmas does not become one of tragedy for some families, so the more knowledge that is out there, the better.

So spread the word, stay safe and hopefully we can all enjoy the quieter weather forecast for Christmas Day!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Ok many thanks SJ, seems to tally up with my earlier thoughts too - for some, a window of opportunity exists if heading out, travelling etc, probably later the better Tues further south meanwhile the reverse for those in the north, when am will be best and before strongest winds transfer north and east.Worrying times, plenty to keep tabs on to say the least! Those doing the forecasting etc., will definitely be burning the midnight oil over the next few days..

 

Hi triple X, broadly speaking from what I have gathered from reading the analysis on here, the North will be calmer than the South on Monday and the reverse is to be said of Tuesday.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Sadly, things don't seem to be getting any better as each model run comes out. All we can hope for is that the storm is not quite as intense when it arrives.As weather enthusiasts, we need to keep people who may not usually take much note of forecasts informed as to the potential strength and longevity of this system. I am just praying that this Christmas does not become one of tragedy for some families, so the more knowledge that is out there, the better.So spread the word, stay safe and hopefully we can all enjoy the quieter weather forecast for Christmas Day!

 

Hear hear. My thoughts precisely. A little humour before the main event is fine but we must hope folk take heed and stay safe during the main event.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Round 2 looks definitely on the cards. Looking like a massive bombing low has got our names on it for 27-28th too. Scary stuff, could even be some record breaking events with these storms.

Hope everyone stays safe and hopefully get served hot turkeys!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

Really hope everyone stays safe and not go on any unecessary journeys..but saying that every journey might seem like that at this time of year to bring family and freinds together but is it worth risking your life for???

Edited by itsnowjoke
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Ditto:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

 

Coast, do you have the link for the WV imagery, not got that one bookmarked yet. Many Thanks

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants

Maybe I missed something but for the south looks like an East Kent problem for wind. With mean wind of 30-35 and gusts up to around 55 elsewhere in the south this shouldn't pose too many problems.

 

Rain looks a bigger issue though

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

MetO still going for 60mph+ gusts in and around London and the Home counties so probably 80mph on exposed channel coastal areas, with that central pressure reading I can quite easily see somewhere up north getting 90-100mph or possibly more!  Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aldermaston, Nr Newbury/Reading
  • Location: Aldermaston, Nr Newbury/Reading

I know all these upgrades when i personally wish this storm would jog on.The other way if possible

Makes me laugh you lot do, when we have storms we always hear people moaning it's downgraded, just enjoy it whilst it lasts will you.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...