Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 952
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Got a question for peeps... no doubt tomorrow there will be power cuts.. And I hope to God if there is they are fixed before Christmas dinner cooking time.. But all the houses down my lane are above ground power, mine is under ground.. Does that mean of the pylon goes down will it cut my power too?

All depends on how your feed is fed. It's quite possible for a power cut to only affect you and next door is fine - depends on how many phases are knocked out. Keep an eye on http://www.ukpowernetworks.co.uk/internet/en/power-cuts/

my only  problem  people might be  out   and they could easily get  hit by flying things  i.e.  monday/tuesday  a  lot of people  will be  out celebrating   end of  work 

We were all planning on after work drinks from lunch time on Christmas Eve... last year we cancelled it because of the snow, this year because of the wind?

Link to post
Share on other sites

All depends on how your feed is fed. It's quite possible for a power cut to only affect you and next door is fine - depends on how many phases are knocked out. Keep an eye on http://www.ukpowernetworks.co.uk/internet/en/power-cuts/

We were all planning on after work drinks from lunch time on Christmas Eve... last year we cancelled it because of the snow, this year because of the wind?

Hope its not down to the sprouts!

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Very messy out there today:

 

post-6667-0-79096600-1387704059_thumb.pn

 

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 22 Dec 2013 06:00 to Mon 23 Dec 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 22 Dec 2013 07:04
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 1 was issued for convectively organized severe wind gusts over the North Sea.
 
SYNOPSIS
 
A vast area of maritime arctic air with steep lapse rates has been generated by a large low pressure system near Iceland. Convective cloud tops can reach wel below -20°C temperatures and will electrify despite low moisture input (2.5-4 g/kg), which is already confirmed by ATDnet lightning detections around the UK and Ireland. Convective organization will be poor except for a shortwave trough currently (06Z) inactively over the UK, which may well shape itself as a convective comma cloud over the North Sea during morning and afternoon and reach Norway and Denmark before 18Z. GFS predicted CAPE there is weaker than around Scotland, but there should be solid deep convergence. Given the low/mid level winds over 30 m/s there exists a chance that a possible convective line may organize a more substantial wind gust threat than the background conditions itself. 
 
In all indicated thunder areas there is a threat of damaging winter lightning to tall structures due to their stronger current strokes.

 

 

 

http://www.estofex.org/

Link to post
Share on other sites

A really interesting set up for tomorrow for the west and south. We have the first front that brings a tightening of the winds, starting mid morning for the SW, moving to the IOW for midday and then the SE for mid afternoon. generally coastal areas and those 30 miles or so inland could see sustained winds of 40mph, exposed coastal areas IOW, portland etc 50mph sustained, gusts generally 20-25 mph higher, however the models are increasingly developing a wedge of winds aroud midnight as well for the same areas, similar set up, but winds stronger the SE this time round.

Then as we go into the early hours of Tuesday and Beyond it switches to the NW.

As the winds monday are gust induced due to unstable front and development localised very high winds likely to develop.

The most interesting thing is that this isn't a 3 hr wonder and emergency services will need to be on their toes for a good 24 hrs unfortunately.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Your risk of disruption depends on where your supply is fed from, what else is on the same circuit, and what redundancy is available upstream. Pole mounted LV runs are somewhat vulnerable to wind damage, the greater risk generally comes from the local distribution network where there are longer high voltage runs often through wooded areas. I think you'd be unlucky to still be on when everyone around you was off.-I think the length of time of strong winds could catch some people out.

Good piece of advice. And as there is such saturated/wet ground and with more heavy rain to come those trees are now as at high risk of falling as the events we had during in past weeks with the full leaf trees

 

(should say an added risk and so a higher risk of tree fall because of very wet ground)

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

There really hasn't been much change overnight, so the possibility of last minute downgrades seems to be decreasing. ECM shows the low around 930mb and the UKMO shows it just higher. The Met Office wind map shows the windspeeds for the South East slightly stronger than yesterday, with Hastings now forecast to get to 79mph.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/swindon-swindon#?tab=map&map=GustSpeed&zoom=8&lon=-0.31&lat=51.29&fcTime=1387800000

 

Also, from Thomasz Schafernaker on Twitter:

 

"Stormy Mon-Tue: Likely that across less hardy South UK wind gusts similar to St Jude Storm but this time lasting much longer and wider area"

Edited by Sainsbo
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Getting rather worried atm do you think it will downgrade

 

Not for the SE currently, Met O and NMM have me concerned:

 

post-6667-0-74436500-1387705272_thumb.pn  
 
post-6667-0-62802100-1387705033_thumb.pn
 
post-6667-0-37329100-1387705023_thumb.pn
Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh dear - it's still deepening then, every run seems to be an upgrade.

I know all these upgrades when i personally wish this storm would jog on.The other way if possible Edited by itsnowjoke
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...