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Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period


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Not very often you see a Low pressure predicted for 940mbs so near to the Uk!!!!!Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

That looks pretty ominous, reminds me of the chart for the Burn's Day storm in 1990.

Thankfully not from the daily mail.

The Daily Express don't you mean?..

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Of course. But that's not causing panic and isn't what posters have been saying. "we're going to get totalled" isn't the same as "don't leave your patio set loose outside".

I meant people would be better doing that rather than causing panic !
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where on earth do you think the BBC get their data from?

Yes exactly - if the BBC are warning on the MetOffice's data, then the MetOffice will surely put out their own warnings soon.

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Tuesday looking okay for us plus southerly winds so we will miss the action. Same really for Monday wrong direction so we'll be sheltered again. Plenty of time for it too change though.

 

No! Say it ain't so!  You know when these daft teevee forecasters come out with the ludicrous suggestion that you should just drop everything and head off to such-and-such place if it's gonna be too hot/cold/wet etc for you? Well whenever wind and rain is in the offing they ought to specify South Yorkshire as the safe haven 'cos we always get sod-all, and that's a fact.

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No! Say it ain't so!  You know when these daft teevee forecasters come out with the ludicrous suggestion that you should just drop everything and head off to such-and-such place if it's gonna be too hot/cold/wet etc for you? Well whenever wind and rain is in the offing they ought to specify South Yorkshire as the safe haven 'cos we always get sod-all, and that's a fact.

By us I'm mean Sheffield and really Sheffield south west. Anywhere exposed to southerly wind won't have a pleasant day.  I suspect parts of the Dronfield by pass will be rather interesting as well.

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By us I'm mean Sheffield and really Sheffield south west. Anywhere exposed to southerly wind won't have a pleasant day.  I suspect parts of the Dronfield by pass will be rather interesting as well.

The whole of the UK pretty much is predicted to get very strong winds tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night!

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Looking at the GFS the NW of England is supposed to be in for a right battering (along with everywhere else)

Now looking at the latest ukmet forecast for my location we are down for a Max gust of 47mph on Monday. There is still a large difference in the predicted wind speeds for here and I'm sure there will be for other areas as well.

I think caution is to be advised, the met office will issue further warnings when applicable, the gfs charts do look poor, but personally i'll be paying more attention to what the met office say.

There is still time for a change.

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They have got warnings out.

Only yellow ones though - I'd have though 70MPH+ would be amber. Do the Met Office publish any 'rules' on how they define their warning levels?

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The whole of the UK pretty much is predicted to get very strong winds tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night!

Yup but we are very sheltered from that direction. If they swing more to the south east you could have 100 mph winds and we'd notice sweat nothing as we're totally sheltered from the SE. Yet from the south west,  west and north west it's straight across from the moors. Local topography does have an effect on local weather. 

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Only yellow ones though - I'd have though 70MPH+ would be amber. Do the Met Office publish any 'rules' on how they define their warning levels?

Yes because the storm is still a couple of days away there's still time for it's path and intensity to change for better or worse, they issue Yellow (be aware) warnings within a few days of significant weather Amber warnings closer to the arrival of the storm (within 24 hours) I would think. In terms of intensity 40-50mph would warrant a Yellow warning I would think, 60-70mph an Amber and anything much over 80mph would surely warrant a Red warning!

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The whole of the UK pretty much is predicted to get very strong winds tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night!

There aren't any strong winds forecast for us tomorrow I think you've got the days mixed up. 44mph is the highest gust I can see round our area tomorrow.

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Only yellow ones though - I'd have though 70MPH+ would be amber. Do the Met Office publish any 'rules' on how they define their warning levels?

 

They may well add Amber warnings as we get closer.

Many factors contribute to an Amber warning, trees in leaf being one of them. At this time of the year, leaves have fallen off, so there's less drag on the trees during strong winds. Wind direction also plays a part, so for now, early yellow warnings seem suitable. 

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They may well add Amber warnings as we get closer.

Many factors contribute to an Amber warning, trees in leaf being one of them. At this time of the year, leaves have fallen off, so there's drag on the tree during strong winds. Wind direction also plays a part, so for now, early yellow warnings seem suitable. 

Trees are only 1 factor to take into consideration, and if the winds reach 70mph+ they can still come down even without many leaves on. They should still be issuing warnings due to the possibility of other hazards like roof slates etc..

There aren't any strong winds forecast for us tomorrow I think you've got the days mixed up. 44mph is the highest gust I can see round our area tomorrow.

Well it might not be anything exceptional but 44mph is still a Gale so it depends on your definition of what a strong wind is lmao

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Only yellow ones though - I'd have though 70MPH+ would be amber. Do the Met Office publish any 'rules' on how they define their warning levels?

 

Although the potential damage is high from this low, there are still a few days before it's due to hit. Their warnings are based on both the damage that may be caused by the storm and by how likely it is to happen. As we get closer to the event, and the probability of this happening increases, I'm sure more warnings will be put out/the current warnings will be upgraded.

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Trees are only 1 factor to take into consideration, and if the winds reach 70mph+ they can still come down even without many leaves on. They should still be issuing warnings due to the possibility of other hazards like roof slates etc..

Well it might not be anything exceptional but 44mph is still a Gale so it depends on your definition of what a strong wind is lmao

A 44 mph gust isn't gale force.  Gale force is judged on the average wind speed. On more bizarre days our average winds was 10 mph but we still had 50 mph gusts.

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Trees are only 1 factor to take into consideration, and if the winds reach 70mph+ they can still come down even without many leaves on. They should still be issuing warnings due to the possibility of other hazards like roof slates etc..

Well it might not be anything exceptional but 44mph is still a Gale so it depends on your definition of what a strong wind is lmao

go to their web site and take a look, everything is laid out clearly for definitions etc

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I'm not quite sure what to say after running the 850 temps, 500 heights and wind speed/direction output on the latest GFS run.  Not only for Monday/Tuesday but also for the 27th.

 

Monday's/Tuesday's storm barrels across the Atlantic then stays put over the northern Irish Sea for a long time and still strongly influencing us on Christmas Day.  The storm on the 27th looks just as furious.

 

Below is the response from the Met Office to my tweet just this morning:

 

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/414355927220105216

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A 44 mph gust isn't gale force.  Gale force is judged on the average wind speed. On more bizarre days our average winds was 10 mph but we still had 50 mph gusts.

I'm not sure about that lol, for there to be 40-50mph the average wind needs to be about 20mph+ at least I wasn't aware a Gale was based on average speed as it's gusts that do the damage to surely a wind of 35-40mph plus gusts deserves to be billed a gale?...If that was the case then they wouldn't bother with the weather warnings for a depression producing 50mph+ gusts.

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Trees are only 1 factor to take into consideration, and if the winds reach 70mph+ they can still come down even without many leaves on. They should still be issuing warnings due to the possibility of other hazards like roof slates etc..

Well it might not be anything exceptional but 44mph is still a Gale so it depends on your definition of what a strong wind is lmao

 

The best comparison I can give, is the St Jude storm. I was under that Amber warning at the time, 70 - 80mph projected .. Trees were down all over the place, the dreaded wheelie bins littered streets like rogue daleks etc .. On Wednesday, 70 - 80 mph gusts were happening again, apart from a hand full of Xmas trees and a few roof slates blown down, it wasn't as destructive as St Jude, locally though, (about 8 miles from the coast as the crow flies) Wednesday's winds seemed stronger.

 

The current NMM output is quite something though, 8 to 12 hours of severe gales down on the coast with another round on western coasts on Tuesday.

 

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