South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 18/12/13

[JennyJane1]

Anyway, weatherwise seems calm today, a little chillier than yesterday.

a good theory, apart from the fact london has been very dry this winter so far.

My memory! Was it the year before last year it never seemed to stop raining then? Could that have started it off?

[knightrider]

Not liking the look of 70-80MPH across Southern England 

 

"There is the potential for widespread gales with gusts of 70 mph for much of Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, southern and northwest England"

Go on the Met Office website and check out the gust prediction chart for Monday night into Tuesday morning it looks insane. Even well inland and around Greater London it indicates 60-70mph gusts with 70-80mph the nearer you get to the south coast, I know it's still a fair way off and things could change for the better or worse depending on which way you look at it but my word I haven't seen MetO models forecast those sort of winds in donkey's years, probably since the 27th October 2002 storm. To put in in comparison most of the inland gust predictions before St'Jude where only around 50-55mph max apart from in the papers and on the TV forecasts which seemed to over exaggerate it as 80mph inland which I was never convinced about because St'Jude was only just being born when she crossed the UK as compared to this which will be fully formed and at it's peak intensity when it makes landfall by the looks of it!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Go on the Met Office website and check out the gust prediction chart for Monday night into Tuesday morning it looks insane. Even well inland and around Greater London it indicates 60-70mph gusts with 70-80mph the nearer you get to the south coast, I know it's still a fair way off and things could change for the better or worse depending on which way you look at it but my word I haven't seen MetO models forecast those sort of winds in donkey's years, probably since the 27th October 2002 storm. To put in in comparison most of the inland gust predictions before St'Jude where only around 50-55mph max apart from in the papers and on the TV forecasts which seemed to over exaggerate it as 80mph inland which I was never convinced about because St'Jude was only just being born when she crossed the UK as compared to this which will be fully formed and at it's peak intensity when it makes landfall by the looks of it!

 

Its not only that but how long they hang around! From about 6PM Monday night through till Tuesday Morning could see 50-70MPH across the region Not good at all..

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london-greater-london#?tab=map&map=GustSpeed&zoom=5&lon=-4.00&lat=54.63&fcTime=1387800000 

[Coast]

Where's my invite Coast?

 

Open house for you always, as you know Jules (I'll leave the key under the mat!!)

 

Starting to get a bit punch drunk from the effects of all these lows hitting us and the next few days our region is in for a bashing again.  Yellow warnings for wind and rain out for tonight for us:

 

 

Yellow warning of Rain

 

Issued at: 

1201 on Fri 20 Dec 2013

 

Valid from: 

1500 on Fri 20 Dec 2013

 

Valid to: 

2359 on Fri 20 Dec 2013

 

An area of heavy, rain along with strong to gale force winds, is expected to cross the UK during Friday afternoon and the first part of Friday night. This will bring some locally large accumulations of rain, particularly on hills. Following previous wet weather, this may lead to some localised flooding across some western and central parts of Scotland, north and mid-Wales and northwest England. 

 

This is an update to the Alert issued on Wednesday.

 

The public should be aware of the potential for disruption from flooding and keep up to date with latest forecasts and warnings from the Met Office, Environment Agency and Scottish Environment Protection Agency.

 

The public should be aware of the potential for disruption from flooding and keep up to date with latest forecasts and warnings from the Met Office, Environment Agency and Scottish Environment Protection Agency.

 

A deep low pressure system is moving across the Atlantic, arriving into western parts of the UK on Friday afternoon. With mild air and strong winds some large rainfall totals are possible, particularly over high ground in the western and central Scotland, northwest England and north Wales. Melting snow particularly from the hills of the southern and western Highlands will add to river flows in some areas.

 

Brighton and Hove, East Sussex, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Portsmouth, Southampton, Surrey, West Sussex

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1387584000&regionName=se

 

Another one for tomorrow:

 

 

 

Yellow warning of Rain 

 

Issued at: 1207 on Fri 20 Dec 2013

 

Valid from: 

1800 on Fri 20 Dec 2013

 

Valid to: 

1500 on Sat 21 Dec 2013

 

An area of heavy rain and strong winds is expected to cross England and Wales during Friday afternoon and through Saturday. This will bring some locally large rainfall accumulations, particularly on hills, and following previous wet weather is likely to lead to some localised flooding. 

 

This is an update to the Alert issued yesterday.

 

The public should be aware of the potential for disruption from flooding and keep up to date with latest forecasts and warnings from the Met Office, Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales.

 

A deep low pressure system is moving across the Atlantic, arriving into western parts of England and Wales during Friday afternoon. With mild air and strong winds some large rainfall totals are possible, particularly over high ground in south Wales and southwest England.

 

Brighton and Hove, East Sussex, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Portsmouth, Southampton, Surrey, West Sussex

 

 

 

 and then one for Monday and Tuesday!

 

 

 

Yellow warning of Wind

 

Issued at: 

1247 on Fri 20 Dec 2013

 

Valid from: 

0600 on Mon 23 Dec 2013

 

Valid to: 

2359 on Tue 24 Dec 2013

 

A very deep area of low pressure will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to much of the UK from Monday morning, through to late Tuesday morning. There is the potential for widespread gales with gusts of 70 mph for much of Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, southern and northwest England. Gusts of 80-90 mph are possible, with the greatest likelihood of these values across west Scotland.

 

The public should be aware of the potential for significant disruption to travel due to the very strong winds and also the risk of some flooding issues thanks to the heavy rain.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop in the Atlantic on Sunday, deepening rapidly to pass just to the NW of the UK on Monday and into Tuesday. This will bring stormy conditions to the UK on Monday and Tuesday with the strongest winds likely along coastlines exposed to the south and west. Heavy rain is expected with this low pressure system and given recent wet conditions some flooding issues are possible.

 

With such a rapid development there remains some uncertainty around the precise depth and track of this system, and hence the areas most likely to be affected by the strongest winds and heavy rain. This alert is likely to be updated in the coming days.

 

 

 

Bracknell Forest, Brighton and Hove, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Portsmouth, Southampton, Surrey, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead

 

 

 

Yellow warning of Wind

 

Issued at: 

1247 on Fri 20 Dec 2013

 

Valid from: 

0600 on Mon 23 Dec 2013

 

Valid to: 

2359 on Tue 24 Dec 2013

 

A very deep area of low pressure will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to much of the UK from Monday morning, through to late Tuesday morning. There is the potential for widespread gales with gusts of 70 mph for much of Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, southern and northwest England. Gusts of 80-90 mph are possible, with the greatest likelihood of these values across west Scotland.

 

The public should be aware of the potential for significant disruption to travel due to the very strong winds and also the risk of some flooding issues thanks to the heavy rain.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop in the Atlantic on Sunday, deepening rapidly to pass just to the NW of the UK on Monday and into Tuesday. This will bring stormy conditions to the UK on Monday and Tuesday with the strongest winds likely along coastlines exposed to the south and west. Heavy rain is expected with this low pressure system and given recent wet conditions some flooding issues are possible.

 

With such a rapid development there remains some uncertainty around the precise depth and track of this system, and hence the areas most likely to be affected by the strongest winds and heavy rain. This alert is likely to be updated in the coming days.

 

 

Never seen anything like it, never seen anything like it, I've never seen anything like it my life! 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Rain - wind - rain - wind and rain - rain and wind - wind - rain - rain wind 

 

Sorry was just seeing what the next 3-4 days hold..

[Coast]

Check the blue feature creeping up on the South tomorrow afternoon, I know that areas North of us are in for problems, but we don't totally escape it if GFS is on the ball:

 

 

Convergence across Kent and Essex (Paul Sherman, what do you make of this?)

 

The worst of the gusts up above us, but there's a line over us too:

 

[Coast]

I've gone through tomorrow's NMM from Netweather and a lot of the action is set for coastal regions yet again, with wind being the bigger threat, rain is on it's way but is more for Sunday:

 

 

 

 

I daren't go further than that at the moment, I need to keep my spirits high (and my glass full!)

 

 

 

[Coast]

[Sussex Jules]

Go on the Met Office website and check out the gust prediction chart for Monday night into Tuesday morning it looks insane. Even well inland and around Greater London it indicates 60-70mph gusts with 70-80mph the nearer you get to the south coast, I know it's still a fair way off and things could change for the better or worse depending on which way you look at it but my word I haven't seen MetO models forecast those sort of winds in donkey's years, probably since the 27th October 2002 storm. To put in in comparison most of the inland gust predictions before St'Jude where only around 50-55mph max apart from in the papers and on the TV forecasts which seemed to over exaggerate it as 80mph inland which I was never convinced about because St'Jude was only just being born when she crossed the UK as compared to this which will be fully formed and at it's peak intensity when it makes landfall by the looks of it!

Actually that is incorrect up until the St Jude storm hit Met O were indicating on their computer generated forecast gusts of 83 mph for here. I think Monday night into Tuesday is looking slightly better than the St Jude storm and that's the only comfort I can find at the moment.

 

Open house for you always, as you know Jules (I'll leave the key under the mat!!)

 

 

Cool I can return your outdoor lights at the same time!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Actually that is incorrect up until the St Jude storm hit Met O were indicating on their computer generated forecast gusts of 83 mph for here. I think Monday night into Tuesday is looking slightly better than the St Jude storm and that's the only comfort I can find at the moment.

Cool I can return your outdoor lights at the same time!

 

Depends really the max we got here at heathrow was 68MPH if we get a 70MPH then we have beaten it 

[Jason T]

 

 

Bring it on Coast, The only problem is we have to rely on storm force winds to drag the cold air in to achieve a chance of snow,  Never simple is it.

[Sussex Jules]

Depends really the max we got here at heathrow was 68MPH if we get a 70MPH then we have beaten it 

Totally agree with you, trying to not think about beating it to be honest but I was talking about predictions beforehand.

[Tamara]

Go on the Met Office website and check out the gust prediction chart for Monday night into Tuesday morning it looks insane. Even well inland and around Greater London it indicates 60-70mph gusts with 70-80mph the nearer you get to the south coast, I know it's still a fair way off and things could change for the better or worse depending on which way you look at it but my word I haven't seen MetO models forecast those sort of winds in donkey's years, probably since the 27th October 2002 storm. To put in in comparison most of the inland gust predictions before St'Jude where only around 50-55mph max apart from in the papers and on the TV forecasts which seemed to over exaggerate it as 80mph inland which I was never convinced about because St'Jude was only just being born when she crossed the UK as compared to this which will be fully formed and at it's peak intensity when it makes landfall by the looks of it!

I think this post is rather an exaggeration  There is no doubt that the low at the start of next week is a very deep one and widespread gales are almost certain, but the windspeeds suggested for Monday (in this region) are no higher than the St Jude's storm, just as one very recent example, and there are many more one could choose in much more recent years than 2002. It could be a different matter for parts of Western Scotland however, on the southern flank closest to the centre of the low to the north west of Scotland.

 

Most every time there is a major seasonal atlantic storm there are suggestions of the 'strongest storm since...'. Lets hope we don't start seeing October 87 comparisons yet again over the next day or two

Its also worth pointing out that the windspeed gusts tend to get exaggerated by the METO website and therefore should not be taken too much at face value. The 80 mph gusts indicated for this local part of the coastal region in the St Judes storm were not attained, with the strongest gusts closer to 65 to 70mph for a short time in the early hours of the Monday morning. 

 

This over stating of wind speeds along the coast tends to occur most times there are gales in this region. Last week they were suggesting on the website that the windspeeds here would be virtually as strong as those of NW Scotland and N Ireland where the amber warnings were in place, and despite there not even being an advisory in place in the south !

[Sussex Jules]

That's the nasty Tory party for you! As if we need yet more examples..shocking story tbh.

Needless to say, stay safe all down in the SE and season greetings.

Aww that's sweet same to you tx1

[Keraunic]

Nowt exciting weather wise for EA then? Just think....this time next week..it'll all be over.

Quite chilly here in Ippy but the sun has been shining all day. If the skies remain clear, it might be a chilly old night.

[Snowangel-MK]

 so I decided to run back to the house to grab the can of de-icer Mr Raven bought over the weekend, and well - what can I say, other than the de-icer didn't live up to its name!

 

 

 

Maybe you should have grabbed the man and not the can lol......  I didn't even have to ask Mr P was out there clearing my screen before I'd even got my coat on bless him....mind you it was that or he got the bus to work ! 

 

That's it for me today ...POETS day and an evening in good company with a litre bottle of Baileys between us 

[Summer of 76]

Any one care to transalate this post

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78796-possible-severe-atlantic-storm-christmas-day-and-boxing-day/?p=2867238

[Sussex Jules]

Any one care to transalate this post

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78796-possible-severe-atlantic-storm-christmas-day-and-boxing-day/?p=2867238

Grr tricked I have got him on ignore!

[Eskimo]

Any one care to transalate this post

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78796-possible-severe-atlantic-storm-christmas-day-and-boxing-day/?p=2867238

 

[Keraunic]

Any one care to transalate this post

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78796-possible-severe-atlantic-storm-christmas-day-and-boxing-day/?p=2867238

Hmmmm, a bit rambling, but obviously English not quite up to scratch and not his first language.

[snow raven]

Maybe you should have grabbed the man and not the can lol......  I didn't even have to ask Mr P was out there clearing my screen before I'd even got my coat on bless him....mind you it was that or he got the bus to work ! 

 

That's it for me today ...POETS day and an evening in good company with a litre bottle of Baileys between us 

 To be fair to Mr Raven, he was busy scraping his car at the same time!  Was disapointed with the de-icer though as I was hoping to beat Mr Raven with my handy little weapon in the Great British Scrape Off this morning!

 

Any one care to transalate this post

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78796-possible-severe-atlantic-storm-christmas-day-and-boxing-day/?p=2867238

 Aww, bless him - I bet his English is better than my Estonian!

Edited December 20, 2013 by snow raven

[Eskimo]

I heard somewhere that forums were one of the best places to be to pick up a language. Give him a year and he'll speak better English than me!

Edited December 20, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[fluid dynamic]

Hmmmm, a bit rambling, but obviously English not quite up to scratch and not his first language.

Someone's been using 'google translate' I think. Its good if you speak absolutley none of the lingo, but its a little bit deficient in many areas.

[JennyJane1]

This area is worried about further storms, you might have seen reports about the coastal communities near here, for example, at Hopton, some houses were swept into the sea in the st Jude's storm, plenty of houses in the towns at Lowestoft were flooded, and just round the coast at places like Cromer there were serious problems.

 

Calm at the moment.

 

Luckily the spot I am in did not suffer from the previous storm, but that's not to say I will be saved next time, you can always have a difficulty such as roof tiles blown away or a window smashed or something.

 

Its like the snow isn't it?We love the snow so long as we aren't out in it when its dangerous, and we love a good storm so long as there's no damage to property or life.

I think the temperature here must have dropped quite a lot as I am feeling very cold now.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Hmmmm, a bit rambling, but obviously English not quite up to scratch and not his first language.

He needs to start a Estonian thread because Google translate is not quite up to scratch! It does work well for the Scottish regional discussions though

Edited December 20, 2013 by LincolnSnowstorm