Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[Tamara]

I am not convinced that the upper ridge has to be in the area you suggest Tamara. In none of the 500mb charts I have looked at in the past 20-30 minutes for December 2009, January 2010 or December 2010 was that the case. There was an upper trough in the eastern Pacific and an upper ridge over the western coast of North America.

hopefully see one example below=sorry will not allow it, I'll try again

~$0mb chart 1 jan 2010.doc

not sure if anyone will be able to see this?

As to how much effect this pattern then had downstream with another marked ridge showing in the Greenland/Iceland area I cannot remember without looking in detail at the huge data files I keep of anomaly charts. This in turn gave a cold flow north of west over the Uk and the subsequent continuation of wintry weather?

it looks as if it will not open up, sorry about that

The essence of the importance of the Pacific Ridge and how it might impact the patterns this January is documented in some valuable analogue material in the stratosphere thread relating to major warming events during a westerly QBO.

 

January 2009 being the case in point

 

Strong poleward anomalies then over the Eastern Pacific promoted wave 2 activity with favourable flux that were the precursor to major warming that led to the cold spell and easterly at the end of January and into February. As Chiono says, if i recall correctly from that thread, the 100hPa heat flux should be monitored closely this coming month.

 

In this sense then the Pacific ridge this January, is entirely relevant to this +QBO 'solar maximum' winter. So far so good it seems in this respect - hence the longer game that is being played here

Edited December 28, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I do prefer the scientific methods, Fred...Much better over the past years, IMO...

Fair enough but let's see, I think alternative forecasts have at least matched scientific methods, although I believe alternaive methods are very much scientific?

 

BFTP

Edited December 28, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[TSNWK]

Reading Stevens post above I would say that ECM and GFS are pretty similar at 144.. Not good.for cold.

Edited December 28, 2013 by TSNWK

[Summer Sun]

ECM is out to t144 and it maintains the unsettled theme with further wind and rain to come next week

 

 

GFS at the same time

 

Edited December 28, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Continental Climate]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif!! A pretty uninspiring chart I think, not sure there is going to be much on offer for coldies for at least the first three weeks of January.

[Gaz1985]

Zonal sums things up - wet with temperatures near average throughout.

 

[Summer Sun]

t168 from ECM keeps low pressure over the UK high pressure continues to build to our east

 

[Gael_Force]

The essence of the importance of the Pacific Ridge and how it might impact the patterns this January is documented in some valuable analogue material in the stratosphere thread relating to major warming events during a westerly QBO.

 

January 2009 being the case in point

 

Strong poleward anomalies then over the Eastern Pacific promoted wave 2 activity with favourable flux that were the precursor to major warming that led to the cold spell and easterly at the end of January and into February. As Chiono says, if i recall correctly from that thread, the 100hPa heat flux should be monitored closely this coming month.

 

In this sense then the Pacific ridge this January, is entirely relevant to this +QBO 'solar maximum' winter. So far so good it seems in this respect - hence the longer game that is being played here

 

Just to remind ourselves of the 500mb evolution during January 2009, the whole month in the form of a model run.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=1&day=1&year=2009&map=4&hour=0

 

I'm assuming you are talking about that level and not higher up as there are no strat archives for that far back.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122812/ECH1-168.GIF?28-0

ECM 168 - have we got enough of a wedge on the atlantic to get that secondary low NE instead of East like the GFS!

 

The jet looks nice & SE ahead of the high which is a plus point.

 

S

[Summer Sun]

Another deep low from ECM at t192 whether it will hit the UK remains to be seen

 

[TSNWK]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122812/ECH1-168.GIF?28-0ECM 168 - have we got enough of a wedge on the atlantic to get that secondary low NE instead of East like the GFS! The jet looks nice & SE ahead of the high which is a plus point. S

ECM at 192 sent a load of energy south east, is that what you were expecting? And now what

[Duane S.]

Very progressive in terms of dropping of energy SE from +168 to +192 from the ECM. Interesting...

 

[cooling climate]

Very encouraging signs from the stratosphere taken from the instant weather maps

based on the GFS 12z output. This could all change by the next run but if this is

correct then its excellent news going forward for later in January and through

February. February 47 anyone.

[Summer Sun]

The low to our NW at t192 eases before it gets to the UK

 

[TSNWK]

ECM 216 is poor for cold, following an interesting 192 as the Azores high ridges in and flatterns the lot. Next.....

Edited December 28, 2013 by TSNWK

[Bristawl Si]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif!! A pretty uninspiring chart I think, not sure there is going to be much on offer for coldies for at least the first three weeks of January.

3 weeks!I've got 30 mins to buy a lotto ticket for tonite - can you tell me the 6 numbers that will drop tonite? Cheers, in advance.

[cooling climate]

Fair enough but let's see, I think alternative forecasts have at least matched scientific methods, although I believe alternaive methods are very much scientific?

 

BFTP

More like science fiction. No sign of  very cold spell beginning of Jan onwards either.

Lets keep it real.

[Summer Sun]

t240 ends with westerly winds

 

[Joe Levy]

I am not looking for cold in the time frame that the ECM currently covers, as I don't believe the upstream pattern would yet be right by that stage. I am more interested in the development of the NH profile through the latter stages of the ECM, such as the development of high pressure over the Arctic. It will take time, but I do still believe the second half of January has a lot of potential, based on strat forecasts and the wise words and analysis of numerous members of this forum who continue to educate me with their technical knowledge. We need to wait for that time frame to come into range before we can start seeing stellar runs in my opinion.

[Purga]

ECM finishes on a grim note for coldies after a try at 168hrs

 

 

 

flat unsettled and zonal yet again.

[TSNWK]

So the potential at 144 was not realised, it looked like it might at 168 but the writing was on the wall at 192 and quite frankly the 216 and 240 are poor charts for cold as they stand and It looks a long way to cold if they verified.

Roll on the pub run.

[Continental Climate]

3 weeks!

I've got 30 mins to buy a lotto ticket for tonite - can you tell me the 6 numbers that will drop tonite? Cheers, in advance.

An educated guess mate, I think the models have a pretty good handle on things for at least the next ten days and with the strength of the vortex and the freezing cold in Canada powering the jet up I think it will take three weeks just to break that pattern then you have the transitional period to a colder pattern and there you have the first three weeks of Jan taken care of.

 

Oh and the met office agree with me as well they are saying zonal to at least the end of Jan. Like CC says lets keep it real.

 

Oh and the numbers you cant go far wrong with 1,2,3,4,5,6

[Captain Shortwave]

Where is this raging vortex and continuous zonal westerlies on the ECM. 

Canadian Vortex drained, dominant lobe is the Siberian one. We have a trough out to the west of the UK which for the time being would bring milder west/south westerlies. But when that moves through, expect a ridge northwards in the Atlantic as the jet continues to decrease in strength.

Just keep looking at the profile to the north west. Those purples are quickly starting to disappear from our most troublesome spot. Surely that can only be good in the long run.

Edited December 28, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[The Post-modern Winter]

I am not looking for cold in the time frame that the ECM currently covers, as I don't believe the upstream pattern would yet be right by that stage. I am more interested in the development of the NH profile through the latter stages of the ECM, such as the development of high pressure over the Arctic. It will take time, but I do still believe the second half of January has a lot of potential, based on strat forecasts and the wise words and analysis of numerous members of this forum who continue to educate me with their technical knowledge. We need to wait for that time frame to come into range before we can start seeing stellar runs in my opinion.

What Joe says is completely true. Let the mildies and doomsayers have their moment as it is clear from the Strat thread and the Met Office updates (something certain posters cling to when attempting to challenge those calling for a pattern change to colder conditons) that the third week of january onwards is brimming with potential. Perhaps CreweCold will be at least half right as a cold end to january moves into february

[IDO]

From T192 to T216 the westerly surface flow rode over the upper s.Euro trough, aided by a NE pushing Short Wave in the Azores High:

 

 

This has been a growing thorn in the side of the GEFS lately. And by T216: 

 

Similar to the GFS op, with the polar high sinking SE towards W.Canada, pushing the Canadian vortex east (towards Greenland). Thats probably no coincidence, as this would certainly enhance the easterly Atlantic flow.

 

Hope they are both wrong, but another possibility, and this option delays a meridional pattern. The mean will be a better guide for the ECM from D7 IMO so best wait on that.

Edited December 28, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...