Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[carinthian]

Well thats me done. The hog is cooked, the Christmas lights working, the wife back from work and the kids over for the holiday.

Time for some local brew and Euro pop in the pub. Snow in the forecast for the next two days. Perfect !. Stay safe over there in the UK. Your reward will be a snowfest in January with low pressure over Europe and a strong Scandinvian developing for the rest of the winter.

 C

[karyo]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/50/gfsnh-0-144_sjb5.pnghttp://images.meteociel.fr/im/2613/UN144-21_lqp6.GIFIt maybe that it is a bit slower than the GFS and not as progressive rather than underwhelming?

From what I see the UKMO is flatter and the surface pressure over Greenland is lower.

[Mucka]

On balance GFS ensembles backing the quicker progression for cold prospects of the Op (prospects that is)

The 12z ensemble set in the hi res section are probably the most encouraging this winter as regards potential (potential that is)

It is only one model and one run though so the long search for cold will continue for a while yet.

Still it was over a week ago I was first talking up the idea of conditions being more favourable for blocking to form end of December/early January and it was hard sell back then but the output has trended the right way, very slowly, since then and now the potential is obvious - whether it is fulfilled or not remains in the balance.

Edited December 24, 2013 by Mucka

[Purga]

The birth of a decent easterly?

 

[legritter]

Happy Christmas to all my fellow posters  well models keeping us on our toes at the moment ,and there are some signs of something possibly popping up for coldies in some of the later GFS runs today ..we just need to get other Models on board i feel before we can start counting our Turkeys .CATCH YOU ALL UP LATER cheers 

[IDO]

From what I see the UKMO is flatter and the surface pressure over Greenland is lower.

 

 

Its strange. If you look at the three main models they all have different heights over Greenland, even at 06h:

 

GFS has 1025:   UKMO has 1010: 

 

GEM has 1030:   Navgem has 1025: 

 

Looking at current conditions, the nearest town to the max high is Neem in Greenland. Its current reading is 1021.6 hpa which sort of suggests that UKMO have wrong starting figures, or am I missing something?

[draztik]

Well thats me done. The hog is cooked, the Christmas lights working, the wife back from work and the kids over for the holiday.Time for some local brew and Euro pop in the pub. Snow in the forecast for the next two days. Perfect !. Stay safe over there in the UK. Your reward will be a snowfest in January with low pressure over Europe and a strong Scandinvian developing for the rest of the winter. C

seemingly you have completely disregarded the latest ec32, and binned that evolution? Because at face value, it does not show what you suggest.a touch misleading, and false hope is no hope at all. I'm not saying it wont evolve, but where is the evidence to corroborate this vision? Most lrm I look at keep a fairly zonal theme. Edited December 24, 2013 by draztik

[Mucka]

GFS 12z ensembles for SE England

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=289&y=122&run=12&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=289&y=122&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

If this trend continues I think the Met Office may reconsider there 30 day outlook of spells of mild wet and windy - with risk of any significant snow low except on high ground in the North.

They are probably wisely being cautious and hopefully they don't know something we don't (barring the extra data they have access to)

I would love to hear Ian Ferguson's/MetO's take on the latest output and chances of something more wintry in January even if it is just much higher chance of transient snowfalls to low levels than they are currently forecasting.

Edited December 24, 2013 by Mucka

[ukpaul]

seemingly you have completely disregarded the latest ec32, and binned that evolution? Because at face value, it does not show what you suggest.a touch misleading, and false hope is no hope at all. I'm not saying it wont evolve, but where is the evidence to corroborate this vision? Most lrm I look at keep a fairly zonal theme.

Carinthian has, I believe, access to information via forecasts for Austria (or something like that)..

Edited December 24, 2013 by ukpaul

[SLEETY]

seemingly you have completely disregarded the latest ec32, and binned that evolution? Because at face value, it does not show what you suggest.a touch misleading, and false hope is no hope at all. I'm not saying it wont evolve, but where is the evidence to corroborate this vision? Most lrm I look at keep a fairly zonal theme.

well considering the late time frame of the ec32 is usually hopelessly wrong ,I think it's a good call going against it's output.

[swfc]

seemingly you have completely disregarded the latest ec32, and binned that evolution? Because at face value, it does not show what you suggest.a touch misleading, and false hope is no hope at all. I'm not saying it wont evolve, but where is the evidence to corroborate this vision? Most lrm I look at keep a fairly zonal theme.

i think it was meant with the seasons goodwill tbh.

[Troubleatmill]

Its strange. If you look at the three main models they all have different heights over Greenland, even at 06h:

 

GFS has 1025: gfsnh-0-6.png  UKMO has 1010: UN6-21.gif

 

GEM has 1030: gemnh-0-6.png  Navgem has 1025: navgemnh-0-6.png

 

Looking at current conditions, the nearest town to the max high is Neem in Greenland. Its current reading is 1021.6 hpa which sort of suggests that UKMO have wrong starting figures, or am I missing something?

Well spotted! How strange is that, its a large difference between them? Anyone know why that would be?

[Cloud 10]

Ensemble number 17 please...and only at 240 hrs..

 

 

 

Happy Christmas all.and a happy new year???.....

[Panayiotis]

Yes clear signal for something colder towards the end of the run.. (for my location)

Edited December 24, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Captain Shortwave]

Evening all.

Finally back from my adventure across East Anglia and spending time with the family. Also feel rather festive and jolly (opposite of ye olde avatar )

GFS, this looks good

Wedge of heights to the north and a split flow, hopefully the Azores ridge should collapse with the low over the UK sinking into Europe with the winds backing into an easterly quarter.

GEM meh

UKMO

Looks more zonal than the GFS at this point.

Mixed feelings about the output so far.

As for the ECM, might as well show the storm for the 27th

Looks nasty, Northern England, Southern Scotland and Northern Ireland look to be the worst affected regions.

Edited December 24, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[winterof79]

i think it was meant with the seasons goodwill tbh.

I think you will find he posted a few days ago regarding this and the parameters he looks at included the UK not solely where he resides

[nick sussex]

Just looked at the lower resolution GFS output, interesting! OMG please can we get the favourable trough disruption as that's like a domino effect because high pressure will build in from the ne if that's the case.

 

The higher resolution GFS ended up with that small high helping our cause, you don't always need a super big high to instigate a pattern change, now come on ECM cut the Scrooge output!

 

Do you believe in Santa, YES we do!!!!!

 

We await the ECM verdict!

 

At ECM 120hrs there are big differences between the ECM and GFS, the ECM has a better Arctic profile but not sure about the upstream, 144hrs could either be wow or yuk depending on what happens upstream.

Edited December 24, 2013 by nick sussex

[Captain Shortwave]

Just looked at the lower resolution GFS output, interesting! OMG please can we get the favourable trough disruption as that's like a domino effect because high pressure will build in from the ne if that's the case.

 

The higher resolution GFS ended up with that small high helping our cause, you don't always need a super big high to instigate a pattern change, now come on ECM cut the Scrooge output!

 

Do you believe in Santa, YES we do!!!!!

 

We await the ECM verdict!

Well at T120, the ECM is not going to back the GFS here

On the other hand it looks better than the morning run, not sure how this will pan out, possibly a big high out to the East with the deep low heading towards Iceland instead of hitting the UK.

Isn't it nice to be totally wrong

Safe to say I like this.

Edited December 24, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[SMU]

Evening All- A fairly good day from the GFS- beginning to highlight a trend of some higher heights squeezing in towards Iceland-

 

Again the chances of cold heavily reliant on enough vertical advection to keep any low pressure WEST of the CAA moving south into Scandy.

 

Our first real chance at some significant cold over the uk at day 9-11- As ever some luck needed to get everything in place for the cold- The jet will need to ease up for a good 36 hours to allow blocking to get a foot hold & ensure it can remain in situ....

 

S

[Mucka]

ECM 144 big improvement from previous output and heading the right way, loving the Arctic high having a nosey our way.

 

Edited December 24, 2013 by Mucka

[swfc]

better ridging into greenland on ecm at 144 hrs.not sure where this low will develp and go tho?

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122412/ECH1-144.GIF?24-0

ECM 144 is WAY more amplified than the 00z-Looks like an atlantic ridge aiming at the Arctic high!!!S 

[Methuselah]

 

 

Again the chances of cold heavily reliant on enough vertical advection[...]

 

 

What, straight up?

[Captain Shortwave]

3 huge improvements from the ECM here.

1. Arctic high in a much better position.

2. Low in Eastern Canada is deepening rapidly as opposed to a shallow feature which tracked straight east.

3. WAA pushing NNW through Norway.

Simply put, watch the low over Iceland drain South east through the UK into Europe with heights building to the north.

Bingo!!!

Edited December 24, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[SMU]

What, straight up?

 

No more than 30 degrees NE ideally .

 

S

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122412/ECH1-168.GIF?24-0

ECM going via the Scandi back door-different to the GFS

S