Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Flamin' eck

 

 

Would probably rustle a few twigs

[Iceni]

Daily Express I heard

 

 

The Daily Express isn't a multinational. Follow the money.

[shaky]

Is it me or is that low pressure for boxing day getting sent further and further south. Yesterday the centre was near north west Scotland. Now its centre is northern Ireland.

[Rocheydub]

The Daily Express isn't a multinational. Follow the money.

That was posted, I'm fully sure, with a large dose of sarcasm...

[snowice]

_{Lets hope that chart dosn`t come off on Friday27th it would be devasting for Ireland and uk!}

Edited December 22, 2013 by snowice

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18Z wrong! completely got rid of the low at 156, (sun 29th) that will be back on 00Z, too early in season yet for zonal train to stop

[Cheshire Freeze]

A Nice wedge of heights looks to appear over the Arctic, as the crossover from the +AO conditions of most of this month to a more -AO state occurs in time for the new year

 

 

 

Good for me as Happy Days bet his garden shed over in the winter thread the other day that January would be massively +AO and +NAO. Could use a nice new garden shed.....

 

_{Let hope that chart dosn`t come off on Friday it would be devasting for Ireland and uk!}

 

Hang on......I'll get my magnifying glass out.

Edited December 22, 2013 by CreweCold

[TSNWK]

Around 168 to 180 the heights don't look as good over the pole, but in our part of the world it looks fair bit colder... Jeeze this model lark is complicated...

Yes that blow on friday is worrying, lets hope it moderates during the week

[Continental Climate]

Well it seems that things may be falling into place what is catching my eye is a nice southerly tracking jet within the reliable http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn14415.png!!

 

This can only be good and with increasing heights in the arctic that CC alluded to there is plenty to be more optimistic about and hopefully this place will be a bit more lively too.

[Man With Beard]

Flamin' eck

Would probably rustle a few twigs

Could be worse than tomorrow's storm and affecting far more of the nation. These are big, big storms. This christmas week may end living long in the memory for its storms.

[stratty]

Could be worse than tomorrow's storm and affecting far more of the nation. These are big, big storms. This christmas week may end living long in the memory for its storms.

 

.......................before power is lost in these storms...........Happy Christmas all......hopefully colder charts showing by the time power is restored!   Keep safe

[Snowman.]

Around 168 to 180 the heights don't look as good over the pole, but in our part of the world it looks fair bit colder... Jeeze this model lark is complicated...Yes that blow on friday is worrying, lets hope it moderates during the week

Its the 18z, nothing to worry about.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

A Nice wedge of heights looks to appear over the Arctic, as the crossover from the +AO conditions of most of this month to a more -AO state occurs in time for the new year

 

 

 

Good for me as Happy Days bet his garden shed over in the winter thread the other day that January would be massively +AO and +NAO. Could use a nice new garden shed.....

 

 

Hang on......I'll get my magnifying glass out.

Hmm not quite what i said CC.

[The Northern Ramper]

The Daily Express isn't a multinational. Follow the money.

Wow

[cooling climate]

I see some others are now beginning to see what has been showing up

in the models for the last few days now. As BA said though patience

is the key.

The 18z seems to have lost the plot early in the run.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hmm not quite what i said CC.

 

OK OK, here's what you said...,

 

'i can tell you now this winter will not in a million years return a -NAO,i'll bet my garden shed on it.'

 

Very bullish. If it does turn out to be a -NAO winter (and remember a -NAO January and February would ensure this) I want my shed!

[TSNWK]

I see some others are now beginning to see what has been showing upin the models for the last few days now. As BA said though patienceis the key.The 18z seems to have lost the plot early in the run.

Hello. In what way did you think the 18z lost it early in the run :)Incidentally it was nice to see what Greenland looks like, as the vortex lifted out and moved towards scand at the end of the run. Edited December 22, 2013 by TSNWK

[nick sussex]

A disappointing GFS 18hrs run after the 12hrs which was close to delivering a pattern change, the Arctic high edges too far away in the lower resolution. The fastest way out of the current stalemate is the trend of the 12hrs which saw pressure building near Svalbard helped by the clearing of low pressure east into Russia, this left a gap over Norway the little pocket of positive heights then moves nw to meet up and reinforce the Arctic high. This then produces more forcing on the limpet low, puts pressure to edge the jet further south.

 

There is a window of opportunity here within T240hrs but we will need a bit of luck, we need to see the Norway Gap back tomorrow!

[Cheshire Freeze]

A disappointing GFS 18hrs run after the 12hrs which was close to delivering a pattern change, the Arctic high edges too far away in the lower resolution. The fastest way out of the current stalemate is the trend of the 12hrs which saw pressure building near Svalbard helped by the clearing of low pressure east into Russia, this left a gap over Norway the little pocket of positive heights then moves nw to meet up and reinforce the Arctic high. This then produces more forcing on the limpet low, puts pressure to edge the jet further south.

 

There is a window of opportunity here within T240hrs but we will need a bit of luck, we need to see the Norway Gap back tomorrow!

 

Gets there eventually though Nick....Just about!

 

[Jason M]

A disappointing GFS 18hrs run after the 12hrs which was close to delivering a pattern change, the Arctic high edges too far away in the lower resolution. The fastest way out of the current stalemate is the trend of the 12hrs which saw pressure building near Svalbard helped by the clearing of low pressure east into Russia, this left a gap over Norway the little pocket of positive heights then moves nw to meet up and reinforce the Arctic high. This then produces more forcing on the limpet low, puts pressure to edge the jet further south.

 

There is a window of opportunity here within T240hrs but we will need a bit of luck, we need to see the Norway Gap back tomorrow!

 

 

More will be revealed once we see the ensemble suite shortly.

[nick sussex]

Gets there eventually though Nick....Just about!

 

Takes too long and the opportunity is within T240hrs, the Arctic high needs to be taken advantage of as the PV pulls further nw.To add insult to injury the 18hrs tones down the strat warming, generally these warmings even in the lower resolution tend to verify quite well so I'm surprised to see it doing this.

[Mucka]

More will be revealed once we see the ensemble suite shortly.

 

 

Yup and in these situations there is very much more than one way to skin the cat which is in our favour.

We could see more trough disruption past the 7 day mark and a little Icelandic high form for example.

It will be a few days before we know exactly what we are chasing other than favourable blocking I think.

[shaky]

Any Models showing surprise snowfalls in the next few days considering the slack flow and cold 850s??

[Jason M]

Just run through the 12z GEM ensembles and they are quite favourable, as is CFS tonight. obviously huge amounts of scepticism should be employed and tbh my own feeling is a mid lat UK high will be the eventual outcome. At least there is some interest now.

[bluearmy]

Any Models showing surprise snowfalls in the next few days considering the slack flow and cold 850s??

If they are, they wouldnt be a suprise shaky !Extended london ecm ens are at last showing some cold clusters in a fortnight. Slowly but surely. not convinced we have to take the first chance either nick.