Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[Mucka]

Parts of NI and Scotland would be facing Christmas without electricity if this happens

 

 

 

Looks horrific, let's hope it gets moderated somewhat but it looks like there is no way out of some severe storminess in the run up tot he big day and even beyond.

Edited December 20, 2013 by Mucka

[Summer Sun]

We need to keep an eye on Christmas eve for Scotland and NI potential for gusts of 90mph for a time

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

After a couple of days of respite, the next batch of gales and rain moves in.

 

 

A few hours on, looks nasty

 

Edited December 20, 2013 by CreweCold

[MR EXTREMES]

rather messy gfs and ukmo tonight nothing of any interest for longterm cold prospects starting to move towards the ecm now so until the ecm shows better upstream pattern its rather a none runner except the futher north you are.

After a couple of days of respite, the next batch of gales and rain moves in.

 

 

A few hours on, looks nasty

 

 

that would be fantasic chart if everything was moving southeast but its close no cigar.

[gottolovethisweather]

The Jet is holidaying in North Africa for Christmas Day itself but with the turbulent picture I'm imagining it won't be staying there for long. Well done the GFS's various outputs for picking up this signal back on the 16th December if not before. Now eyes down to Boxing Day onwards, albeit at the realms of Fantasy Island at such a timeframe but before then we have to deal with the following.

 

• A very wet day for much of the Southern and Eastern UK on Saturday and pretty windy in parts too.

 

• Sunday starts relatively calm but descends into a dismal day more especially the North of the UK including Ireland, much of Scotland and parts of Northern England where gales are due alongside copious amounts of rain and some snow to higher levels.

 

• Monday is a lively day for much of the UK with potentially storm-force winds and rain spreading up from the SW with this region especially prone to potentially violent gusts of wind and not to be outdone will most parts of Southern England.

 

• Tuesday (Christmas Eve) witnesses another deep depression trundle across parts of the North with further potential for snow across higher parts of the UK with even the SW moors showing the slightest hint for some action, albeit showery by nature here. Hmmm, yes you guessed it, a very windy day likely again.

 

• Wednesday (Christmas Day) looks like a CALMER DAY altogether. Some snow (more especially at elevation), perhaps courtesy of streamers set ups across Scotland, doubtful elsewhere to be honest, but a lot could change yet!

 

• Thursday (Boxing Day) could bring a second successive day of relative calm according to the GFS 12z but not long before another depression starts to rear its ugly head towards the SW approaches.

 

Over to the other afternoon and evening suites to see what they bring us over the festive period.

Edited December 20, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[MR EXTREMES]

some differences that could make the world of difference.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Definite change to the NH pattern into FI....the question is can we benefit from it eventually?

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Another woeful gfs op run with a huge ammount of cold bottled up over Greenland just feeding and feeding the Jet stream across the Atlantic.

I hope those touting improvements as we hit January are right,i can't see it for the life of me though....(yet).

[Summer Sun]

t96 has 15mb difference in the depth of the low between UKMO and GFS

 

 

Either way some severe gales are highly possible in Scotland and Northern Ireland with gusts 70mph to 90mph widely and up-to 90mph in western Scotland over the mountains in western Scotland gusts could top 100mph

[Mucka]

I'm not keen on this evenings output so far I must admit but the GFS did have some positives as well as negatives in high res - slower downstream but flatter upstream so not sure what to make of it except I don't want to see it repeated 

 

UKMO doesn't look great either, oh well still the ensembles and GEM and ECM to come.

Edited December 20, 2013 by Mucka

[The PIT]

Very windy and mostly mild bar one day average for us. Some nasty weather for most over xmas hopefully everybody will come through without any damage.Going well into FI new years eve may give us some chilly respite.

[swfc]

12 z shows us staying wet windy and cool into the new year tbh and not much more imo.Id take a mlb block over xmas rather than all this wind and rain even if some areas with alltitude do get some wintry showers ete.

[Summer Sun]

After a very stormy period of weather we have a much better outlook from the 29th with things becoming a lot calmer as we end 2013 and move into 2014

 

 

Wind speeds would be significantly lighter than what we've had and will get during next week

Edited December 20, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Mucka]

Very windy and mostly mild bar one day average for us. Some nasty weather for most over xmas hopefully everybody will come through without any damage.Going well into FI new years eve may give us some chilly respite.

 

Doesn't look too mild for Sheffield to me.

A couple of mildish days certainly but mostly on the cool side and feeling cold in the wind  I would of thought?

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=262&y=51&run=6&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I'm not keen on this evenings output so far I must admit but the GFS did have some positives as well as negatives in high res - slower downstream but flatter upstream so not sure what to make of it except I don't want to see it repeated 

 

UKMO doesn't look great either, oh well still the ensembles and GEM and ECM to come.

The writing is on the wall for the start of January mucka and has been for a few days now IMO.I thnk we would all love to nuke that PV its destroyed may a winer in the past and is primed to wipe out at least 5 weeks now.

You can bet your bottom dollar the EC 32 is on the ball especially after getting it all very wrong last year when constantly going for height rises to the North west.

[Mucka]

The writing is on the wall for the start of January mucka and has been for a few days now IMO.I thnk we would all love to nuke that PV its destroyed may a winer in the past and is primed to wipe out at least 5 weeks now.

You can bet your bottom dollar the EC 32 is on the ball especially after getting it all very wrong last year when constantly going for height rises to the North west.

 

The Writing may be on the wall for early January as far as chances of deep cold go but I still don't think it is regarding us being in the same position as now (staring down the barrel of a relentless zonal flow. I think if you are optimist like me you want to be looking for signs of blocking developing rather than any actual cold at this stage but I must admit the output so far is fairly poor even looking at it with such limited expectations.

 

So no towel throwing by me yet as far as a possible blocking and cold spell before mid Jan is concerned.

[Summer Sun]

Parts of Sweden and Finland are shown to have temperatures some 6c to 8c above normal over the next 8 days, the coldest spots over here for the next 8 days looks to be Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

 

Looking at the temperatures a lot of Europe is seeing above normal temperatures over the next 8 days

 

Anomaly

 

 

Normal temperatures

 

 

Expected temperatures

 

[IDO]

The difference in this run compared to the 0z is that the packet of heights over Greenland on the 0z...

 

 

...kept channelling the energy through the gap in the HP, exciting the flow, feeding deepening lows towards the SE (UK).

 

The 12z weakens the Greenland heights...

 

 

...allowing the energy to be more evenly distributed over a larger surface area. This allows the AH breathing space to ridge north/east. This was the general synoptic of the 0z ensembles, the pattern edging north, but this appears to be an extreme variation on this theme. Certainly very little support from the 0z ensembles, so likely an outlier, unless of course it has spotted a new trend.

Edited December 20, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[itsnowjoke]

He does, but sadly he had a family bereavement November 16th he posted this status update

Oh im so sorry for your loss i lost my Dad to three lots of different cancer .Its been 2years now and its hard just you and your mum be there for each other and just know that hes looking down on you both.

[legritter]

Well the burning question now is how much Longerrrrr will we see a constant stream of abuse being thrown at us from across the Atlantic and a troublesome high Laughing at us from central and eastern Europe .I suppose it depends on what lights your Candle whether you want to see a pressure change and to what degree .So far today looking at the models is certainly Groundhog day But we do have a few signs of perhaps some higher pressure trying to set up shop over the Arctic.And some colder air being draged in behind some of the Atlantic Lows and troughs .we can only Wait and just hope with 9 weeks of Winter left that us Coldies will be rewarded eventually .Eyes down for the Evening runs and STellas at the ready .

[Summer Sun]

GFS ensemble takes the low down to 930mb for a time early on Tuesday

 

[nick sussex]

Although the GFS operational run was still underwhelming from a cold perspective the GEFS does show more variation at T240hrs, it might not come to anything but given how resolute the ensembles have been for a rinse and repeat scenario there are some options there which look a bit more promising.

[IDO]

The 12z Control is the reverse of the Op, with the Greenland Heights diverting the flow south and allowing the low heights towards the UK to lose the flow and sink SE:

 

 

 

It's only a transient block, the flow from the Canadian vortex returns in due course. A lot cooler and more potential here. This looks like the other extreme.

 

GEM at T240:    

 

Poor for cold.

[Mucka]

GFS control run is not untypical of the ensemble output

 

 

The problem we have is the powerful PV overriding that signal.

The fact that blocking features fairly prominently in the first week January is affirmation for me that conditions will be more favourable end of Dec early Jan but we will need some help from the strat probably.

TWT of course.

Edited December 20, 2013 by Mucka

[Summer Sun]

GEM has Tuesdays low at 950mb

 

 

By Wednesday its still 950mb

 

 

By Thursday it starts to ease

 

 

One to keep an eye on for the south

 

 

We end with mild south westerlies