Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[alijoe]

Merry xmas. Have had many a giggle at all the arguments on here about the weather, but really enjoy everyones take on it too. Hope us coldies have something to cheer about in 2014.

[Iceni]

Here's to a snowy and cold new year!!

 

Freeeeezing winter, then a boiling hot summer. I think I'm in the wrong country for that though. Happy Christmas and a better new year... this one's been horrible (personally - No.13 strikes again).

[TSNWK]

Just taken a quick flick through the 00z GFS and UKMO, my take is that the Gfs is flatter in high res, new year low pressure is north of Scotland and drifts northwards, letting in westerlys for a couple of days. Low res has a couple of northerlÅ·s that topple. Plenty of heights over the polar region but on this occasion we do not benefit as much as yesterday's 12z if it is cold your looking for.

UKMO at first sight looks a tad more amplified than yesterday's 12z, but it was a flaty yesterday so not hard, unsure of where it would go after 144, to my untrained eye there is a reasonable amount of energy heading south east between 120 and 144 and if it continued then the 168 chart would have looked nice, but maybe I have just misread.

In summary the runs are not the Christmas crackers I was hoping to unwrap this morning, but a bit better than unwrapping a pair of grey socks.

I wish you all a Merry and happy Christmas.

cheers

ECM. Not without interest this morning. Looked like the UKMO from 120 to 144 then sent the low east at 168 so that it is sitting over Scotland. at 192 & 216 some energy is ejected southeast fom this low and it looks reasonable. ECM 240 looks ok, with some potential, I wonder if that low out to west is going under. I say that because it certainty looked like it was from 216 to 240. I actually thought ECM Was the best of the bunch this morning.

Edited December 25, 2013 by TSNWK

[Jason T]

Sincere Merry Christmas to you all. Enjoy your day and hopefully by later tonight we can join the pub run with a few.  

[That ECM]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7396/ECH1-240_xxt6.GIF

Seen worse. Lots of potential, first true undercut on the way?

Have a good one one and all.

[Polar Maritime]

Merry Christmas all, the last few frames of the ECMWF look interesting this morning let's hope this trend continues ! 

 

 

Edited December 25, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

I hope charts like these are a sign of things to come during early 2014, the Gfs 00z op run shows the jet tilting more towards nw / se later in FI which would bode well for increasingly cold and wintry weather as we head towards mid Jan..Merry Christmas to everyone, have a great day, and spare a thought for those who are flooded out in the southeast..stay safe guys

Edited December 25, 2013 by Frosty.

[SMU]

You need some evidence to back that up.

Not really required- you only need to follow matt hugos posts around them last 2 years to show they would often change at a moments notice.Also the met office monthly outlook changing on a frequent basis backs that upIts worse, just like the CFS when there are marginal blocking conditions predicted -Not saying its awful but it needs to be put into context to what its actually used for-S

[Duane S.]

Happy Xmas everyone. Sat here as hail batters the house and my 10 year old is somehow still sleeping!

 

Very impressed by the ECM this Xmas morning.

 

Look at the Arctic ridging here, it will heavily influence events to follow if that verifies

 

Trough disruption aplenty caused by that ridge and lows are forced on a much more southerly track 

 

We end up with this. A very much "what happens next?" setup. A few possibilities but it doesn't take an expert to see one of those paths will lead to a cold and snowy outcome for many of us a few days on.

Edited December 25, 2013 by s4lancia

[IDO]

Hi

 

Happy Christmas.

 

No change this morning. The GEFS show no clear trend, with many scenarios on the table by the end of FI including cold MLB, cool MLB, quasi HLB and a few zonal. 

 

Just For Fun at T384:

 

  

 

   

 

   

 

 

Not much clarity amongst the members but lots of potential. The same goes with the ECM, it is now showing a higher propensity to amplify though I wait to see if its current output is viable, eg the control run on 10 Jan has part of the PV heading towards Cuba:  We may be heading for some of the infamous ECM over amplified runs in the next few days.

 

Of course anything cold is 10+ days away well into FI, so medium term we are still stuck in this zonal flow. However confidence is growing that this horrible pattern should end soon and thus not write more than a month off our Winter.

 

[itsnowjoke]

MERRY CHRISTMAS TO YOU ALL HAVE A GOOD ONE AND BE SAFE .

[A.J]

Merry Christmas to all model thread contributors/watchers

 

The only problem is that I should really delete my own post for being off topic..........

 

...Oh what the hell, it's Christmas!   

[dec10snow]

To all you guys looking at the models this morning, STOP!

ITS CHRISTMAS GUYS!

Have a great day, hopefully with your families etc... Enjoy it guys

[Gibby]

Good morning and a very Merry Christmas to you all. Here is the latest look at the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday December 25th 2013.

 

All models show a slightly showery SW flow across the UK with most inland places away from windward coasts having a dry Christmas Day with showers heavy and wintry near mostly Southern and Western Coasts and over Scotland. Pressure continues to rise gently tonight and for a time tomorrow but many places will be dry and bright. Later tomorrow a new Low is shown to approach NW Britain deepening rapidly and giving rise to a repeat of the wind and rain of Monday, come Friday with severe gales and heavy rain making a return to all areas before clearer showery conditions arrive in the West at the end of the day. The weekend then stays unsettled and windy with showers and sunny intervals and chilly weather with some wintry showers and gales slowly decreasing through the weekend. By the end of Sunday yet another Low pressure is shown to approach from the West.

 

GFS then shows a wet and windy start to next week as the next Low anchors up to the NW with SW winds with gales in exposure bring further rain and showers NE across all areas up to the New Year. Then the first week and a bit of 2014 continue to be very changeable and sometimes wet as further Low pressure crosses East to the North of the UK with rain and showers at times with the chance of some sleet or snow at times on the hills of the North especially later.

 

UKMO this morning shows deep Low pressure centred three to four hundred miles to the West of Ireland with a South or SW flow carrying a trough NE across the UK with rain at times for all though at this stage abnormally strong winds may not be an issue.

 

GEM shows a continuation of the fast moving Low pressure systems crossing the Atlantic and to the North of the UK with strong and locally gale force winds for much of the time continuing to carry spells of rain followed by showers in average temperatures and restricting any snowfall to the hills and mountains of the North.

 

NAVGEM is very similar with no let up in the sometimes wet and windy weather a week from now.

 

ECM keeps things very unsettled with a deep trough over the UK later in it's run showing very little signs of releasing it's grip. It does suck in rather colder air down across the UK from the NW which would turn some of the outbreaks of rain and showers to a more wintry mix especially over the hills from a weeks time.

 

The GFS Ensembles show very little sign of any pattern change anytime soon as the Atlantic train is allowed to continue it's current progression aided by a powerful Jet Stream and huge temperature contrasts over the other side of the Atlantic. High pressure may play a bigger role between the Low's offering some brief respite in the South for a day or two on occasion but overall the suggestion from the pack remains an unsettled one in average temperatures.

 

The Jet Stream remains it's undulating sine wave pattern across or just South of the UK spawning deep Low pressure areas crossing the Atlantic for some time to come. There is little overall sign of a significant enough change in this pattern to indicate any pattern change within the time frame of this morning's output

.

In Summary it all looks more of the same this morning. All models show little if any sign of relenting from the often wet pattern of rain followed by showers as each successive Low crosses over. Thankfully the risk of damaging winds look less likely though winds will remain lively and gale force at times. Temperatures look like holding close to average throughout with just a few brief colder incursions shown from the NW on occasion when temperatures fall just a little below average supporting snow on Northern hills. Equally though there may be some milder days in the South as mild sectors pass through. All in all though the models have provided us with a very standard mobile Atlantic based outlook this Christmas morning. So my best advice is take a break from the models today and have a very merry Christmas with all your nearest and dearest.

[mcweather]

Merry Christmas model watchers, some sleet in the heavy showers here this  morning so technically a white christmas. lol

[The PIT]

Err nope Technically not a white xmas sorry mcweather. If it was I try and get the ground frost included.

Anyway a lull in blustery conditions. Not for long though. Nothing much changed since last time I looked the predominately mild windy weather to continue. Slightly less energy out there? Odd cold day thrown in with the normal tease in deep FI to wind people up whoa re looking for the deep freeze. The strong vortex holding on there like a boxer used to go 15 rounds. Second thoughts it doesn't look predominately mild more just below average.

Edited December 25, 2013 by The PIT

[Captain Shortwave]

Morning all.

I guess if people were choosing what days over the coming week that were going to be more settled then it probably would've been today and tomorrow. So at least we can be thankful for a brief lull whilst we loaf around full of food and alcohol 

Not much joy from the models this morning, except the ECM day 10 teaser. The low on Friday if anything has been squeezed a little bit more giving stronger winds from central Scotland southwards. 

Have a great day everyone, be merry, enjoy the food/presents and company, and heck even the weather. Nothing better than a walk on a clear sunny day

[cooling climate]

A very MERRY CHRISTMAS to everyone on Netweather have a great

day.

[P-M]

Just want to say this is by far the best weather forum on the net.  All of the posters with experience and not so much experience together make this quite addictive at times.

 

Thanks to everyone who takes time to post in this thread I have learned a lot over the years - MERRY CHRISTMAS everyone!

[Machu Picchu]

A very Happy Christmas to all you awesome weather geeks and a big thankyou to the fantastic Netweather site and all the members input

for helping noobs like me understand (sort of) and educate ourselves.

Santa got me a new weather station so i'm now retreating to the shed to play with it

[hooch5]

 My First post in 2 years of following this fantastic forum, Happy Christmas guys ( and girls) keep up the great informative model watching. Cracking place to be.

[syed2878]

@forecaster. Regarding the ecmf32 day outputs since october it was showing northern blocking going by mat h tweets how many of those outputs came to fruition? Can u give us any evidence? As for this mornings ecmf i hope it's not leading us up the garden path. Have a good day peeps and enjoy the day and spaire a thot for those who have been affected by the storms.

[Joe Levy]

Merry Christmas everyone! It just wouldn't be Christmas without model watching on Netweather!

[Jason M]

Looking through the charts this morning more of the same really.

For those looking for something seasonal I recommend GEFS pert 1 post 300 hours. Hurry though as it will be gone soon.

I think the way forward will not be known until the weekend when the next big storm is settled on.

Happy Xmas all.

[Mark Bayley]

Merry Christmas all! Someone needs to give the 6z a kick