South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 08/12/13

[Coast]

So, for those of us not brave enough to go into the MOD thread and analyse the various members thoughts and forecasts, let me summarise the latest posts here:

 

Mild generally in a lot of locations but also cold in many areas, often at the same time but rarely across the whole UK where it will be variable for some considerable period, or shorter if you take the latest output from any main models and some of the lesser models  - but not those we don't like, or those that we discount occasionally for sometimes (or always) being wrong......

 

[Steve C]

So, for those of us not brave enough to go into the MOD thread and analyse the various members thoughts and forecasts, let me summarise the latest posts here:

 

Mild generally in a lot of locations but also cold in many areas, often at the same time but rarely across the whole UK where it will be variable for some considerable period, or shorter if you take the latest output from any main models and some of the lesser models  - but not those we don't like, or those that we discount occasionally for sometimes (or always) being wrong......

 

Totally agree with this. The quality of posting in there is really poor at the moment, imho. I agreed with the John Holmes posting about bias.

 

Not a slight on anyone who posts in this thread. Tamara, for instance, makes postings of uniformly high quality there.

[Coast]

I should add that looking towards Christmas day itself;

 

Indications are coming through that it's highly unlikely that there will be any snow across the UK, except in favoured locations and places where snow is more predisposed to fall during these type of events and that includes Fantasy Island and surrounding Counties mostly on high ground (at or above knee height) where it is promising, but should be treated with caution at this stage (or subsequent stages).

 

Any snow that does fall will be white and will induce significant meltdown in threads quite quickly, but only in the areas mentioned above and not where it isn't showing on any current model output (excluding those that fail to predict snow most of the time - restrictions and terms apply). These forecasts and conclusions will be updated on Boxing day and subsequent holidays, but not when the BBC are showing re-runs of Morecambe and Wise's Christmas specials.

 

[Steve C]

Actually I don't really mind bias - if someone wants to post a perturbation showing something extreme, then fair enough, as long as it's pointed out as being like that.

 

Things I don't like are when someone posts a chart and interprets it in a misleading fashion, often to their weather preference and almost the worst of all (apart from personal insults) is when someone says something like 'to all those who posted a few days ago, saying (whatever) this shows you how wrong you were!' - even if the event showing is still to happen. I would almost be happier if they were to put 'ner, ner, ner, ner, ner!' at the end - at least their childishness would be obvious!

[Steve C]

I wonder when this thread will split between north and south of the Thames (or thereabouts)? I'll go for mid / late January (about 20th)...

 

If it doesn't split this winter, it'll mean a lot of very fraught people on the Netweather site!  

Edited December 12, 2013 by Steve C

[JennyJane1]

seems there has been an alert issued for gales next weekend, looks to only affect the north but maybe there was something in those headlines then about bad weather next week.

[Snowangel-MK]

Afternoon all...I seem to have missed the morning (and Lovejoy    ) ....was it foggy ?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Steve C]

seems there has been an alert issued for gales next weekend, looks to only affect the north but maybe there was something in those headlines then about bad weather next week.

Well, the 6 o'clock GFS run looks unsettled / disturbed throughout its run, after today.

 

For instance here are a couple of charts (from next Thursday and Christmas day) and while these can't be taken to literally, this far out, they scream of the potential for something nasty to happen to me. Probably nothing like the sensational headlines we see, but to be borne in mind.  I, for one, hope things change.

 

[Steve C]

Afternoon all...I seem to have missed the morning (and Lovejoy    ) ....was it foggy ?

 

559847_10152048592654162_1478598320_n.jpg

Lovejoy was about as memorable as, well, Lovejoy! I suppose it is nice to have spotted it, but it's just a faint fuzzy blob in my binoculars.

 

No real fog here - light mist patches earlier. Is it foggy with you, or a euphemism?

[Snowangel-MK]

Lovejoy was about as memorable as, well, Lovejoy! I suppose it is nice to have spotted it, but it's just a faint fuzzy blob in my binoculars.

 

No real fog here - light mist patches earlier. Is it foggy with you, or a euphemism?

 

I don't think I missed much then did I .....seemed a bit hazy when I first looked out but that may have just been my eyes...

 

 

 

 

anyway...keeping mildly on topic and weather related at all times (not) ....

 

 

Edited December 12, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[Tamara]

Well, the 6 o'clock GFS run looks unsettled / disturbed throughout its run, after today.

 

For instance here are a couple of charts (from next Thursday and Christmas day) and while these can't be taken to literally, this far out, they scream of the potential for something nasty to happen to me. Probably nothing like the sensational headlines we see, but to be borne in mind.  I, for one, hope things change.

 

GFS 19-12.pngGFS Xmas.png

The ECM operational is quite an outlier amongst the London ensembles for windspeeds next Thursday atm. Still needs to be watched on future outputs though

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-ff-london.gif

 

Thanks for your very kind comment btw Steve

Edited December 12, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Reefseeker]

The fog is lifting now in Uxbridge, giving way to that hazy pinky orangey hue to everything with a slight mist across the distance; was starting to feel that our fog-bound locale was competing to be a setting for a horror film.

[Coast]

Meh....

 

The epitome of 'no-weather' out there this lunchtime with the so-so temperature meaning it's too warm for a fleece. but too cold for just a polo shirt. It's damp as a damp thing but there's no precipitation, the sky is cloudy but there are small patches of blue, miles away  - but the sun just can't break through the cloud here, it is hinting at it's presence though. When will we get some real stuff?

 

[HammerJack]

Afternoon all. Well it's been really mild here for the past three days.... Except for the three mornings and early afternoons where we have had dense freezing fog and great morning frosts and ice. So to call this weather mild hummmmm I don't think so haha.

I've loved the last few days. If I can't have gale force NE / Ely winds and constant blizzards and a bit of thunder snow thrown in for good measure, then the last few days have been perfect winter weather for me. :-)

Great post Reef, and thanks for the update on the Comet SteveC.

I'm off now to get ready for my messy Christmas works party tonight.... I think tomorrow's school run is gonna be painful.

[Steve C]

Yet another very good sunset seems likely here... Most of the ingredients in place.

[Keraunic]

Had a lovely sunset here. Deep gold, orange, heather and blues. Beautiful. Hope its a clear night. I love star watching and I have the Star Walk app on my Ipad so I can line up the constellations etc.

[Jax]

Afternoon/Evening all

 

A quieter day today here, which was handy as I needed to crack on coding SQL for some reports, as such it was ahead down day so not really seen much in the way of any weather.  Seems milder than of late when I came home a short time ago, dry and a smattering of cloud with just a light breeze.

 

Fog clear last night and never came back (result!).

[Steve C]

It's ended up being more misty and damp than last evening. No chance of me comet spotting tonight, as there's a bank of what looks like cirrostratus to the west. I suspect early Saturday morning (before 6:15) might be the next good chance in this region.

Edited December 12, 2013 by Steve C

[Coast]

It's ended up being more misty and damp than last evening. No chance of me comet spotting tonight, as there's a bank of what looks like cirrostratus to the west. I suspect early Saturday morning (before 6:15) might be the next good chance in this region.

 

Damp here too and dark enough, but as you say Steve too cloudy for any meaningful sky-watching. I might have to gaze into the bottom of a cut glass tumbler tonight instead....

[Captain Shortwave]

Evening all, not as nice a day today as yesterday. Thick fog and low cloud rolled in for most of the morning though the afternoon was better.

CFS time

Happy wetmass 

[RUSH]

A friend of mine who also works up London (in a very tall building!) has posted these pictures of earlier today.  I particularly like the one of Canary Whalf in the distance, even if it isn't as clear as the first picture:

 

 

wow ,like both on them nice

[Jax]

I might have to gaze into the bottom of a cut glass tumbler tonight instead....

why wait?

[Bluebreezer54]

The last few days here have wandered aimlessly between a mix of fog, mist, and low cloud. Utterly depressing....I hope the Atlantic can blast this muck away this weekend.

[Coast]

why wait?

 

A small matter of an hours drive South? 

 

[Jax]

A small matter of an hours drive South? 

 

Be fine, not like it is nearly christm...

 

 

....then again, best you hold off.