Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[Stuie]

well just  been watching fox news  on there over  the  pond  going  back in to the  deep freeze  will be as  cold  as  December  there  we  all know what happened  last  time it  didn't  stop raining  over  here  for  weeks!!!

On that side of the pond especially, MJO going into phase 8 then 1 so something is going to change.

[shaky]

reminds me of March 1995 following the wet winter then....pattern carried on relentlessly for the first part of march with no let up and produced this:

 

 

which delieverd the best snow of "winter" midlands north.

 

Not too disimilar to what we're seeing now, although uppers abit cooler then.

any idea what the snowfall totals were that day!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Friday looking horrendously wet, 4 years exactly since Xynthia (Sunday's low)

[snow freak]

Okay winter you can now throw in the towel and go away.  you've had a long enough run this year and we're all fed up with you now.

[Weather-history]

This was the last occasion that a centre of high pressure sat over some part of the UK, 12 weeks ago

And there is no sign in the near future.

[ANYWEATHER]

The warmish weather have driven my babies gouslings etc to mate , the noisy buggers

[etched Chaos]

Okay winter you can now throw in the towel and go away.  you've had a long enough run this year and we're all fed up with you now.

Winter never even made the first bell, it's been down for the count since Dec 1st.

[snow freak]

2013/14 the year with no winter.

[March Blizzard]

Reading the main model thread I get the impression "FI" is now 2-3 weeks...High pressure and 20C for the first half of March is nailed on, apparently.

[Milhouse]

The models have just realized its Spring and are showing some rather pleasant conditions developing. Brisk southwesterlies wouldnt be totally dry but temperatures would soar to mid teens it would guess. High pressure over the UK wouldnt be as warm but in any sunshine it would feel like Spring has most definately sprung.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

It's certainly looking like a high pressure lover's dream for the 2nd week of March which is great as I am taking a family holiday that week. 20C would do nicely but I'd settle for a week of 14-17C highs and little or no rain and I am sure would most of the UK population! Plus I predicted 8C in the March CET competition so I would need some high maximums during that period of March to win that one.

Edited February 28, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Thundery wintry showers]

The GFS outputs would certainly give warm dry sunny conditions over most of the country but the high pressure ridging on the UKMO and ECMWF outputs is rather "flatter" with low pressure systems running over the top- I'd expect a NW-SE split from that kind of setup with rather more cloud and breeze in most parts of the country.

[March Blizzard]

It seems although high pressure builds with each run, it goes less east and slightly north. If this trend keeps going a northerly flow and greens high may come quicker than currently progged.

Fingers crossed (but not holding my breath). I'm not interested in "warmth" so early in the year - save the "summer" charts for a more appropriate time of year. The wintry window is still open for a good few weeks yet, there will be plenty of time for warmth after that.The general consensus is that the first 10 days or so (of March) will be mild, perhaps followed by a cooler second half - sounds kinda familiar, that...

[Sky Full]

For what it's worth, I just want to forget about the no-show winter of 2013/4 now and hope we get a long, warm and dry spring. We have enough water in the ground to supply this country even if it doesn't rain for six months so let's have a few weeks of sunny growing conditions and let the ground dry out a bit. I missed the snow as much as anyone but this is not the time to be hoping for an arctic blast - we want the crops to recover, animals to feed outside again, and people to be cheered up by warm winds and sun. Surely we now want the birds to be singing, the trees to get their leaves back and all the daffs out by the end of the month?

Let's box up this winter and bury it!

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Keep the faith folks. We are only 3 weeks away from nationwide 18C t-shirt weather and I will pull out my usual prediction we are now heading into a prolonged dry spell after all the wet weather.

Frosty, you might have to be putting on your warm weather high pressure hat if these charts continue to develop!

Edited March 1, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[conor123]

Perked up majorly taking a look at the charts for the first time in a while this morning and seeing a lovely potentially long spell of exceptionally mild & sunny high pressure.

After the worst winter in my living memory for snow/cold i'll happily take the 06z and run with it, so long as we don't get another April 2012/2013 follow it!!!

[mcweather]

That would appear to be it for winter here in the far south, unless we get a potent wintry blast in the spring ( which often happens after completely mild winters.

 

Final rainfall total for winter at my weather station was  658mm (26.32 inches!!)

 

If one adds in October and November as well the total is 872mm ( 34.88 inches)

 

The 1981-2010  average annual rainfall for Dorset is 924mm ( 36.96 inches)

 

So I have recorded almost a years worth of rain since October 1st 2013.

[Tony27]

Fingers crossed (but not holding my breath). I'm not interested in "warmth" so early in the year - save the "summer" charts for a more appropriate time of year. The wintry window is still open for a good few weeks yet, there will be plenty of time for warmth after that.The general consensus is that the first 10 days or so (of March) will be mild, perhaps followed by a cooler second half - sounds kinda familiar, that...

i can't get excited about a spell of high pressure in early march when we have the next 6-7 months for warm weather, i bet people will get bored of high pressure if it lasts for a few weeks and by then it will still only be april, just because the calendar has turned to march today don't mean im ready for warmer weather, plenty of time for that,  as it goes though the GFS 12z looks more unsettled for later on next week

Edited March 1, 2014 by Tony27

[March Blizzard]

i can't get excited about a spell of high pressure in early march when we have the next 6-7 months for warm weather, i bet people will get bored of high pressure if it lasts for a few weeks and by then it will still only be april, just because the calendar has turned to march today don't mean im ready for warmer weather, plenty of time for that, as it goes though the GFS 12z looks more unsettled for later on next week

Don't get me wrong, I'm not against March 2012 conditions per se, I'd just much rather have March 2013 conditions! I'm trying to take comfort in that the start of this month is looking eerily similar to last March; Fairly mild with a bit of high pressure and large diurnal ranges...Lots of talk of a potential 2012 repeat, but we shouldn't ignore the possibility of 2013 type conditions either. Edited March 1, 2014 by March Blizzard

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

i can't get excited about a spell of high pressure in early march when we have the next 6-7 months for warm weather, i bet people will get bored of high pressure if it lasts for a few weeks and by then it will still only be april, just because the calendar has turned to march today don't mean im ready for warmer weather, plenty of time for that, as it goes though the GFS 12z looks more unsettled for later on next week

I've been waiting for high pressure centred over the UK since Dec 9 2013. I'll take high pressure and blue skies any time of the year. This winter can do one as far as I am concerned.I was looking forward to Winter from late summer last year with my winter hat on. Only it now has mothballs.I'll be honest though. I prefer Summer Sun like charts than Steve Murr ones! Edited March 1, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Thundery wintry showers]

At this time of year we often get the question, "Do we want continued snowy weather or warm sunny weather?" but for me the "either or" element of the question is irrelevant as I invariably want a significant amount of both! Arctic incursions during the spring months are increasingly likely to see homegrown convection and, if it is cold enough and/or the convection is potent enough we can get spectacular hail/snow shafts from the cumulonimbus cells.

However, continental air is increasingly a different matter as the North Sea is less warm relative to the land masses- during last spring for instance, I only recall one instance (11-13 March) when we had that scenario, with a combination of frontal snow and dry anticyclonic/easterly type weather being the norm.

[Tony27]

I've been waiting for high pressure centred over the UK since Dec 9 2013. I'll take high pressure and blue skies any time of the year. This winter can do one as far as I am concerned.I was looking forward to Winter from late summer last year with my winter hat on. Only it now has mothballs.I'll be honest though. I prefer Summer Sun like charts than Steve Murr ones!

that's only 3 months, i've been waiting for 14 months to see snow, and i may have to wait another 9-10 months now, mildies don't realize how lucky they have it, im not a complete coldie but i would just rather have warm weather form april till september, or i would prefer to have a cold first half to march and warm second half rather than the other way round which might happen, by mid/late march it might be too late for proper snow if the synoptics aren't very good, a shame to waste early march with high pressure over us when we have many months for it, it will be annoying if april is chilly but not cold enough for snow

Edited March 1, 2014 by Tony27

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I prefer steve murr charts, Gavin D just posts low pressure and rain as a rain lover

 

GFS seems to suggest no cold until at least 20th March, may not see anymore snow now until Feb/Mar '15

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

that's only 3 months, i've been waiting for 14 months to see snow, and i may have to wait another 9-10 months now, mildies don't realize how lucky they have it, im not a complete coldie but i would just rather have warm weather form april till september, or i would prefer to have a cold first half to march and warm second rather than the other way round which might happen, by mid march it might be too late for proper snow if the synoptics are good enough, a shame to waste early march with high pressure over us when we have many months for it

True. I love snow too. During the last 5-6 winters I sometimes couldn't sleep at night watching the lamppost for the first flurries. But I guess after this rubbish winter having read the model thread every day and numerous false alarms, I just want my spring fix earlier than you. If we had a March 2013 snowfest I would get pretty excited too but I prefer March 2012 low 20s type weather. Either cold or warm is good but not inbetween. Edited March 1, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[I remember Atlantic 252]

True. I love snow too. During the last 5-6 winters I sometimes can't sleep at night watching the lamppost for the first flurries. But I guess I just want my spring fix earlier than you. If we had a March 2013 snowfest I would get pretty excited too but I prefer March 2012 low 20s temps.

 

March '14 will not be a repeat of '12 0r '13. It will be dominated by the Atlantic, rain and wind most days and that ECM 12Z run is way off, GFS 12Z more realistic

Edited March 1, 2014 by IrememberAtlantic252