Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[snow freak]

maybe we shouldn't give up hope then looking at the winter of 1963 as it was mild for most of December too until the freeze started after Christmas Day.  Bit fed up with all this non descipt gloomy weather at the moment though.  Although did see the most amazing sunrise this morning on the way into work.  Huge bright orange ball just above the horizon which looked more like a newly discovered planet had appeared rather than the sun.  It looked so near too.  Stunning.

[Bobby]

Fairly typical December weather showing on the models. It is the most zonal month of all and the wettest month as well (at least in the West). With 2 months of Winter to come nobody should be despondent even if the rest of December is write off for cold which looks like it may well be.

 

I think December 2009/2010 has skewed people's expectations somewhat? These were exceptional spells of weather (Dec 2010 especially freakish), only going to be setting yourself up dissapointment expecting anything like that each time winter starts! If December and January are dominated by raging zonal weather and Bartletts and February is very cold and snowy with lots of blocking that will gp down as a very good winter historically! We do live in the British Isles after all.

[Hotspur62]

Very true Bobby.Some people do tend to forget that we are surrounded by water that doesn't help us.I wish sometimes the BI was geographically where Sweden is but we're not so we are at a disadvantage where we are.However,if December turns out to be average and the first half of Jan is likewise then so be it,we can't change it.I am pretty sure we will get one good dollop of snow before mid march and then most will be happy!!

[Richard2901]

it amazes me why people get so surprised if we have double figure temps in winter, yes 10c 11c is above normal technically, but temps of 10c 11c are very normal for this country to have in winter, and 10c is closer to the winter average than 0c lets not forget, i of course hope for snow and moan a bit when the weather is mild and the charts look poor for cold, but deep down i now this sort of weather we are having right now is far more common than snow and ice days esp for my location

 

It's definitely not more common than snow for my location, or even ice days despite the latter being extremely rare. Double figures during the day are not unusual but at night just totally unacceptable. It was 13C during the night earlier this week and we are suffering night after night of June minima with another execrable 9C min forecast tonight. Coupled with the high cloud amounts and pathetically low diurnal range this is a horrific spell of weather 

 

It hasn't gone below 6C since just before midnight on Saturday night so we are having to endure nights milder than what the days should be at this time of year. We didn't even get this in 1988/89, not remotely. 3-4C was typical then and only four mins were as high as 6C during the whole of December 1988, just one of which was as high as 7C.

 

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Aberdeen_Dyce/12-1988/30910.htm

 

Similar story for the exceptionally mild Decembers of 1974 and 1975

 

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Aberdeen_Dyce/12-1974/30910.htm

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Aberdeen_Dyce/12-1975/30910.htm

 

December 1983 had 3 consecutive nights above 7C http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Aberdeen_Dyce/12-1983/30910.htm but even that's nothing compared to what you get now. With no let up in the dross we could easily complete a full week without dropping below 6C 

 

You just didn't get these protracted periods of ridiculously high minima and low diurnal ranges in the past. It's an entirely recent phenomenon

 

I just hope this can turn out like December 2000 which saw a turn around after mid-month following a ghastly first half. The thought of a third successive festive fortnight devoid of snow or even frost is not appealing in the slightest. 

Edited December 10, 2013 by Richard2901

[Peter H]

Most of the winters in the 60's were pretty cold. 68/69 was another good example. The early 80's also had a long run of cold snowy winters. December 81 was particularly cold and this continued on into Jan/February.

The only winter to have come close in recent years has been 2009/10. December 2010 was quite exceptional, but it ended abruptly on Boxing Day.Had last March's set up happened in mid January it really would have been very good indeed for snow. It was quite strange around here as we had very little snow (sea level), yet, places only a couple of hundred feet ASL had quite a few feet of snow which lasted for several weeks.

The winter of 1947 didn't start until late January, so there's always hope until then, but if nothing happens by early February then you may as well right it off.

Still, you never know but it certainly doesn't look good up until the end of December.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Galatasary v juventus game has been called off becase of snow in turkey lol

[Machu Picchu]

A little winter fix this morning, the fields have a white tint and the windscreens are lightly frosted, it got down to 0.4C in the night and Monday night dropped to 2.8C, both nice clear nights.

Its bloody typical, the clearest nights for setting up the telescope are always when im working nights, i guarantee the weekend will be cloudy

[sunnijim]

pretty much what i saw in the charts last week,only to be told my reading of the charts were skewed.We have had the continental influence here all week,glorious sunny days (away from persistant freezing fog) and cold frosty nights..

[JOPRO]

Usual rubbish in the mod thred this morning, mild lovers slapping each other on the back and giving out big high fives. Just like boom and bust winters over and we all know what happen then.....!

[Tony27]

im so bored on these long winter nights as there are not even any good charts to look at or discuss, in summer im always out anyway and don't always look at the charts, i might go to bed zzzzzzzzzzzz hang on its only 5pm

Edited December 11, 2013 by Tony27

[cheese]

Down to -1C this morning so colder than expected. Also a chilly day with a max of 5C.

[Gord]

Things could be so much worse.

 

Take a look at the current maps of North America showing the lying snow. Then think about what it must be like in that strip that goes from mid Missouri, through mid Illinois and north Indiana to the tip of northwest Ohio. I would rather be here thousands of miles away from any snow then there!

[conor123]

The mild was fine over the weekend and Monday as the sun actually came out, but it's now returned to the god awful slop of sunless days with plenty of grim, drizzly weather for the next few days...weeks.

Edited December 11, 2013 by conor123

[Peter H]

Looks like it's going to turn very unsettled and quite cool (rather than cold) over the Christmas period with the Atlantic breaking through. Maybe a little snow over northern hills and in Scotland ????

Still, not just as bad as it was.

Here in Northern Ireland north westerlies can bring quite a bit of snow to these parts.

[Captain Shortwave]

Lovely day today, frost and fog to start and then bags of sunshine. The vast differences a wind from the south makes compared to a west or south westerly.

I really hope the Atlantic doesn't churn up any more nasty storms. Given most of my family live on the east coast I don't really want another repeat of last week

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Who's "nicked" our snow?  The Middle East!  Isn't it meant to be about 18C at this time of the year there?  It's only 4C in Amman tomorrow!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25339394

[Nights King]

This weather is so darn boring   The autumn/winter clock ticks on and still not a snow day in sight.

 

I really hope we are not looking at a 90's winter with only a couple of brief snow days all winter. 

[Blizzardof82]

This time last week it was all talk of sceuro highs and bartletts with benign weather for the foreseeable and now we have completely different weather forecast with storms on the horizon.

 

A week is a long time in weather forecasting and I am hoping this pattern change will lead to some better output from the models and the weather itself over the next couple of weeks.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Why do all weather forecasters think we all like mild weather.In the forecasts on telly they always say "its going to be mild" with smiles on there face like were all happy

[Tony27]

sadly most of joe public hate snow and cold so saying it is going to be mild is "good news" apparently, what worries me more is that some forcasters hate snow as well and prefer this bog standard mild crap just like some of the mild lovers on here, bring back rob mcelwee

[chubbyfan]

sadly most of joe public hate snow and cold so saying it is going to be mild is "good news" apparently, what worries me more is that some forcasters hate snow as well and prefer this bog standard mild crap just like some of the mild lovers on here, bring back rob mcelwee

where is good old rob mcelwee ??..

 

he vanished off the telly a while ago.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

where is good old rob mcelwee ??..

 

he vanished off the telly a while ago.

I think he's been taken by the black hole shown on 240 hrs GEM lol

[R.P. McMurphy]

Well there is hope!

 

http://primemag.me/photos-snow-covers-areas-cairo-suez-alexandria/

[Gaz1985]

where is good old rob mcelwee ??..

 

he vanished off the telly a while ago.

 

The BBC got rid of him - he wasn't PC enough lol 

[Summer Sun]

where is good old rob mcelwee ??..

 

he vanished off the telly a while ago.

 

Out of the 3 they got rid of 2 are back on our TV screen's again so he may return one day

 

The two which have returned are Tomasz Schafernaker and Philip Avery