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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14


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I rather think the intention is to provide some analysis and explanation of what is happening in the model output and possibilities ahead, and not making cast iron predictions. Any predictions that have been made being centred around how the NH pattern may evolve - and not using an oracle to predict a freeze or other definitive prediction of weather type. I'm not just talking about me here, but many many other members of this forum who try to do such analysis. And very well they do it too imo.

 

As for the METO, well they are professionals with more information to hand than members of this forum (or 'soothsayers' as you describe them/us) who are simply trying to provide helpful guidance with whatever information is available. No-one here is earning a wage for what they are doing - so therefore they can afford to speculate a lot more.

 

At least people are having a go at reading between the lines - also its a lot to expect of anyone here to follow someone of the depth of knowledge and ability of GP since he left net weather. But Chiono f.e has made an excellent start with a forecast for the winter that has followed proceedings very accurately. A strong vortex was expected - but gauging the amount of strength is something that the METO will struggle with too...

 

 

Can you do better?Posted Image

i never mentioned any person in particular. I really like reading the thoughts of a fair few on here who i deem to be 'expert' in their explanation of possible outcomes and reading the model output, but this forum is also overloaded with 'copy and paste' merchants who believe everything they read on the internet.

Can i do better? Nope, that's why i dont bother. I leave it to the Pros. Unless i have a 'hunch'.

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i never mentioned any person in particular. I really like reading the thoughts of a fair few on here who i deem to be 'expert' in their explanation of possible outcomes and reading the model output, but this forum is also overloaded with 'copy and paste' merchants who believe everything they read on the internet.Can i do better? Nope, that's why i dont bother. I leave it to the Pros. Unless i have a 'hunch'.

 

Yes plenty of "know it alls" on here who know very little and try to bully others when they can't get their own way, this Winter has made a fool out of all of us yet there's still some people who think they've been right all the time even if the opposite is smacking them in the face.

 

And for this reason I only take notice of about 4 posters in the model output thread - the likes of Tamara and John Holmes. I'm certainly not a professional at meteorology nor would I regard myself as excellent at forecasting - I have some wisdom on it but other people have a more in depth knowledge who have been doing it for 50+ years. Then there's others who dislike you just because you like mild weather. Very strange people, it's only the weather. This could be a great forum but there's a sizeable number who let it down. 

Edited by Gaz1985
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A while since we had high pressure over the UK think the spell in early December is one of the longest this winter so far

 

Posted Image

At the time i thought it was a boring spell of weather - oh how i wish it would return asap, with a bit of warmth....of course.
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A while since we had high pressure over the UK think the spell in early December is one of the longest this winter so far

 

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and that shifted hastily onto the continent - without that HP system this winter would have been a complete null and void, it at least in my neck of the woods gave a 'wintry' feel for a few days with early morning mist/fog and some frost, since then yuuccKKKK!!

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Given how bad December was it's unbelievable just how much worse January has turned out. In fact the first week of December had more wintry weather than the rest of the non- winter combined and it was at least dry for the first three weeks of the month.
 
Just beyond a joke how wet and miserable it has been since 23rd December and gets more and more depressing with each day that passes. This week is worse than putrid. The last 10 days were bad enough with SE'lys, 8 hours of sunshine and 59mm of rain Posted Image
 
This week is even more ghastly. Utterly horrific and this was always what was shown in the models. There was never any real cold and snowy weather likely. Just this vile wet, grey easterly rot and the only consolation is that these truly are as dire synoptics as it's possible to get so any change from the current set-up would represent a change for the better.
 
4C at the moment just as it was 4C this afternoon and will likely be 4C all weekPosted Image That's what easterlies bring 95% of the time not a winter wonderland. 
 
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Don't forget they have altitude on their side. Much of the interior is above 500m. Just think how much snow some places in the UK would have had by now on the near-misses if we had more places of that altitude and above.

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Latest EC Monthly runs-up striking positive temp anomalies across all Europe/UK progressively through February after chilly opening gambit, with ensemble means by w/e 26th showing low heights to N/W, (weaker) high to S (Iberia) and SW flow dominating. It's been on the money since early December, so performance through these last few weeks of winter will be very interesting indeed.

Looks like Piers Corbyns February forecast won't be far off the mark if it pans out like that. A thoroughly depressing winter of floods and gales with the only saving grace of spring being around the corner.
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Looks like Piers Corbyns February forecast won't be far off the mark if it pans out like that. A thoroughly depressing winter of floods and gales with the only saving grace of spring being around the corner.

I haven't heard what Piers has indicated...
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I think it's simply a case the jet-stream is winning out this time around - despite a pretty strong block over Scandinavia. Much colder air has also flooded further south over the mainland and into the Balkans region giving quite a few heavy snowfalls and sharp frosts.With a more easterly component expected for at least a couple of days, it will feel pretty raw and much chillier than of late - any transition back to milder weather is unfortunately likely to usher in yet more rain, some sleet and certainly a higher chance of snow with any elevation. Dare I say - rinse and repeat..

Looks like Piers Corbyns February forecast won't be far off the mark if it pans out like that. A thoroughly depressing winter of floods and gales with the only saving grace of spring being around the corner.

Any strat warming will probably mean we get cold spells during march and april thanks to the lag effect, I would like us to salvage something from this mangled train wreck of a winter.
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Any strat warming will probably mean we get cold spells during march and april thanks to the lag effect, I would like us to salvage something from this mangled train wreck of a winter.

The snow in March was okay, but please not another miserable cold spring like last year after that!

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Latest EC Monthly runs-up striking positive temp anomalies across all Europe/UK progressively through February after chilly opening gambit, with ensemble means by w/e 26th showing low heights to N/W, (weaker) high to S (Iberia) and SW flow dominating. It's been on the money since early December, so performance through these last few weeks of winter will be very interesting indeed.

 I imagine there is going to be a lot of nervous parents who have booked up very expensive skiing holidays during the half term...
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It's all a very fine balancing act, any shift either way shall make all the difference - colder air demarcation presently to our east north-east, otherwise north or north-west. We should of course be used to it by now here in the UK, with much uncertainty beyond let's say 7-10 days, writing off Winter at this stage would be premature to say the very least. Any sudden shift is all that's required - more importantly the conditions on the ground will be noticeably different. Plenty to keep weather enthusiasts on their toes yet! :) squelch..

i think your frostys twin brother ;-) Edited by Fozfoster
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Think we can start to look towards spring now. The ec32 update from Ian f is the final straw. Watch the mod thread die a death through feb. Must say it's looking like piers Corbyns forecast for feb will be spot on. Hopefully we will see the rain die out 2nd week of feb and hopefully look forward to a warm spring. Thank god this winter if that's what you can call it is slowly but surely ending.

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