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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14


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Posted
  • Location: South Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny
  • Location: South Cheshire

    I'd like to send you some nasty PMs myself, but unfortunately I don't know what they are. In the meantime I would like to say that your pessimism is beginning to rankle. It's people like you that are ruining our winter.

    That is quite funny.

    Edited by CongletonHeat
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    Posted
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim

    2013/2014 Worst nightmare of a winter!!

     

    Yep, winter 46/47 didn't start until the last week in January but I can't see this one emulating it, unfortunately.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    ecm seems to have been poor all winter the lack of consistency between runs has been a complete load of bull for ages now.

     

    its credibility is dropping through the floor faster and faster its going to end up a cannon fodder model soon.

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    ecm seems to have been poor all winter the lack of consistency between runs has been a complete load of bull for ages now.

     

    its credibility is dropping through the floor faster and faster its going to end up a cannon fodder model soon.

     

    Posted Image

    I think the ecm is just a bit off colour, under the weather..it's still a premier league model.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    ecm seems to have been poor all winter the lack of consistency between runs has been a complete load of bull for ages now.

     

    its credibility is dropping through the floor faster and faster its going to end up a cannon fodder model soon.

     

    Posted Image

    Hold on. The last 4 op runs have all shown that rapidly developing low moving in at the end of next week. It's the track that has varied somewhat.

    So ECM has thus far been consistent with this. UKMO seems to a little bit overall the place, it downgrades the easterly, it blows up the low and now it downgrades the low and ups the easterly again a touch.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Well it's coming guys, Easterly winds are on their way with colder and colder air spreading westwards into the uk from russia / scandinavia..the first wintry week of the winter is ours with ice, snow, frosts and increasing wind chill. Let's just enjoy it while it lasts. :-)

    I feel a week of smileys coming upPosted Image Enjoy mate you deserve it.

     

    EDIT. Unbelievable timing of posts same smiley as well

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl

    Waiting for wintry weather in winter 2013/14 is akin to having sex... It's a painstaking and arduous task that seems to go on and on forever, and just when you think things are going your way, nothing happens.

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    Posted
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey

    Waiting for wintry weather in winter 2013/14 is akin to having sex... It's a painstaking and arduous task that seems to go on and on forever, and just when you think things are going your way, nothing happens.

    Presume you mean " looking "else I'd see a doctor Edited by cobbett
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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    and why not - it is winter !!

     

    that wasnt the issue, its the % of cold lovers in the general populice that is vs the % of coldies on the forums.

     

    I have to say as am unashamed coldie that I often find myself hoping that things will go pear shaped for cold because of the level of rudeness on the model thread by a sizeable crowd, rudeness to anyone who’s not gung-ho for cold, anybody in fact who so much as makes a case for what can go wrong, it is a disgrace. What we have in reality is a lot of people on both sides of the fence who want to rub peoples noses in it when they are right about how synoptics have panned out. The simple fact of the matter is codies out weigh mild fans on the model forum at about 50 - 1 and frankly they use that weight in numbers to bully, there are plenty of people sitting on their high horses slagging others off who themselves are no better than play ground bullies, some people would be advised to look at themselves first before having digs at others.

     

    sir, you have posted the best post ive ever read on here (non forecasting) , if more people had your attitude this site would be a much much better place.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Well it's coming guys, Easterly winds are on their way with colder and colder air spreading westwards into the uk from russia / scandinavia..the first wintry week of the winter is ours with ice, snow, frosts and increasing wind chill. Let's just enjoy it while it lasts. :-)

     

    happy new year karl Posted Image

     

    not sure how you arrive at this conclusion though mate... here are the coldest charts i can find on current outputs, and the airmass has a southern european origin, not a russian one, and the breif winds soon drop out, leaving only some northern areas really cold. to me these charts smack of raw, overcast, dull, days . or was your post an out and out ramp? Posted Image

    post-2797-0-96787100-1390735782_thumb.gi

    post-2797-0-85355500-1390735794_thumb.pn

    Edited by mushymanrob
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Personally feel Frosty has been so frustrated with the winter (as so far many of us have) he's now being a bit deluded, neither can I see where an easterly outbreak is coming from! GFS+ECM look pretty poor post 5+days time, and then back to square one i.e. rain, wind and above seasonal temperatures.

     

    Quite a few 'coldies' could be popping the diazepam in a few days time!

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    Posted
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey

    that wasnt the issue, its the % of cold lovers in the general populice that is vs the % of coldies on the forums.

    Winter weather is associated with cold and hopefully snow and I'd say a large majority would like it cold and dry - Likewise in the summer the thread is normally filled with people looking for warm sunny weather and anyone looking for cool/ wet usually gets a few brickbats thrown at them
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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

    Well according to what the weather presenter said on news24 earlier I'd forget about snow anywhere at the end of this coming week as she mentioned a very short cold snap with mild wet and windy weather spreading in at the end of the week!

    Talk about conflicting signals, that comment certainly doesn't match what some of the models have been showing for the end of the week, unless perhaps some of the models only the uk met get to see are showing something completely different!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Well according to what the weather presenter said on news24 earlier I'd forget about snow anywhere at the end of this coming week as she mentioned a very short cold snap with mild wet and windy weather spreading in at the end of the week!Talk about conflicting signals, that comment certainly doesn't match what some of the models have been showing for the end of the week, unless perhaps some of the models only the uk met get to see are showing something completely different!

     

    Make what you will of that this is how the met see things

     

    UK Outlook for Friday 31 Jan 2014 to Sunday 9 Feb 2014:

     

    Risk of wintry showers over eastern and southeastern parts at first on Friday. Cloudier conditions with rain and hill snow should soon spread eastwards. Rain may be preceded by snow at some lower levels before melting away. Gales likely, especially in the northwest where they may be severe. Clearer conditions with wintry showers should spread in from the west for the weekend. Temperatures will be generally colder than normal with a risk of overnight frost and ice. Drier and brighter conditions are likely for a time on Monday before further spells of wet and often windy weather moves in from the southwest for Tuesday. Thereafter further wet and windy spells are likely, especially in the west. Temperatures recovering through the week with a reduced risk of snow, frost and ice.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

    Even if they said raging blizzards...it could and is always subject to change. Why do some still take everything as gospel lol :)

    I ain't taking that as gospel, just mentioning what I heard, and like I said it doesn't match what a lot of the models show for later this week! Besides I couldn't care less what happens snow wise later this week as even on the more snowier outputs I'm still looking at more rain in my location anyway!
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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    I have to say as am unashamed coldie that I often find myself hoping that things will go pear shaped for cold because of the level of rudeness on the model thread by a sizeable crowd, rudeness to anyone who’s not gung-ho for cold, anybody in fact who so much as makes a case for what can go wrong, it is a disgrace. What we have in reality is a lot of people on both sides of the fence who want to rub peoples noses in it when they are right about how synoptics have panned out. The simple fact of the matter is codies out weigh mild fans on the model forum at about 50 - 1 and frankly they use that weight in numbers to bully

    This!

    some in the cold thread believe they 'deserve' cold and snow merely for craving it!

    after seeing the truly ugly side of the mod thread recently, I go from wanting snow & cold, to being more nonchalant and in some way, hoping for mild! Then again, it will be March soon, and Spring is my favourite season :)

    edit : lol @ my Freudian slip, i meant mod thread, not cold :)

    Edited by draztik
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

    Make what you will of that this is how the met see things

     

    UK Outlook for Friday 31 Jan 2014 to Sunday 9 Feb 2014:

     

    Risk of wintry showers over eastern and southeastern parts at first on Friday. Cloudier conditions with rain and hill snow should soon spread eastwards. Rain may be preceded by snow at some lower levels before melting away. Gales likely, especially in the northwest where they may be severe. Clearer conditions with wintry showers should spread in from the west for the weekend. Temperatures will be generally colder than normal with a risk of overnight frost and ice. Drier and brighter conditions are likely for a time on Monday before further spells of wet and often windy weather moves in from the southwest for Tuesday. Thereafter further wet and windy spells are likely, especially in the west. Temperatures recovering through the week with a reduced risk of snow, frost and ice.

    Bluurrrgggh Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: South Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny
  • Location: South Cheshire

    Well according to what the weather presenter said on news24 earlier I'd forget about snow anywhere at the end of this coming week as she mentioned a very short cold snap with mild wet and windy weather spreading in at the end of the week!Talk about conflicting signals, that comment certainly doesn't match what some of the models have been showing for the end of the week, unless perhaps some of the models only the uk met get to see are showing something completely different!

    Didn't Fergieweather say a few days ago that they had high confidence in a return to westerlies at day 10 which would have been for about next weekend, probably down to mogreps would be my guess.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Didn't Fergieweather say a few days ago that they had high confidence in a return to westerlies at day 10 which would have been for about next weekend, probably down to mogreps would be my guess.

    Reading between the lines, it may well be the next low doesn't slide south/ se but tracks more on a westerly direction. Prob the more likely but mid feb give us better chances IMO.
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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

    Atlantic breaks through unfortunately and uppers not impressive

     

     

     

    The 5 day ahead forecast just said "cold weather not lasting long as wet and windy weather arriving " So not much to go on with the models now then?

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    The 5 day ahead forecast just said "cold weather not lasting long as wet and windy weather arriving " So not much to go on with the models now then?

    Lets get the next few days nailed first

    http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/01/26/basis06/ukuk/prty/14012706_2606.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Atlantic influence looks like coming back into play for the end of the week some uncertainties on the timings

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    Some snow showers in the east on Thursday

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    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

    The 5 day ahead forecast just said "cold weather not lasting long as wet and windy weather arriving " So not much to go on with the models now then?

    That forecast was broadcast with about as much confidence as the models right now.I very much doubt that even mon night will be the same as that.Lots of swings yet be they up or down.But they will come
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