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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14


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Thats not a great update from the meto is it? I really was expecting a more wintry update than that! Posted Image

Thats what i was thinking, with all the hype about the cold in here i was expecting better than that! Maye the North East seeing snow but for the most of the UK just cooler rain. Not impressed!

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Thats what i was thinking, with all the hype about the cold in here i was expecting better than that! Maye the North East seeing snow but for the most of the UK just cooler rain. Not impressed!

 

The MetO do not ramp! What don't folk understand...

why rely so heavily on what they say in these updates. Go with Aiden, he's got a ' good feeling' after all!!

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Yes i think we are aware that you would LOVE it to go pear shaped bobby...

 

No, there's nothing more I'd like than a blizzard outside right now and a foot of snow and sub-zero temps. When snow is on the way/is snowing I get excited like a little kid. But we're long way of being remotely confident of anything like that yet.

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Yes, that forecast went all wrong really - But was this due to underestimating the strength of the block out East? Maybe so if you look at how the low has quickly in the wrong direction they were saying...

 

It's not often the Met Office are wrong to be honest, but with pretty much 85% agreement of a cold and potentially snowy spell next week, they don't mention anything, and until they do, I usher caution. Lets not forget, they do have access to a much broader scale of charts than we do... And they are Professionals.

 

Which is proabbly why they will be more cautious in their forcasts over the few hours/days

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So, having trawled through the Mod disc thread it seems like it's the Meto v Some of NW's 'big guns'. Difference of opinion on next week.Well, The Meto have been pretty much spot on, imo, this Winter.Who's gonna be proved correct come this time next week?

The 'Stand-Off' continues today, i see.
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The hopes and expectations are building to high levels in the model thread, if this goes pearshaped it's going to be some show.

 

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I agree. Some utterly ridiculous ramping in the main thread at the moment (IMO of course). The reason the met office are not warning about blizzards, sub zero days and ice flows off the coast is because its simply not supported in the output. I'm avoiding the main thread at present as anyone disagreeing with snowmaggedon is likely to get flamed big style.

I hope I'm wrong, but I just can't see it. I think if it comes the main event will actually be in another couple of weeks. Mid Feb.

Even if it did snow next week it will be a miracle if it lies given soil temps. Certainly not ruling out some snow almost anywhere, but anything long lasting?

Hopefully Fergie will inject some sense later on.

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Yes i think we are aware that you would LOVE it to go pear shaped bobby...

The proof as always will be in eating.This sums up the problem from my perspective. The Russian high is not really our friend tbh as its a warm set up for Europe.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=0&map=0&archive=0Lets hope those of us who remain cynics are proved wrong. My forecast is as follows (in order)> lots of ramping> disappointment (me included)> Anger> acceptance> lots of 'winter is over posts'> Finally, something much better in mid FebEdit: Below is the ECM 240 850 chart. No deep cold here!http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0Jason> Edited by Jason M
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I hope I'm wrong, but I just can't see it. I think if it comes the main event will actually be in another couple of weeks. Mid Feb.Even if it did snow next week it will be a miracle if it lies given soil temps. Certainly not ruling out some snow almost anywhere, but anything long lasting?Hopefully Fergie will inject some sense later on.e

 

Jason, agreed; there is some scope for transient snow into nxt week, but what with the Atlantic in seemingly no mood to play ball, a return to the Z word seems likely. Hopefully mid feb can deliver, as you suggest. But I must admit even that looks uncertain... LR models not seeing blocking into Feb. Of course, this can change!

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don't like Darren Betts presenting the BBC weather.  He always prefers mild weather.  Now when Thomasz Shafernacker and Rob Mc Elwee used to present it they used to make it really entertaining and exciting.... and it usually snowed.  Darren Betts is a jinx.

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Lets hope those of us who remain cynics are proved wrong. My forecast is as follows (in order)> lots of ramping> disappointment (me included)> Anger> acceptance> lots of 'winter is over posts'> Finally, something much better in mid FebJason>

 

If you look for the truth in the models, you'll still get snow if it's going to snow! - and the truth. Wishful thinking that it's going to snow - you'll find neither the truth nor maybe snow, and then in the end only dissapointment.

 

To paraphrase CS Lewis...

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The Met Office / BBC are not expecting anything too cold next week highs in the north of 4c and 6c in the south, the wind will make it feel colder in the north with a chance of some snow in eastern Scotland and North east England the coldest air out east isn't likely to make it over here hence why the temperatures are not expected to drop much lower than 4c

 

Its probably going to be a cold snap is how Darren Bett describes it "a few days early next week" signs are milder air will come back in from the Atlantic bringing more rain and the threat of more flooding

 

Its " a tricky situation" early next week according to Darren I get the feeling they are still not 100% certain on how things will pan out during the first part of the week minor changes to the models could make big differences to what we may or may not get

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According to Darren Bett, a cold snap at the beginning of the week lasting a few days only, then milder at towards end of week.

Woohoo...not. Have a feeling there could be some severe backtracking from the models tonight, so could get ugly in there

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The Met Office / BBC are not expecting anything too cold next week highs in the north of 4c and 6c in the south, the wind will make it feel colder in the north with a chance of some snow in eastern Scotland and North east England the coldest air out east isn't likely to make it over here hence why the temperatures are not expected to drop much lower than 4c Its probably going to be a cold snap is how Darren Bett describes it "a few days early next week" signs are milder air will come back in from the Atlantic bringing more rain and the threat of more flooding Its " a tricky situation" early next week according to Darren I get the feeling they are still not 100% certain on how things will pan out during the first part of the week minor changes to the models could make big differences to what we may or may not get

SIGNS being a rather large assumption atm .however there are growing signs atm of stagnation of westerly returns. ? Im bored of having say this, but 12z SHOULD shed at very least a more realistic prognosis in this situation. ?
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The Met Office / BBC are not expecting anything too cold next week highs in the north of 4c and 6c in the south, the wind will make it feel colder in the north with a chance of some snow in eastern Scotland and North east England the coldest air out east isn't likely to make it over here hence why the temperatures are not expected to drop much lower than 4c

 

Its probably going to be a cold snap is how Darren Bett describes it "a few days early next week" signs are milder air will come back in from the Atlantic bringing more rain and the threat of more flooding

 

Its " a tricky situation" early next week according to Darren I get the feeling they are still not 100% certain on how things will pan out during the first part of the week minor changes to the models could make big differences to what we may or may not get

Incorrect - they were MAXIMUM daytime temps, of which will be Major City centres

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According to Darren Bett, a cold snap at the beginning of the week lasting a few days only, then milder at towards end of week.

Woohoo...not. Have a feeling there could be some severe backtracking from the models tonight, so could get ugly in there

 

Ian Ferguson posted on the model thread think the day before yesterday saying the Meto then had low confidence in the 1-6 day forecast but high confidence of the 6-15 day forecast of a return to zonal flow (I think westerly but not neccesarily mild westerly) so nobody should be surprised if this is what happens as it is the forecast.

 

Unfortunatly I don't think the right ingredients / building blocks are in the right place for a proper wintery outbreak at the moment. They are there but just not where they should be (ie cold pool in Europe for example).

 

I hope we don't have a snowless winter, that would be sad :-(

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We've got some fabulous posters in the MOD working with far less data than the Met O. If it does all go pear shaped I for one will feel very sad for those who spend so much time compiling those informative posts. I wish we had access to the same data as the Met O :-(

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