Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[Barry12]

All this talk about wind and rain is so boring, how anyone can possibly find it interesting I don't know - it happens all the time in the UK. First post I've seen writing January off based on the ECM32, which changes every single run, it could be showing raging Easterlys on it's next run, but no let's write 5 weeks off.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

All this talk about wind and rain is so boring, how anyone can possibly find it interesting I don't know - it happens all the time in the UK. First post I've seen writing January off based on the ECM32, which changes every single run, it could be showing raging Easterlys on it's next run, but no let's write 5 weeks off.

Hmm not sure anyone is writing off Jan Barry but the early part of Jan looks poor for cold prospects.

We need some kind of amplification upstream but iv'e looked very hard and im struggling to see much if any.

That brutal PV is just feeding energy into the Atlantic and its in overdrive,until we see the back of those low heights to the North west its just more pain for us coldies really.

Maybe im being too pesimistic,but for the life of me i cant see any route to cold at the mo.

[TonyH]

You missed out Monday Martin, are you sure you did not advance your Christmas days as the big day is Wednesday which looks like the slacker day? Many thanks for your excellent input.

[Average Joe]

All this talk about wind and rain is so boring, how anyone can possibly find it interesting I don't know - it happens all the time in the UK. First post I've seen writing January off based on the ECM32, which changes every single run, it could be showing raging Easterlys on it's next run, but no let's write 5 weeks off.

 

That's as maybe in your opinion, but it's nice to hear about what the models are saying about the weather in the immediate future, rather than being solely focused on scanning constantly on what may happen 7-10 days ahead all the time. 

[Frosty.]

Hmm not sure anyone is writing off Jan Barry but the early part of Jan looks poor for cold prospects.

We need some kind of amplification upstream but iv'e looked very hard and im struggling to see much if any.

That brutal PV is just feeding energy into the Atlantic and its in overdrive,until we see the back of those low heights to the North west its just more pain for us coldies really.

Maybe im being too pesimistic,but for the life of me i cant see any route to cold at the mo.

At least there will be cold incursions during the period you mention, luckily we are not being swamped by continual mild weather as with some winters from the late 80's and through the 90's.

[fergieweather]

All this talk about wind and rain is so boring, how anyone can possibly find it interesting I don't know - it happens all the time in the UK. First post I've seen writing January off based on the ECM32, which changes every single run, it could be showing raging Easterlys on it's next run, but no let's write 5 weeks off.

Boring? Hmmm.... Re EC32, actually it's offered a very consistent & coherent story through past 5 runs. The nuance has been degree to which cyclonicity wanes to N and positioning of HP to S. Otherwise it's painted very similar outcomes. Arguably, it if WERE showing a raging easterly, I'd wager some would suddenly be backing it to the hilt. But it doesn't, and the point of this thread, surely, is to be objective given the output at our disposal.

[Frosty.]

Dont you just love that Pennine Pink Frosty - location location location!  - although coastal rain on the Fylde for us as per usual.

 

Might be interesting up at the Kirkstone next week (1500 asl) as I will do a detour up the "Struggle" from Ambleside after visiting relatives - might even take the sledge 

 

In the meantime keeping a close eye on the next bombardment.......

 

h500slp.png

 

Ian

I think this type of weather pattern with lows taking a slightly more southerly track is very good news for the scottish skiing industry and for northern hills in general to have frequent wintry spells..the higher up you are..snake pass and woodhead pass again likely to be closed at times.

[Frosty.]

Boring? Hmmm.... Re EC32, actually it's offered a very consistent & coherent story through past 5 runs. The nuance has been degree to which cyclonicity wanes to N and positioning of HP to S. Otherwise it's painted very similar outcomes. Arguably, it if WERE showing a raging easterly, I'd wager some would suddenly be backing it to the hilt. But it doesn't, and the point of this thread, surely, is to be objective given the output at our disposal.

Absolutely, my definition of boring is a limpet euro high and a gentle, mild southerly feed across the uk with the only thing to discuss being the various cloud layers. now that's BORING...the weather during the coming weeks is anything but boring.

[johnholmes]

I think this type of weather pattern with lows taking a slightly more southerly track is very good news for the scottish skiing industry and for northern hills in general to have frequent wintry spells..the higher up you are..snake pass and woodhead pass again likely to be closed at times.

Flash village web cam after the snow last evening, around 1500ft

http://www.flashbarstores.co.uk/

and the same at the Cat and Fiddle, similar height

http://www.maccinfo.com/cat/

Edited December 20, 2013 by Osbourne One-Nil
Please do click John's link. NW cannot be held responsible for the consequences of Googling "Flash Webcam"

[bluearmy]

Boring? Hmmm.... Re EC32, actually it's offered a very consistent & coherent story through past 5 runs. The nuance has been degree to which cyclonicity wanes to N and positioning of HP to S. Otherwise it's painted very similar outcomes. Arguably, it if WERE showing a raging easterly, I'd wager some would suddenly be backing it to the hilt. But it doesn't, and the point of this thread, surely, is to be objective given the output at our disposal.

 

steady on ian - objective ?  you might be in the wrong place !!  

 

looking through the 'crude' ecm 32 dayer on weatherbell, it does look like rinse and repeat with occasional troughing dropping to our south before the next ridge cuts it off and steers the flow back south of west, moreso in the south.  i still think there are opportunities for snow events in the north of the uk over the next couple of weeks though as others have pointed out, as the output comes closer, so features crop up to take the jet that bit further north (next weeks depression a case in point where yesterdays deeper ecm option which will of course track further n is now shown on gfs and ukmo)

[Kentspur]

I've got to say although I love the cold and snow this time of year as much as most people in this forum. I've got to agree the weather is pretty interesting- last night even in my south easterly location we had cracking thunder fork lightning hail and sleet amongst the storms. I've got to say though that the netweather winter forecast is hardly covering itself in glory- a cold and dry December high pressure dominated really?!

[Gibby]

All this talk about wind and rain is so boring, how anyone can possibly find it interesting I don't know - it happens all the time in the UK. First post I've seen writing January off based on the ECM32, which changes every single run, it could be showing raging Easterlys on it's next run, but no let's write 5 weeks off.

Never would describe the weather as boring in the UK. There is always something to talk about. I admit like frosty that a SE European high and the mundane events that goes with it is boring but it's all part of the weather as far as I'm concerned. I know many on here love snow and ice and crave all Winter for it but it's not a natural pattern for the UK and there will always be a greater emphasis on the milder Atlantic driven variety over Continental air masses in any Winter Season. With regard to the here and now the prospect of high winds and heavy rain is OK for me. 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I've got to say although I love the cold and snow this time of year as much as most people in this forum. I've got to agree the weather is pretty interesting- last night even in my south easterly location we had cracking thunder fork lightning hail and sleet amongst the storms. I've got to say though that the netweather winter forecast is hardly covering itself in glory- a cold and dry December high pressure dominated really?!

To be fair long range forecasting is still in its infancy and it may take many years to find the key to the puzzle.

At this present time i don't think it can be done with much confidence,as highlighted by your post.

Glacier point will be doing stacks of work in this field i would imagine,its the likes of him that will advance the field in the coming years,whether he and others can come up with the key remains to be seen.Maybe mother nature won't allow it.

[fergieweather]

steady on ian - objective ?  you might be in the wrong place !!   looking through the 'crude' ecm 32 dayer on weatherbell, it does look like rinse and repeat with occasional troughing dropping to our south before the next ridge cuts it off and steers the flow back south of west, moreso in the south.  i still think there are opportunities for snow events in the north of the uk over the next couple of weeks though as others have pointed out, as the output comes closer, so features crop up to take the jet that bit further north (next weeks depression a case in point where yesterdays deeper ecm option which will of course track further n is now shown on gfs and ukmo)

The nearer-term and MR output offers varied prospects for snow in places, as you note. The threat of disruptive winds & flooding remains the major forecast issue for next few days, obviously.

[Timbo]

Why all the negativity??

Everyone seems so hooked on the ec32 dayer, 

If you look at things from another angle, the gfs has p2 showing an easterly and very cold uppers, and also the CFS is showing Easterlys and cold uppers!!!

Both of these are being shown arround the same time frame, arround the first week of Jan..

These situations can pot up from no where, lets all chill out and see what happens,    

[tcc]

You certainly can't call the weather coming up as boring Barry! Come on if it was showing endless days on grey slate skies and temps around 6 or 7 for a couple of weeks then I would agree with you, however we have sunshine, heavy rain, sleet, snow, hail (very heavy last night down here), thunder and lightning (again last night) which appears to be the recipe for the new few weeks!

 

UK weather at it's best IMO

 

Sustained cold and snow will surely come but based on current prognosis and respected long range forecasts, this might not happen until late Jan at the earliest, in the meantimejsut enjoy the weather that mother nature is throwing at us.

 

We certainly need to keep an eye down here on the rain over the new few days as the river levels are pretty high, let alone the wind!

[Gael_Force]

You certainly can't call the weather coming up as boring Barry! Come on if it was showing endless days on grey slate skies and temps around 6 or 7 for a couple of weeks then I would agree with you, however we have sunshine, heavy rain, sleet, snow, hail (very heavy last night down here), thunder and lightning (again last night) which appears to be the recipe for the new few weeks!

 

UK weather at it's best IMO

 

Sustained cold and snow will surely come but based on current prognosis and respected long range forecasts, this might not happen until late Jan at the earliest, in the meantimejsut enjoy the weather that mother nature is throwing at us.

 

We certainly need to keep an eye down here on the rain over the new few days as the river levels are pretty high, let alone the wind!

 

That's reality weather, it is not seen, felt or enjoyed; to the virtual weather watcher, it is just an inconvenience in the search for the next ice age at 384

[UV-RAY]

It's all well and good saying not to moan about our weather but how many would say the same if we had another washout summer with a big fat greeny high and a trough sat over us, would we then say it's exciting.

Edited December 20, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

It's all well and good saying not to moan about our weather but how many would say the same if we had another washout summer with a big fat greeny high and a trough sat over us, would we then say it's exciting.

 

Er yes I would :-)

[Evening thunder]

So in the last 2 days I've seen: heavy rain, gales, clear sunny skies, calm winds, frost, mist, stormy seas, a very high river, showers, hail, starry skies with a well defined frontal clearance and moonlit CB'S, and a spectacular sunset along with a rainbow.. if that's boring then you're not really interested in most weather types.

 

The only thing i'd prefer perhaps is more frost and snow, although I was lucky enough to spend a few days in Tampere, Finland recently and there was snow cover but much less varied weather.

 

It would be disappointing to not get a proper cold spell with some frost and snow at some point and I may be a bit impatient if nothings happened or about to happen come the end of January, but I'd very much rather have this weather than a cloudy dull Bartlett or high like recently with nothing much happening.

[Frank Trough]

It's all well and good saying not to moan about our weather but how many would say the same if we had another washout summer with a big fat greeny high and a trough sat over us, would we then say it's exciting.

some people most definitely would! i can remember reading posts in the depths of summer 2012 which were thoroughly enjoying the rain and southerly tracking lows. i was not one of them.....

 

The few times recently i've had a laugh at the CFS charts for spring it seems to be showing the usual potential for a waning of the low hights to the north and the possibility of another generally below average spring. 

[UV-RAY]

So in the last 2 days I've seen: heavy rain, gales, clear sunny skies, calm winds, frost, mist, stormy seas, a very high river, showers, hail, starry skies with a well defined frontal clearance and moonlit CB'S, and a spectacular sunset along with a rainbow.. if that's boring then you're not really interested in most weather types.The only thing i'd prefer perhaps is more frost and snow, although I was lucky enough to spend a few days in Tampere, Finland recently and there was snow cover but much less varied weather.It would be disappointing to not get a proper cold spell with some frost and snow at some point and I may be a bit impatient if nothings happened or about to happen come the end of January, but I'd very much rather have this weather than a cloudy dull Bartlett or high like recently with nothing much happening.

But would you say it was exciting if it was summer that saw all those bar the frost and snow that is. For me seeing gales and rain is just bog standard UK weather and something we endure rather than enjoy, I still like storms but not one after another. Edited December 20, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Frank Trough]

But would you say it was exciting if it was summer that saw all those bar the frost and snow that is. For me seeing gales and rain is just bog standard UK weather and something we endure rather than enjoy, I still like storms but not one after another.

 

I do prefer this to the benign bartlett-style stuff but that's not to say it doesn't also have plenty of negative impacts - on me personally and of course other people. For one, my commute is much, much worse in wet, winter weather. Plus flooding issues aren't nice. 

 

But, on the flipside, i went for a run on wednesday evening about 6pm along the seafront and it was exhilarating. My goodness, the strength of the wind, the crashing tide and horizontal rain were actually really quite exciting. 

[MP-R]

December of course isn't out yet but more Decembers than not there is at least one snowfall here.

 

16th Dec 2011, 2010 numerous, 21st Dec 2009, 29th Dec 2005, 19th Dec 2004, wasn't here 2003, 10th Dec 2002, 30th Dec 2001, 28th Dec 2000 etc.

 

Most come after the 21st and have often been a surprise so let's hope that's the case this year, a distinct possibility going by the overall trend in the models (not individual runs). 2000 was very zonal but finished very cold!

[Average Joe]

To quote Vyvyan from the Young Ones, "Snow, Snow, bloody snow.....!!!

 

Surely winter's more about desperately seeking the likelihood of snow day after day, or am I missing something?