Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[snowbob]

The posts are ridiculous.

It's on

It's off

It's bad

It's good

Oh man

This is so hard to watch lol

[terrier]

Well things certainly look a lot different today. As Ian said yesterday were on a knife edge here. Easterleys are so difficult to achive in the uk . Think we may need another bite of the cherry here. My feeling is we will miss out here. With something more meaningful months end.

[cobbett]

Well things certainly look a lot different today. As Ian said yesterday were on a knife edge here. Easterleys are so difficult to achive in the uk . Think we may need another bite of the cherry here. My feeling is we will miss out here. With something more meaningful months end.

Think you could be right - a  downgrade had to happen after I told the guys in the pub it'll be wintry down here next week...doh

Edited January 9, 2014 by cobbett

[theskyatnight]

this is all getting very dodgy and people saying downgradres coz its not in their back yard.charts still look good

[R.P. McMurphy]

Think you could be right - a  downgrade had to happen after I told the guys in the pub it'll be wintry down here next week...doh

 

It's a good job it's just his feeling then !

Edited January 9, 2014 by Glenn W

[stodge]

Morning all

 

Another day, another set of ludicrous half thought-out one-liners filling the MOD thread. Some people really do stake their lives on the turn of a programme - there's the next generation of compulsive gamblers for you !

 

To be honest, I've quite enjoyed the milder weather - I have an early start and a long journey to work so I'll take dry followed by mild. I hate snow and ice as much as I hate wind and rain first thing on a winter morning.

 

Looking ahead, the evolution beyond Sunday is far from clear and far from certain. I honestly thought we would have an anticyclonic winter but I was wrong about that - I've also been of the view that the coldest weather would be mid-February and I might be wrong about that too.

 

I'm surprised how quickly this evolution has develped in the past 72 hours and, as the usual doom-mongers will no doubt relish in pointing out, "it could all go wrong". Honestly, there are some people who would scream downgrade if the storm force easterlies at T+6 were -15 uppers rather than -20 and no doubt the usual suspects will be going on about the breakdown before the cold spell has started.

[MPG]

Lots of IMBY ruining the model output thread. Guys from Ireland really turning the screw!

[Mapantz]

Morning all :)and no doubt the usual suspects will be going on about the breakdown before the cold spell has started.

It works both ways too, assuming that there is definitely a cold spell coming? The models may have shown that yesterday but it was never set in stone, the 'usual suspects' got overexcited, so really, folks have as much right to bleat about a breakdown of sorts, as the folks that say 'before the cold arrives' It doesn't happen every time of course but it has already happened a few times this season.

[P-M]

Well Meto are hinting at an easterly of sorts even if at this stage confined to the NE areas:

 

On Tuesday there will be some rain over northeast Scotland and showers in the west and southwest. However eastern parts are likely to be fine and dry, with frost and a risk of fog patches at first. Strong winds and further rain, heavy at times, are likely to spread from the southwest during Wednesday. Through the week it may become cold in the northeast, with strong easterly winds and wintry showers. Western and southwestern parts are probably going to be less cold and cloudier with further rain. Later in the month it is likely to become less cold and more changeable, with sunny spells and showers or longer periods of rain, these perhaps more likely in the northwest.

[Ali1977]

I think realistically a turn round back to cold next week is off the cards....everything bar the Gem is downgrading the cold.................

 

Feels more disappointing than before the possibility was there.

 

[MPG]

Well Meto are hinting at an easterly of sorts even if at this stage confined to the NE areas:

 

On Tuesday there will be some rain over northeast Scotland and showers in the west and southwest. However eastern parts are likely to be fine and dry, with frost and a risk of fog patches at first. Strong winds and further rain, heavy at times, are likely to spread from the southwest during Wednesday. Through the week it may become cold in the northeast, with strong easterly winds and wintry showers. Western and southwestern parts are probably going to be less cold and cloudier with further rain. Later in the month it is likely to become less cold and more changeable, with sunny spells and showers or longer periods of rain, these perhaps more likely in the northwest.

Thats ok then, you live in the NE.

[cheese]

The UK is a great place for boring weather enthusiasts.

 

In actual fact, it looks pretty chilly here next week, but no snow.

Edited January 9, 2014 by cheese

[UV-RAY]

Oh good the rains going to get colder.

[MPG]

I think realistically a turn round back to cold next week is off the cards....everything bar the Gem is downgrading the cold.................

 

Feels more disappointing than before the possibility was there.

 

The GEM was the first model to forecast the colder charts, if the flip happens it will be later.

[snow freak]

This winter is really starting to get on my nerves now.  Actually doesn't feel like winter, more like a perpetual autumn with all this rain and wind.  Had hardly any frosts in the midlands and absolutely no snow, not even one flake.  The models keep hinting at something cold and then in the next run they all backtrack and its back to square one.  I love the winter, but if this one continues like this i can't wait for the warmer weather and summer.  Better that the the endless disappointments when it comes to this country and any kind of snow chances.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GFS, ECM no cold, then real cold, then not so cold, maybe pretty cold?  UKMO never cold never cold never cold.  GEM very cold, very cold, very cold.  Should be interesting next 2 days

 

BFTP

[BM4PM]

I think realistically a turn round back to cold next week is off the cards....everything bar the Gem is downgrading the cold.................

 

Feels more disappointing than before the possibility was there.

 

Comon it ain't over yet,still pleanty to play for.

[R.P. McMurphy]

[AWD]

Latest from Ian Fergusson;

"Colder spell next week nothing unusual for Jan, stress @metoffice. More pronounced to NE. Snow for various areas possible; ditto rain in S. The Express hyperbole well over-the-top, unsurprisingly. Yes, a different mode of winter weather but hardly anything exceptional."

[UV-RAY]

Latest from Ian Fergusson;"Colder spell next week nothing unusual for Jan, stress @metoffice. More pronounced to NE. Snow for various areas possible; ditto rain in S. The Express hyperbole well over-the-top, unsurprisingly. Yes, a different mode of winter weather but hardly anything exceptional."

Yeah, bog standard winter fayre though compared to what we've endured at least some will see something a little different. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I wouldn't have too much downheartedness from Ian F's update, they expect cold....a decent start.  Lets see what develops from there...we know how incorrect the models can be and we also know about how nowcasts change too either up or downgrade.

 

BFTP

[Tamara]

There is far far too much face value belief attached to these tweets and updates from the METO and associated 'employees' which simply reflect the ebbs, flows and nuances of day to day model output. The emphasis of the soundbites change with the suggestions of the model and ensemble output...the pendulum swings one way..and then the other...and so do the broadcasted statements

 

The latest tweets (or whatever source they are taken from) from IF or others today are no more or less significant than what was posted yesterday about the possibilities of what might happen if a cold block gets entrenched. On this basis, and on the basis that the overall background pattern hasn't altered at all since yesterday, then suggestions of return to mobility in the further outlook are no more or less significant than anything said yesterday either

 

This was a relevant post yesterday - and it was/is as equally valid as anything said before or since it:

 

For the newbies - a note a caution that alongside variance in the timing and scope of onset of any colder easterly feed, much as the models currently portray, don;t take the cessation (e.g. as per 12z GFS) too literally either. History shows us that once established, such cold takes some shifting and inevitably, the models exhibit set tendency to sweep the blocking aside and take us back to mobility. Thus, whilst we are still at tentative stages re onset (and any initial consequences, e.g., snow perhaps from Midlands northwards early next week, as the system from west Sun-Mon quickly occludes-out), we are most certainly nowhere close to estimating wht on earth happens thereafter. So, please don't take the model 'closure' of the blocked signal for granted.... we've been round this circuit before in recent winters!  

[Chris K]

(Please note, I am typing this post whilst cuddling a box of straws)

 

I wonder if the models were perhaps being too progressive in bringing cold from the East so soon?

 

Similar to the idea of models often picking up a signal due to initial atmospheric changes, dropping it, then bringing it back further down the line - could we still see this decent cold easterly eventually?

 

It seems rather sudden to go from a powerful Jet barrelling LP systems to the UK straight into a countrywide, cold, snowy, easterly setup thanks to a blocking High over Scandinavia - all in one attempt? (I realise there can be quick changes but it still needs time to shift into position)

 

Maybe this first 'bite' will disappoint (some), but there is nothing concrete yet. Who is to say that heights will not continue to try build in a more favourable position to eventually give us a pattern that so many here desire? Quite a few winter forecasts did suggest late Jan & Feb would be our best bet for colder conditions. It will be interesting to see if these come to fruition.

 

I just hope we don't end up with stalling fronts of rain....could do with a county-sized hairdryer down here!!

[Rose]

This winter is really starting to get on my nerves now.  Actually doesn't feel like winter, more like a perpetual autumn with all this rain and wind.  Had hardly any frosts in the midlands and absolutely no snow, not even one flake.  The models keep hinting at something cold and then in the next run they all backtrack and its back to square one.  I love the winter, but if this one continues like this i can't wait for the warmer weather and summer.  Better that the the endless disappointments when it comes to this country and any kind of snow chances.

Me too!  The bulbs are coming up, particularly the snow drops & that's a real welcome sight BUT I really want some good snow events, frosts etc FIRST as it feels 'backwards' that spring shows signs before winter has bitten. I'm always optimistic for snow in February because that's the month historically for it. Here's hoping!

[be cause]

funny ..my prediction for this winter was 3 months of extra autumn ...