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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

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Slightly off topic but just watched Canadian weather channel and forecaster said GFS as been doing good at 6 days and ECM as been performing well lately ,Isay ecm but he did say european model .catch up  after morning runs good night .Posted Image

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ecm fi ens push a lobe of the canadian vortex well across the atlantic. 528 mean across the borders by day 16.  a cold zonal chart for the uk. whilst that propensity to push the vortex energy across to s greenland and beyond exists , the atlantic will be a wild place. the jet sinking slowly south with the scots actually clear of the pfj by day 16.  i am certainly moving to the camp that say forget the scandi ridge to deliver any deep cold. we have to get through the cold zonality and sinking jet first.  those secondary lows will be of great interest next week and through xmas. (i wouldnt write off a white xmas for some if one of those scoots across the southern half of the uk at the right time of day)

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The 18z in fi shows signs the jet is moving south with southerly tracking low pressure systems, cold zonality over the Xmas period will be a good bet I think. Which can be very interesting , ie heavy squally wintry showers.

I remember dec 2011 cold zonality spell well. We had lots of sleet an hail in the morning and when I came home later about half 3 that afternoon it snowed really heavy for 1.5 hrs giving two inches of wet snow , only to be washed away by heavy sleet showers that night, a small patch of sub 528dam air moved over England during the day , hence the snow. Exciting model watching it can be :))

Good to see very tentative signs of things moving toward a colder set up toward new year , any news from the OMM is well received in my book , with wave 2 activity on the increase in about 9/10 days time things will begin to look brighter as the jet moves south .

Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=336&mode=0Happy Christmas... Not!! Storm surge from that. Unlikely to verify at that range though.Jason

No, I'm liking the GFS take on things and I can be quoted on that.  Yes the deep cold isn't on the horizon but was it really ever properly expected ? but I tell you if GFS is picking up the right pattern we got a hell of an end of the year to look forward to.  Old Met Man has put it so well.

I actually like a 'thrashing' from the west as 'part' of our winter, in fact I've been spoiled last couple of days as this benign set up has brought me fog, frost and cold couple of days and nights.....

 

BFTP

 

 

BFTP

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The gfs 18z deep fi shows much of where the modelling is trending. Add to that a hugely potential filled polar profile and its a good time to retire or some zzzzzzzzz's

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I love pancakes but I'm not sure the upcoming pattern will be as flat as one, I anticipate some ebb and flow with polar maritime incursions, at least across scotland and occasionally digging further south, it's not a 3000 mile long draw sw'ly we are heading for in the next few weeks, the airmasses will chop and change between milder, average and rather cold with more emphasis on the cold between xmas / new year.

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If you want something easy on the eyes before you go to sleep tonight, once again, its the CFS daily that offers a pretty stunning january tonight. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=894&code=0&carte=0&mode=2&run=10 GFS 18z showing the possible cold zonal outcome, im sure some in the north and north west wouldn't be too disappointed with that. 

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chris 'call me guy' fawkes mentioned Christmas earlier on bbcnews24..Posted Image

 

a pretty good chance approaching atlantic systems will be with us up to Christmas..not really like 1981 then. (ho hum).

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http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9112/gfsnh-0-240_vjx4.png

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4290/ECH1-240_cqj2.GIF

Interesting. If wind and rain is your thing, enjoy. Let's hope this leads to something more favourable after.

GFS having a deeper low than the ECM, which is not unusual. As time gets nearer it's not unusual for it to trend further north, we will see.

Edited by That ECM

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Hi folks. Just a quick summary for me before off to work.

 

In Summary the models all show a potentially stormy and generally mild period in the run up to Christmas and probably over Christmas too with some rapidly deepening depressions spinning across the Atlantic and up to the NW of Britain with SW gale or severe gales and temperatures remaining generally on the mild side of average. In among the periods of rain some brighter and showery conditions will rush over at times and temperatures will fall briefly to average with some wintry showers over northern hills. But from this morning' output this looks the best we can hope for between now and maybe the New Year as the very strong Jet Stream continues unabated across the Atlantic and the UK supported by High pressure over Southern Europe.

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Another trend this morning towards a very full blown brussel sprout moment ,indeed if next Thurs pans out as forecast by ECM a Very severe spell of weather is on the cards .certainly a very active north Atlantic at the moment ,High pressure over southern and s/east Europe is being attacked but at the moment remains close enough to keep anything too cold at bay ,but that could change so things looking interesting and with plenty for us to debate .Posted Image

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I disagree with your Mild outlook Gibby. Unless you live in the South.

Agreed, I regard mild as 12-14 c...don't see anything like that and the strength of the winds would take the edge off any mildness, plus the rather colder polar maritime incursions, there would be snow on northern hills from the upcoming pattern, perhaps to lower levels at times depending on how far south the PFJ digs. 

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I disagree with your Mild outlook Gibby. Unless you live in the South.

Ironically that ECM chart you posted would be milder on the surface than it currently is down here at the moment Posted Image

Yeah the quiet dull grey mild weather we are having. So mild I'm scraping ice off the car every morning and having lunch in glorious sunshine. Heh.

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http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9112/gfsnh-0-240_vjx4.pnghttp://images.meteociel.fr/im/4290/ECH1-240_cqj2.GIFInteresting. If wind and rain is your thing, enjoy. Let's hope this leads to something more favourable after.GFS having a deeper low than the ECM, which is not unusual. As time gets nearer it's not unusual for it to trend further north, we will see.

The trend continues from yesterday , with rather more cold zonality that was forecast . With a segment of the vortex dropping down from Greenland into the east Atlantic you can see by looking at the northern hemi charts it's hinting as the energy draws away from the north it MAY allow hight rises in the gaps appearing, that's normal really given the look of the forecasts , so as head toward Xmas and behond things should begin to look much better , excellent post by Old Met Man last night which again it's like he wrote the script this morning ,(granted in its very early stages) and over the next 4 days I think we will begin to see some eye candy.Also in the stratosphere forecast this morning we have the strongest wave 2 activity of the season at day 10 , some really potent wave activity . http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/page-26Along with some really excellent posts by chiono and recretos . Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast

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I agree with gibby over all it will be milder just above average for most England and wales 75% of the uk will be mild but has been suggested the cold will from time to time will be around in Scotland perhaps northern England but even this depends on how quickly low pressure systems get through the uk, if they become slow moving the term mild can be used as the air source over most of the uk will be mostly from a milder source.

 

and with all models showing continuation of European and azores blocking then the likely outcome is mostly mild wet and windy although it wont be to pleasant in the wind and rain.

 

when these blocks allow a better angle for low pressure to attack and heights can build in a more northerly area then perhaps we can expect to see a more below average temp wise.

 

but as it stands all the models are still showing a powerful jet powering through the alantic with vortex spawning powerful alantic storms.

so wind rain will be the feature of out weather for awhile yet.

 

until we start to see a complete collapse of heights to our south and movement of the vortex with more south east diving jet or a weakening jet but until then gibby is correct in saying what he has said.Posted Image

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Models seem to be winding up the ante with each LP or Sub LP heading our way.  We are certainly heading into a very active period and as PM says some decent snow likely over Highlands at least, trouble will be the wind factor up there.  I think it will be a dangerous place to be at times. 

Hopefully that dartboard low ECM has will be less so or less of a hit, as its FI it may well get shifted and watered down a tad

 

Nasty

 

Posted Image

 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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Agreed, I regard mild as 12-14 c...don't see anything like that and the strength of the winds would take the edge off any mildness, plus the rather colder polar maritime incursions, there would be snow on northern hills from the upcoming pattern, perhaps to lower levels at times depending on how far south the PFJ digs.

Like your optimism but going through the GFS Dewpoints, out of the 384 hours only about 72 hours had a Dewpoint zero or below in England. They were transient, and looking at the corresponding snow chances they were for 600-900 meters. In fact from the M4 south temps for the mean on the GFS for the 12 hours upto 1pm were between 10-12c for pretty much the last seven days.Unless the jet sinks further south most of England will be seeing above average temps and even the wind chill will be negated as the wind charts show a mainly SW/w flow for south of Birmingham, barring one full PM incursion and a half hearted one. I won't argue about rainfall, no point showing charts for that, just assume 24-7 rain fest with flooding, traffic chaos, etc. I don't know why anyone would crave for the upcoming weather pattern.

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Agreed, I regard mild as 12-14 c...don't see anything like that and the strength of the winds would take the edge off any mildness, plus the rather colder polar maritime incursions, there would be snow on northern hills from the upcoming pattern, perhaps to lower levels at times depending on how far south the PFJ digs. 

Ave temps in Mid Dec are 6-9c north to south Frosty.  So temps of 9-12c would be considered mild and 12-14c very mild. Clearly the strength of the wind will mean it feels anything but mild at times, but that has nothing to do with the defination of the ambient air temps.

 

Looking at this mornings model outputs I can see nothing in the way of significant change up to and including Xmas, with the whole period quite easily summed up as unsettled, with showers or longer outbreaks of rain and often strong winds. Mild overall, but temps closer to normal during any brief Pm or RPm incursions. White Xmas (at least by the bookies defination) not out the question across the north, IF one of those Pm incursions is correctly timed, but that remains a very long shot at this stage.

Edited by shedhead

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If anyone is reading the model outputs and expecting cold zonality then I think they need to be a little bit careful.  Past 120 hours the models will not necessarily be picking up short waves that will develop; these shortwaves as they deepen swing North so the best chance of colder style 'zonality' IMO will be in the NW of the British Isles etc.  

 

It's been cold down here the last couple of days - didn't reach 3c yesterday in Charlwood, Surrey - although I appreciate in some areas it's currently not very festive in terms of temperatures.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/charlwood_latest_weather_graphs.html

Edited by beng

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