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Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

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Christmas day still looks windy, not cold enough for snow though away from the far north west of Scotland

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun

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Interesting strat chart too- the sharks are circling....

 

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The end of FI looks like it would evolve the '78/'79 route......interestingly an analogue for this winter......

 

Historically we've seen major pattern changes around the Christmas/New Year period....could this year feature another one?

Edited by CreweCold

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So the GFS starts to fling LPs, sub lows, amplification, storms, amazing amounts of rain.....hard to describe but as I said earlier I think GFS is more on the money than a clean SW' but I expect consolidation of this with an increasingly active December ahead

 

The best thing about the output at the minute is that European HP is being forced further and further S with each run.

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The best thing about the output at the minute is that European HP is being forced further and further S with each run.

Added a bit on as pressed post too soon.....I've ramped a bit

 

BFTP

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https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/410745423867830272/photo/1/large

 

Looking for a small straw to cling to - (apologies if posted already) latest CFS ensembles indicate the AO should switch negative through the last part of Dec and into January. 

 

Some of those ensembles tank to below the limit of the scale!

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Added a bit on as pressed post too soon.....I've ramped a bit

 

BFTP

 

I think the general notion of your post may be correct. It's telling that up until a couple of days ago the NWP was advertising nothing but non-stop rampant mobility right up to the edges of FI but since then we've seen a general stray away from this scenario. When the GFS starts to try and depart from such a scenario in FI it's time to sit up and watch.

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A strongly zonal GFS with some very mild temperatures at times.

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I see the CFS has made a special guest performance this evening!  You know things are looking a bit dodgy in relation to cold prospects when this appears! I'm hardly one of its biggest fans so won't go into one but we'll see whether theres any other support for that trend in the AO over the coming days from the NWP.

 

Regarding the CFS the key is whether it incorporates data from the stratosphere and how many levels it covers?I've read it includes some Ocean data but as to the strat anyone got any answers re that.

Edited by nick sussex

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Well if it ain't going top be cold lets have some action instead. GFS looking more stormy now with plenty of possible weather events to distract from the lack of cold in the coming week. Hopefully ECM won't show a calmer scenario.

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I see the CFS has made a special guest performance this evening!  You know things are looking a bit dodgy in relation to cold prospects when this appears! .

So true, I did say it was only a straw to cling to though :-)

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UKMO looks good to me at 144 hrs tonight. I can't see the NH plot at 144 as it's showing an archive chart from September on Meteociel. However looking at the NH 120 hrs chart and then looking at this at 144 on Wetter.......

 

Posted Image

 

we are seeing an Arctic high lurking to the NNE there, which suggests the progression to 120 is maintained at day 6 with low heights of the vortex eroding away from the NE Following on from this at 120....

 

Posted Image

 

 

Would be interesting to see the NH plot at day 6 but ECM will be interesting tonight.

Edited by CreweCold

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So true, I did say it was only a straw to cling to though :-)

Yes of course desperate times calls for desperate measures! lol

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I think this evenings UKMO is rather progressive, it goes from this at 120;

 

Posted Image

 

to this at 144 Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by Barry95

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In the CFS re-analysys data there are strat plots.

 

Apart from that i'm none the wiser.

 

 

 

I see the CFS has made a special guest performance this evening!  You know things are looking a bit dodgy in relation to cold prospects when this appears! I'm hardly one of its biggest fans so won't go into one but we'll see whether theres any other support for that trend in the AO over the coming days from the NWP.

 

Regarding the CFS the key is whether it incorporates data from the stratosphere and how many levels it covers?I've read it includes some Ocean data but as to the strat anyone got any answers re that.

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Errr yes there seems to be a slight problem reflect in other charts as well. Actually the wrong chart is being display at T144 it's from September!!!!!!

post-2404-0-18851100-1386785408_thumb.gi

post-2404-0-41699800-1386785408_thumb.gi

Edited by The PIT

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I think this evenings UKMO is rather progressive, it goes from this at 120;

 

Posted Image

 

to this at 144 Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

 

That's never right surely.....

 

*edit* It's from september.

Edited by Skyraker

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I see the CFS has made a special guest performance this evening!  You know things are looking a bit dodgy in relation to cold prospects when this appears! I'm hardly one of its biggest fans so won't go into one but we'll see whether theres any other support for that trend in the AO over the coming days from the NWP.

 

Regarding the CFS the key is whether it incorporates data from the stratosphere and how many levels it covers?I've read it includes some Ocean data but as to the strat anyone got any answers re that.

 

Recretos was posting CFS  charts for January in the strat thread.

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A strongly zonal GFS with some very mild temperatures at times.

I don't see how anyone can really argue with that one...But then, after giving the subject further consideration, someone just might?

 

Generally though: there's nothing wrong with folks stating what the models are saying; the fact that nothing is showing what most of us want them to show, is immaterial...

Edited by A Boy Named Sue

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I see the CFS has made a special guest performance this evening!  You know things are looking a bit dodgy in relation to cold prospects when this appears! I'm hardly one of its biggest fans so won't go into one but we'll see whether theres any other support for that trend in the AO over the coming days from the NWP. Regarding the CFS the key is whether it incorporates data from the stratosphere and how many levels it covers?I've read it includes some Ocean data but as to the strat anyone got any answers re that.

I'm not entirely sure of how many levels it has but it definitely does model at least the lower strat - Recretos on the strat thread posted a CFS strat forecast at some point so I reckon it goes to at least 1mb. I'm not sure what its record would be compared to the ECM/GFS RE forecasting warmings but while it nailed the very cold March it only seemed to flip to this after the SSW had already occurred. Better than if it were showing a positive AO though!

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Epic ECM to throw a spanner in the works would be nice, and no doubt disregarded

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UKMO looks good to me at 144 hrs tonight. I can't see the NH plot at 144 as it's showing an archive chart from September on Meteociel. However looking at the NH 120 hrs chart and then looking at this at 144 on Wetter.......

 

Posted Image

 

we are seeing an Arctic high lurking to the NNE there, which suggests the progression to 120 is maintained at day 6 with low heights of the vortex eroding away from the NE Following on from this at 120....

 

Posted Image

 

 

Would be interesting to see the NH plot at day 6 but ECM will be interesting tonight.

Good post Crewe, first thing we need to see is that HP in the Arctic, this should shred the PV and allow a much colder pool pour towards Europe...Good signs today from the Models.

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Well Frosty's dreams have come true. 18 of the GEFS at T384 have the UK in a zonal flow of one sort or another:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=384

The pressure chart for the ens sums up that there are many zonal permutations waiting for us:

post-14819-0-67803400-1386785035_thumb.g

Lots of scatter, so you may think something cold would be lurking there:

post-14819-0-76817300-1386785067_thumb.g

No. Lots of rain though. Totally miserable outlook.

The GEFS mean has been sinking the Euro High run by run and now the whole UK is under the mean zonal flow:

post-14819-0-90937900-1386785252_thumb.p post-14819-0-22517100-1386785291_thumb.p

A raging jet that breaks just after the UK, as it hits the Euro block.

A NE Canada/Greenland raging vortex and the UK under the mean trough is worse than any IB forecasts.

The GFS 12z T384 is the chart that we can say December is now lost for cold: post-14819-0-81591600-1386786082_thumb.p

As for January, the trend from the CFS has been rock solid in the last two weeks for continuation of the westerlies:

post-14819-0-08719700-1386785726_thumb.p In fact the anomaly is so strong it has to be symptomatic of a poor outlook.

Feb and March are similarly poor with again the US being forecast to get a very cold Winter:

post-14819-0-90835800-1386785937_thumb.p

Obviously the CFS pattern sucks; but it is only the CFS, however I would still like to see something more promising.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...

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