Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[Mucka]

A progressive 12z with less energy going South, could be a very mild and wet FI.

 

Possibly but with that jet profile more probable outcome MLB essentially dry for the South and East though possibly milder and more unsettled in the North and WQest at times.

 

[JCP]

Pretty dreadful outlook in the medium term with high pressure becoming banked over Europe steering up mild southerlies for most away from the far south-east of the UK. Outlook rather poor for cold searchers this evening. -- Main event in short term, with a significant wind event for Thursday with risk of widespread gusts to 70mph with some extreme gusts to 90mph possible in parts.

Have you ever seen the build up to a Scandinavian High before? This is what often happens synoptically where the winds are mild southerlies for a time until they move gradually east of south.At this time of year, once any winds come from the continent, we'll start to cool down.

[MR EXTREMES]

I don't agree I think the gfs up till t144 is ok then it goes down hill but as nick sussex suggested the right tilt on the high pressure and lows then slide se into Europe allowing a better easterly the gfs is almost there in its later trends.

 

as for the ukmo very good ukmo I believe much better than the gfs now lets see what the ecm decides might be worth hiding with frosty behind the sofa the gefs has a fantastic run looks good for cold on this model atmosphere really starting to shift about a lot going on.

 

might be worth checking out where the mjo is heading.

 

also worth noting that the gfs 12z has heights futher southeast on this run but the 6z looked very close to scandi block so I do really think the gfs is a model to watch up until t144 along with ukmo ecm later.

Edited December 3, 2013 by emotional rollercoaster

[Matty M]

Have you ever seen the build up to a Scandinavian High before? This is what often happens synoptically where the winds are mild southerlies for a time until they move gradually east of south.At this time of year, once any winds come from the continent, we'll start to cool down.

I have rarely seen it develop, i have seen the outcome progged on models but when it comes to it,  if the high does retrogress it is generally positioned to far east to bring any significant cold. Perhaps something into southeast England corner but more often than not this is still very dry with limited snow potential.

 

Of course there has been occasions where a nice easterly flow has developed.

 

But i know from my near 10 years on here that these types of easterly chases rarely end up in the Champagne being cracked open.

 

Much more chance of a successful cold spell hunt with a nice Greenland high.

Edited December 3, 2013 by Matty M

[nick sussex]

The GFS is flatter and the tilt of that troughing is poor as the energy spills over the top, the UKMO is better although it hasn't developed that low in Canada at 144hrs, it does look like it will though after 144hrs.

 

If the ECM looks more like the UKMO downstream at 144hrs and has that Canadian Low then it should keep the interest going. Regardless of recent ECM misfires when it comes to European blocking patterns its far superior to the GFS, remember the UKMO is the decider here not the GFS. If the ECM and UKMO stick together then the GFS will cave in.

[frosty ground]

A progressive 12z with less energy going South, could be a very mild and wet FI.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.pngOr dry and average away from the extream westThen againhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.png

Edited December 3, 2013 by frosty ground

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

 UKMO view (just chatted with them) remains as before: i.e. for Scandinavian block to establish after next week's milder (for some, notably so) phase and a progressively colder return from SE/E thereafter.

Very interesting.

Excellent news for thos esp on the SE

 

I'll not concern my self with GFS 12Z at all when the pro's are making 'cold' noises

Goodness me the jets is that strong its into Western Russia on GFS 12Z,bin it!

Edited December 3, 2013 by happy days

[Tim Bland]

It looks like (from what Ian tells us) that the models will look very different for the middle of the month in a few days!  Heres to chasing the magic Beasterly... And watching the lampost for a sigle flake

[JCP]

GFS blows up the odd superstorm or three in FI so no luck this time.....well until the 18z when it can have another go with its RPG (random pressure generator).

[Mucka]

Would that be due to nice the vacum towards Swenden / Finland way for the our high to slip into, whereby on the gfs there is more low presure in the way of high ridging north east.

Well in general terms there is a better SW/NE axis of our ridge (steeper/more amplified) which is what we want and the pattern is also less progressive (further West - also better) and the trough to the East through Eastern Europe is better defined with low pressure further West and running more South than Southeast as with GFS. (we need that low to draw in the cold later and hopefully support a Scandi High - at best it will tighten the isobars and move back West later (FI) providing snow) 

 

A lot of projection there and a lot of other things need to fall in place but you get the idea of how it is better and what to look for hopefully.

I'm sure SM can do one of his top posts complete with illustrations and explain it much better terms than I can.

Edited December 3, 2013 by Mucka

[Ian Brown]

Very interesting.

Excellent news for thos esp on the SE

 

Always good to have the view from Ian F, but a Scandinavian block is most unlikely from the synoptic set-up we find ourselves next week even if the GFS 12z is wrong. The High may migrate Northward but that can only be temporary with the jet over the top.

[Frosty.]

Apart from the far western and northern extremities of the uk, there is nothing mild showing on the Gfs 12z op run through the weekend or into the first half of next week, temps recover somewhat but only to mid range single digits celsius and cold at night with increasing risk of fog as winds fall light, more unsettled across the northwest corner of the uk as weak fronts brush around the top of the anticyclone across n.ireland and scotland in particular through the weekend and more particularly during next week but the further south and east you are, staying  relatively colder and dry with frost and fog patches, much as the latest met office update today but then the 12z shows milder and more unsettled weather spreading in from the atlantic later next week with temps closer to 10-11c.

[Mucka]

GFS blows up the odd superstorm or three in FI so no luck this time.....well until the 18z when it can have another go with its RPG (random pressure generator).

 

 

Yup, never underestimate how progressive GFS can be in FI (note to self) - this only took 24 hours.

 

 

 

GEM 120 again flatter than this mornings output

 

 

UKMO looks to be the model to follow for the moment.

Edited December 3, 2013 by Mucka

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Guy's guys guys just cos the meto are currently thinking it will turn much colder from mid month doesn't mean to say 1 it will happen and 2 they won't change there minds come this time next week. Its very exciting of course to hear potential cold and snowy updates but don't pin all your hopes on mid-month as if it doesn't materialise there will be a lot of very un-happy bunnies. Just relax and enjoy each day as it comes otherwise you end up wishing your life away.

 

Mid-term the weather looks as dull as dishwater with HP South of the UK.

Edited December 3, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Frosty.]

Guy's guys guys just cos the meto are currently thinking it will turn much colder from mid month doesn't mean to say 1 it will happen and 2 they won't change there minds come this time next week. Its very exciting of course to hear potential cold and snowy updates but don't pin all your hopes on mid-month as if it doesn't materialise there will be a lot of very un-happy bunnies. Just relax and enjoy each day as it comes otherwise you end up wishing your life away.

 

Mid-term the weather looks as dull as dishwater with HP South of the UK.

Thankfully I have more faith, a lot more faith in anything the met office say than a gfs default to zonal mush pattern which almost seems pre programmed.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Thankfully I have more faith, a lot more faith in anything the met office say than a gfs default to zonal mush pattern which almost seems pre programmed.

 

 

So do I, but how many times over the years have we seen meteo updates change for the worse!!! Exactly lots. Just saying!!!!

Edited December 3, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Tim Bland]

 

UKMO seems to be the model to follow for the moment.

 

Why? becuase its the only one with any hope for coldies   in all seriousness the models are all over the place hinting for the ocrrect patern change after next weeks mild spell. Im just happy that the Metoffice think there is a good chance of a scandi high giving an Easterly in a couple of weeks. Hopefully in a few days the models will start to reflect this

[TSNWK]

Well in general terms there is a better SW/NE axis of our ridge (steeper/more amplified) which is what we want and the pattern is also less progressive (further West - also better) and the trough to the East through Eastern Europe is better defined with low pressure further West and running more South than Southeast as with GFS. (we need that low to draw in the cold later and hopefully support a Scandi High - at best it will tighten the isobars and move back West later (FI) providing snow) 

 

A lot of projection there and a lot of other things need to fall in place but you get the idea of how it is better and what to look for hopefully.

I'm sure SM can do one of his top posts complete with illustrations and explain it much better terms than I can.

Thank you  for the explanation. Nice little hobby this weather watching and learning all the time. Thames Streamer North West Kent

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Always good to have the view from Ian F, but a Scandinavian block is most unlikely from the synoptic set-up we find ourselves next week even if the GFS 12z is wrong. The High may migrate Northward but that can only be temporary with the jet over the top.

As ever we'll see Ian.

At this juncture i would tend to agree with you but lets be honest here if i were a betting man and the horses where you me and Exeter i think my money would be on Exeter.

[The PIT]

I'm thinking a few people will have snow coming through there roofs after Thursday. Not many windows for the roofers to get on the roof either afterwards. After this weekend temps look generally on the mild side of average.

[pad199207]

Matt Hugo on Twitter:

 

"CFSv2 supports EC32 in terms of pressure patterns with a really strong signal for high pressure to the N/NE of the UK"

 

Edited December 3, 2013 by pad199207

[johnholmes]

Always good to have the view from Ian F, but a Scandinavian block is most unlikely from the synoptic set-up we find ourselves next week even if the GFS 12z is wrong. The High may migrate Northward but that can only be temporary with the jet over the top.

Interesting point of view Ian but not totally shown on the 500mb outlooks, although of course they do not show the jet stream but do give an idea of where the strongest winds at 500mb are predicted to be, see below

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

It is not yet a done deal but I suspect is more likely in % terms than what the 12z shows for the time scale 144-240h or more, say 6-10 days or so, especially the further into that time scale.

It will be interesting to see if the weight of scientific (meteorological) evidence turns out correct aginst the 12z GFS.

 

Further to your comment about the jet=if the jet becomes aligned more south-north then that will tend to build the upper ridge not push through it which is what the anomaly charts are trying to show I suspect?

Edited December 3, 2013 by johnholmes

[Smiler1709]

Guy's guys guys just cos the meto are currently thinking it will turn much colder from mid month doesn't mean to say 1 it will happen and 2 they won't change there minds come this time next week. Its very exciting of course to hear potential cold and snowy updates but don't pin all your hopes on mid-month as if it doesn't materialise there will be a lot of very un-happy bunnies. Just relax and enjoy each day as it comes otherwise you end up wishing your life away. Mid-term the weather looks as dull as dishwater with HP South of the UK.

But it's quite rare for the met to be forecasting this, it's not like the express have been telling us. I think these updates are massively encouraging. Normally the met are very cautious when it comes to long range forecasting

[Matty M]

Just so people realise, the EC 32 day forecast model is virtually experimental, forecasts at week 3 and 4 are pretty much the same as climatology. IE they have no skill. Occasionally they can show some skill, an example being the cold spell in 2010,but this was a exception to the rule. 

[SE Blizzards]

After viewing todays GFS 12Z from a coldies perspective one would be forgiven for reaching for the medicine cupboard, but alas, Ian F has given the UKMO's take on how some sort of blocking pattern 'could' become established later on this month. So for now at least, the prozac is staying firmly locked away. 

 

GEM 12Z finishes with +14 uppers  

 

Here's hoping for a much better ECM in an hour's time.

Edited December 3, 2013 by SE Blizzards