Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[lorenzo]

Welcome to Winter GFS.

[Snowman.]

Hold on little feature in the North sea.

 

[snowfish1]

I don't see much to be that excited about in the charts, is it just me? I mean it's looking good for a day or so cold snap before high pressure builds again from the west and temperatures return to normal or just below.I think we are pretty much stuck in a mid-latitude blocking situation until something significant changes, I certainly don't see any prolonged cold in the next two to three weeks.

Perhaps from imby point of view the south rarely does well out of this northerly set up. It takes time to get going and by the time the cold/precip reaches our part of the world, it's all over!! Still Thurs to Sunday feeling cold but I don't relish cold rain!

[nick sussex]

It might be short but certainly the upper air temps are impressive for this northerly. A small upgrade in the GFS 06hrs run so we're edging now towards agreement on this. Snow wise there does look to be more nw/n in the flow so the usual suspects look to get the most fun.

There looks to be a small kink in the flow so perhaps we might see a front clearing se with some snow on the backedge.

[tight isobar]

Nice if slight westward corrections on northerly blast gfs...she got there...eventually!

[Snowman.]

Hold on little feature in the North sea.

 

 

 

Needs watching.

 

 

IF its been modelled to far east then that could deliver some decent precip.

[tight isobar]

Hold on little feature in the North sea.

 

yes little develop there, could be intresting...

[Polar Maritime]

A little pocket of -13 uppers showing on the East Coast, Yes Chio welcome to winter !

 

Edited December 1, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Ian Brown]

Thursday is going to be an interesting day as the 528 DAM line sweeps south easterwards.Plenty of precip about i wouyld imagine rain turning to snow as the day goes on with places with decent elevation 200m could see some accumulations.

 

The PPN will be rain HD on the frontal boundary, then the snow showers will start to pack into Scotland.

[Snowman.]

The PPN will be rain HD on the frontal boundary, then the snow showers will start to pack into Scotland.

 

 

Back edge stuff here.

 

 

 

Also wales looking at a stream of showers lasting up to 24 hours with 1-2 cm an hour.

 

Looking very nice for the western part of the country eastern parts could also see some then scotland bears the front of the blast.

Edited December 1, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Frosty.]

I don't see much to be that excited about in the charts, is it just me? I mean it's looking good for a day or so cold snap before high pressure builds again from the west and temperatures return to normal or just below.

I think we are pretty much stuck in a mid-latitude blocking situation until something significant changes, I certainly don't see any prolonged cold in the next two to three weeks.

Depends where you live, people in areas most exposed to the Northerly gales / snow showers such as the n.isles, n & e scotland, ne, e & se england should be smiling this benign am.

Edited December 1, 2013 by Frosty.

[Ian Brown]

 

Ian B 

I take it the chart you posted re very poor set up going forward has updated and didn't show this????

 

BFTP

 

I accept that there has been a shift this morning to blocking hints out East, but without relaxing or retreating of those deep blues and purples to the NW, then you can't get such a High to influence the UK, unless the Atlantic energy then starts to go South.

[Summer Sun]

GFS is still pushing the high across a lot quicker than ECM

 

 

 

Snow as far south as the IOW possibly

 

Edited December 1, 2013 by Summer Sun

[nick sussex]

GFS 96 06 z is finally there...All the way around to the ECM - its only taken 5 days.....Watch a very quick shift in the next 18 hours of the gfs ensembles and watch much quicker the scandi heights suddenly appear....From this fiasco of the gfs if you look at ensemble watch the worst run has been the12z gfs which has been flat and wayyyyy to far east- which underpins the assessment of it having a strong eastward bias.I do and explain the rationale and what it all means- I guess people just ignore it.S

Good post Steve and certainly your last paragraph should be pinned to the thread. The eastward bias is well documented by NOAA, for newbies this is actually their own model, so if they can state its too progressive then that should ring warning bells!

[stratty]

yes little develop there, could be intresting...

.........is that the feature mentioned earlier coinciding with the high tides?

[Snowman.]

.........is that the feature mentioned earlier coinciding with the high tides?

I believe so looking at the iso bars they are quite tight little something for the SE as that's when its closest inland if there is any precip falling as snow it could be quite severe but unlikely to last long.

 

 

Well into FI now but we should continue to look NE.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The PPN will be rain HD on the frontal boundary, then the snow showers will start to pack into Scotland.

ECM has snow across many parts thursday evening.

[TSNWK]

Has the topple stopped around 168. 1035 heights a little further north then previous frame

[Snowman.]

Ridging NE.

 

[lorenzo]

Fergieweather mentioned the shades of '53, not an event I was aware of, this is a good find in our Regional Thread by Blitzen on that evolution, with Wetter archive Gif. Update, thanks to GU Weather, Blitzen had lifted this from an overnight post in here.

 

Original charts.

Edited December 1, 2013 by lorenzo

[Cloud 10]

Finally,the GFS staggers onboard!

 

yesterday 06z..  today 06z..

[Snowman.]

Very cold still max by at 1pm next sunday.

 

Edited December 1, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[topher41]

Morning all I'm not a poster on here just a lurker. have been for the past 3 years I don't post as I feel I still have a lot to learn and would just rather take it all in and evaluate. However what does bother me is the way some posters on here say such things as no sign of anything cold for 2-3 weeks ect cmon people not one of you can say anything is nailed one way or the other 5-6 days away let alone a fortnight or more. weather is weather and will do as it pleases and not please you're will

Edited December 1, 2013 by topher41

[Snowman.]

Continuing to build...

 

[TSNWK]

Yep heights are building a little over Scandinavia.. Looks like a cool rather than cold drift, but little steps and all that I guess and certainly appears to be today's trend after the northerly.