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Roger J Smith

December 2013 CET forecasts -- 2013/14 Competition

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Yesterday was 6.9C.

 

Minimum today is 6.0C while maxima look like reaching about 12.0C, so an increase to 6.7 or 6.8C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

6.8C to the 14th (6.9)

6.9C to the 15th (8.9)

7.0C to the 16th (9.0)

6.8C to the 17th (3.3)

6.6C to the 18th (3.2)

6.6C to the 19th (5.8]

6.5C to the 20th (5.7)

 

Looks like the CET will hit its peak on the 16th, followed by some slightly below average days. Most cool days forecast haven't materialised so far this month though.

 

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6.6C

 

Have a feeling that the MLB we currently see will eventually sink south east into continental Europe. this will open the door for a westerly or south westerly mobile regime. High minima would be the driving factor if this above average prediction were to verify.

Happy with my guess and the methodology behind it - so far!

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Sunny Sheffield at 6.8C surprised the CET zone isn't even higher.

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Another rise today up-to 6.9c now 2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 And set to go higher tomorrow. Been busy so I haven't done one of these for a while, but we have ensembles to the end of month now so: Min today of 6.5, and max likely around 12.0 Should see the CET rise to 7.1 tomorrow.After that it is likely to fall again for a while. Met ofice forecasts for 5 days and then GFS 6Z ensemble mean gives 16th  7.1 (9.3)   +2.2 anomoly (61-90)  +2.1 (81-10)17th  7.0 (4.8 )18th  6.9 (6.1)19th  6.8 (5.8 )20th  6.8  (4.9) 25th 6.6   +1.8 (61-90) +1.9   (81-10) 31st  6.3 +1.7 (61-90)  & (81-10) So pretty much certain for a well above average month at this point.Possible range seems to be around  (5.2 - 7.2)

Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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Well it looks like the Decembers of the 2010s are once again going the same way as the 1970s and 1980s Decembers.  After a great start with the very cold December 2010 (like 1981) a stinker has followed with a very mild 2011 and 2013 (like 1988).

Edited by Craig Evans
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Well it looks like the Decembers of the 2010s are once again going the same way as the 1970s and 1980s Decembers.  After a great start with the very cold December 2010 (like 1981) a stinker has followed with a very mild 2011 and 2013 (like 1988).

2011 was quite mild, but its first two thirds were quite wintry on high ground in the Peak District with 12+ days of transient snowfall and temporary accumulations. 2013 on the other hand has been awful.

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Going by the climate-uk figures Oct/Nov/Dec is going to come out significantly warmer than Mar/April/May, unless there's a big cold snap coming; even if Dec goes down to 5C it will be about 1.2 warmer. Dec needs to be under 2C for it to come out colder.

 

2006 and 1986 seem like the only other occurrences recently, and they were by much less.

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Min today of 2.6C while maxima look like reaching about 10C, so we'll probably remain on 6.9C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

6.8C to the 19th (4.8]

6.7C to the 20th (4.9)

6.8C to the 21st (9.3)

6.8C to the 22nd (5.7)

6.8C to the 23rd (7.2)

6.9C to the 24th (8.7)

6.8C to the 25th (5.2)

 

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Sunny Sheffield 6.8C after a brief few days flirting higher

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6.9 to the 18th.

 

+2.1 (61-90) +2.0 (81-10)

 

Min today of 3.3 and max around 7.0 , tomorrow shold fall to 6.8

 

 

Met office forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0Z ensemble mean after gives.

 

19th  6.8 (5.2)

20th  6.7 (4.9)

21st  6.8 (8.7) 

22nd 6.8 (6.0)

23rd  6.8 (6.6)   +1.9 (61-90)  + 2.0 (81-10)

...

25th  6.6 

...

30th 6.1

31st 6.0   +1.4 (61-90) & (81-10)

 

So cooler end than a few days ago, but still trending to a well above average month. Likely range is probably 5.4 - 6.8, before corrections.

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With a min today of 1.5C and maxima likely to reach close to 8C, so a drop to 6.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

6.8C to the 21st (8.8]

6.8C to the 22nd (5.5)

6.7C to the 23rd (5.8]

6.7C to the 24th (5.2)

6.5C to the 25th (1.9)

6.3C to the 26th (2.4)

6.3C to the 27th (6.9)

Edited by BornFromTheVoid

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With a min today of 1.5C and maxima likely to reach close to 8C, so a drop to 6.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

6.8C to the 21st (8.8]

6.8C to the 22nd (5.5)

6.7C to the 23rd (5.8]

6.7C to the 24th (5.2)

6.5C to the 25th (1.9)

6.3C to the 26th (2.4)

6.3C to the 27th (6.9)

 

Yes my method gives something slightly higher (6.5 to the 27th) - not being quite so cold on the 25/26th.  

 

Generally though the trend is stil to decline from here to around 6.1 - 6.2 by end of month.

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Yes my method gives something slightly higher (6.5 to the 27th) - not being quite so cold on the 25/26th.  

 

Generally though the trend is stil to decline from here to around 6.1 - 6.2 by end of month.

 

I think some of the cool temps around xmas are influenced by snow and cloud cover forecasts, so it wouldn't take much to change them.

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Minimum today of 5.3C with maxima likely to reach around 7C, so the CET should drop to 6.8C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

6.8C to the 23rd (6.5)

6.8C to the 24th (5.3)

6.6C to the 25th (3.9)

6.5C to the 26th (3.7)

6.5C to the 27th (6.4)

6.5C to the 28th (5.8]

6.4C to the 29th (3.8]

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The Iberian Express has gone off the rails, I knew there was something wrong with that southerly flow of arctic air Craig.

 

Go 5.9 !!

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