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Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.


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Hmm if you have nothing else to look forward to in recent outputs then have a look at this... http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013112106/gfsnh-10-384.png?6what a very very strong vortex in the places we dont want it? Or a warming thats 1:never gonna happen . Or 2: the fact the warming is in the wrong place?! Obviously its in the VERY FAR reaches of FI but its something to look forward to if you have nothing else to look at.

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It is a forecast of a bit of warming in the strat - a long way out but if you remember, this chart (at +384) from last year was the harbinger of great things further down the line.

 

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Its a fairly bog standard chart to be honest.check the latitude where the warmer temps are!!

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Terrific run to run consistency in the GFS now and an overwhelming sense that things have turned extremely grim all of a sudden.

 

Appears we are about to watch a slow car-crash of our early winter cold prospects, however it is only after mid November and a whole winter to go.

 

But we are set to move from a position where things had potential to a position 7-10days down the road of having a nightmareish set-up!

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Terrific run to run consistency in the GFS now and an overwhelming sense that things have turned extremely grim all of a sudden. Appears we are about to watch a slow car-crash of our early winter cold prospects, however it is only after mid November and a whole winter to go. But we are set to move from a position where things had potential to a position 7-10days down the road of having a nightmareish set-up!

Which should tell you that it is possible to move back again.
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Terrific run to run consistency in the GFS now and an overwhelming sense that things have turned extremely grim all of a sudden.

 

Appears we are about to watch a slow car-crash of our early winter cold prospects, however it is only after mid November and a whole winter to go.

 

But we are set to move from a position where things had potential to a position 7-10days down the road of having a nightmareish set-up!

 

Yes, that's the fun of model watching.

 

A week ago, Frosty and Steve Murr (for example) were saying EPIC, BOOM, BANK etc, because that is indeed what many of the model runs said.  It was all 2010 again.  Guess what?  It didn't happen.  Although zonal charts tend to be a bit more reliable than very cold ones, nevertheless things can and do change very quickly.

 

Who's to say that FI can't be built on so that we start to get cold synotics nearer the reliable time frame in the next few days?  The reality is that nobody knows what the weather will be like after next weekend, beyond the vaguest teleconnective hints that are so often wrong.

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The low at t288 north of the UK is further south on the 12z run from GFS

 

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All down to the high pressure now a battle would commence its a case of who would win

 

For most it looks like the high will win the battle Scotland would be a bit more unsettled

 

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Slightly cooler

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted (edited) · Hidden by Joe Levy, November 21, 2013 - I can't work out how to delete my post!
Hidden by Joe Levy, November 21, 2013 - I can't work out how to delete my post!

That doesn't matter too much. The key matter is if that warming then extends to higher latitudes i.e. Siberia

Its a fairly bog standard chart to be honest.check the latitude where the warmer temps are!!

Edited by Joe Levy
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Which should tell you that it is possible to move back again.

Yes indeed but i'd say with this slow toppling of the high and tightening up of the PV/lack of amplification in the flow. We can write off the next 15-20days.

Edited by Matty M
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I agree on this day in 62

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Then late November

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Then dec 10th 62

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So having a high floating around like around on charts at the moment carn't be a bad thing at all. Like said few post ago better than zonal .

Never know dec 62 might just make a visit lol

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Imagine the model thread in melt down writing off the winter of 62/63, as the route from that set up would be weeks of Zonal.

Oh wait.

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November 2010 was a one off, if we want proper cold winter weather , we are better hoping that something happens mid December onwards anyway, sea temps also will be lower then which will aid any cold that may come our way.

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Hmm if you have nothing else to look forward to in recent outputs then have a look at this... http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013112106/gfsnh-10-384.png?6what a very very strong vortex in the places we dont want it? Or a warming thats 1:never gonna happen . Or 2: the fact the warming is in the wrong place?! Obviously its in the VERY FAR reaches of FI but its something to look forward to if you have nothing else to look at.

 

That would filter through as a wet and windy Christmas eve.

 

 

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Imagine the model thread in melt down writing off the winter of 62/63, as the route from that set up would be weeks of Zonal.Oh wait.

Haha yes .not to different to from now .? High around or on top of uk .
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