South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 04/11/13

[Mark Neal.]

Morning all! Still some interesting ensembles this morning. So expect more options for John to show off some ramps later

[Sprites]

Those charts would suggest an indian autumn, Kent may get some hail and thunder today.

[Mark Neal.]

Those charts would suggest an indian autumn, Kent may get some hail and thunder today.

That's because the overnight run updated changing the charts which John posted around midnight. A chilly start here down to 1.7c under clear skies, a smittering of a frost here.

[Steve C]

Morning all.

Mostly clear with some high cloud here.

It's quite funny seeing how much JP's ramp charts change overnight. It's all looking nice and benign there!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Morning all,

Well.. It's Friday!!! That can only mean one thing... WEEKEND!!!!!!!!!

I'm thinking.. Chinese mulled wine and for laters irish cream and chocolate tonight with the girlfriend.. What.. I'm not buying my love ;)

[Coast]

Morning all! 

 

Morning all.

 

Morning Mark and Steve, morning all.

 

Inevitably, more rain on the cards today:

 

 

and an awful lot more tomorrow, especially for Sussex & South Kent again:

 

 

Interesting convective thought from Met O tomorrow morning over Lewes (not far from where I'll be):

 

 

Wet weather clothes and a camera then tomorrow.

 

GFS lifted index on the free atmosphere chart for London doesn't show an incouraging figure, but the TT index is up there. Maybe something to consider this weekend in amongst the wet.

 

Edited November 8, 2013 by Coast

[chilly milly]

Morning all.  4.6c here this morning which is the coldest so far this autumn here.  Looking bright outside but not planning on doing much. Dog walk and then friends over for coffee this morning.

 

Have a great day everyone.

[Captain Shortwave]

Morning

Nice start to the day, time to get this customer service exam over with, shouldn't be too difficult.

[Atlantis]

Morning all

A chilly start to the day here. Was 1.6 when I got up at 6.30. Very calm at the moment,suspect it is the calm before the storm for our area Coast? Looks like it's going to be rather wet in our area of East Sussex over the next 24/48 hours.

Oh well, back to the welllies and rain coats again! Even the dog is getting fed up with going out in it!

On another note, have noticed the bird's starting to eat all the berries on the Rowan trees and Cotoneasta - do they know something we don't?

[Coast]

NMM rain for tomorrow;

 

 

 

No warning for rain out from Met O though yet. 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

NMM rain for tomorrow;

 

 

 

No warning for rain out from Met O though yet. 

 

 

 

I think we will see one though coast check out what the NAE wants.. I find the NAE to be very very good in PPN at short notice..

Bang on if you check the radar...

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

Then the heavens open over us..

 

 

Hold tight Norwich looks wet!

 

Then Saturday rinse and repeat excuse the pun..

#

 

[alexisj9]

Got down to just 6 over night, now 10 already.

[snow raven]

Absolutely, it's a beast .....

image.jpg

.....currently packing sustained winds at 190 mph and gusting at 230 mph

 It certainly puts the storm we had a couple of Monday's ago into perspective, that's for sure!

 

Morning all,

 

Knackered is the word to describe how I feel this morning - so pleased it's Friday and I can have a bit of a lay-in tomorrow   

Weather is a tad on the chilly side this morning, but at least it's dry - for now!

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

hit 0.9C overnight. second coldest night so far. looks wet later as I'm driving home from Weybridge

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all,

 

Very chilly start to the day here (3 deg c at 7am) and the first icy windscreen of the season to be scraped but lucky for me Mr P did it...well he had a lift to work for his early shift 

 

 

...........the sky was waving a ribbon first thing this morning to say TGIF  

 

Still cold here...just checked the weather station and it's 6 deg c

Edited November 8, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[RUSH]

mornnig all

 

 

cold and damp start here in kt3 this morn,hopefully get ever thing done before the rain arrives and its poets day woohaaa 

[Sprites]

That's because the overnight run updated changing the charts which John posted around midnight. A chilly start here down to 1.7c under clear skies, a smittering of a frost here.

Yes that is why the charts are often accurate upto 48hrs ahead or less!.

[Coast]

Warning for rain now out:

 

 

 

Issued at: 

1026 on Fri 8 Nov 2013

 

Valid from: 

1200 on Fri 8 Nov 2013

 

Valid to: 

2300 on Fri 8 Nov 2013

 

Areas of heavy rain will move east across southeastern parts of England during Friday afternoon, clearing eastwards during the evening.

 

The public should be aware of the risk of localised disruption due to surface water flooding.

An active trough of low pressure will move eastwards across the southern half of the UK during Friday, bringing areas of heavy rain and also the risk of strong winds or gales to exposed coastal parts of Sussex and Kent during the early evening. Despite the likelihood of some heavy rain across other central and southern parts of England at first, the main risk of localised surface water flooding is within the warning area, where 5-10 mm of rain is possible within an hour and locally 20-30 mm within 4 hours.

 

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1383868800

[alexisj9]

Warning for rain now out:

 

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1383868800

Wind is already getting up here.

[Coast]

Also a yellow warning for tomorrow:

 

 

Issued at: 

1034 on Fri 8 Nov 2013

 

Valid from: 

0900 on Sat 9 Nov 2013

 

Valid to: 

1600 on Sat 9 Nov 2013

 

Another area of heavy rain is likely to move east across southern parts of England during Saturday.

 

The public should be aware of the risk of localised disruption due to surface water flooding.

Showers are likely to merge into a 2-3 hour spell of heavy rain as an active trough moves eastwards during Saturday, with parts of southeast England at risk of 15-25 mm of rain falling within that time.

 

Local Authorities affected and associated warning levels

 

Brighton and Hove, East Sussex, Kent, Medway, Surrey, West Sussex, Isle of Wight, Hampshire, Portsmouth

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Caost, surrey is no where near that second warning lol! met office always do this -.-

[Coast]

Coast, Surrey is no where near that second warning lol! met office always do this -.-

 

Write to the Met O, I just copy and paste!!

[Coast]

Sussex will be hit by heavy rain and gale force winds today and tomorrow with more than 50mm of rain forecast to fall in two short bursts.

 

The Met Office has issued a yellow severe weather warning for Friday between midday and 11pm and Saturday between 9am and 4pm. On Friday there could be up to 30mm of rain locally falling in a four hour period. And tomorrow could see up to 25mm fall in a two to three hour spell of heavy rain. There is also a risk of gale force winds.

 

The Met Office's chief forecaster said: "An active trough of low pressure will move eastwards across the southern half of the UK during Friday, bringing areas of heavy rain and also the risk of strong winds or gales to exposed coastal parts of Sussex and Kent during the early evening. "Showers are likely to merge into a 2-3 hour spell of heavy rain as an active trough moves eastwards during Saturday, with parts of southeast England at risk of 15-25 mm of rain falling within that time."

http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/10796373.Severe_weather_warning_for_rain_across_south_east/

 

GFS Moisture transport vectors swirling in from the Atlantic on the jet then back up to SE England:

 

 

 

 

Although the 06z run showed it just clipping the South coast and staying mostly out to sea or  the extreme SE of Kent:

 

 

 

Likewise, NMM says further South and into The Channel:

 

 

Either way, I'm not risking it without wellies

 

Edited November 8, 2013 by Coast

[Snowangel-MK]

Afternoon all....the rain arrived bang on time here....my rain alarm went off just about midday 

 

Yellow Warning of Rain for London & South East England :

 

Bracknell Forest, Brighton and Hove, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Medway, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Slough, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham & Milton Keynes

 

Yellow Warning of Rain for East of England :

 

Bedford, Cambridgeshire, Central Bedfordshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Luton, Norfolk, Southend-on-Sea, Suffolk & Thurrock

 

Areas of heavy rain will move east across southeastern parts of England during Friday afternoon, clearing eastwards during the evening.

 

The public should be aware of the risk of localised disruption due to surface water flooding.

 

Issued at:

1026 on Fri 8 Nov 2013

 

Valid from:

1200 on Fri 8 Nov 2013

 

Valid to:

2300 on Fri 8 Nov 2013

 

An active trough of low pressure will move eastwards across the southern half of the UK during Friday, bringing areas of heavy rain and also the risk of strong winds or gales to exposed coastal parts of Sussex and Kent during the early evening.

 

Despite the likelihood of some heavy rain across other central and southern parts of England at first, the main risk of localised surface water flooding is within the warning area, where 5-10 mm of rain is possible within an hour and locally 20-30 mm within 4 hours.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=uk&from=rss&sn=0463DF3B-73AE-1A07-F457-37268B86B0BC_2_SE&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1383868800

[Snowangel-MK]

Another 2-3 hours of it to come on Saturday for the far south of our region topping you lot up with another 15-22mm of the wet stuff – oh well hope you all have a lovely weekend what ever your doing 

 

 

Yellow Warning of Rain for London & South East England :

 

Brighton and Hove, East Sussex, Kent, Medway, Surrey * , West Sussex, Isle of Wight, Hampshire & Portsmouth

 

Another area of heavy rain is likely to move east across southern parts of England during Saturday.

 

The public should be aware of the risk of localised disruption due to surface water flooding.

 

Issued at:

1034 on Fri 8 Nov 2013

 

Valid from:

0900 on Sat 9 Nov 2013

 

Valid to:

1600 on Sat 9 Nov 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&from=rss&sn=0463DF3B-73AE-1A07-F457-37268B86B0BC_2_SE&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1383955200

 

*removed to please Luke 

Edited November 8, 2013 by MKsnowangel