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JTWC have upgraded the winds to 170kts, gusting to 205kts!

 

That puts it stronger than Super Typhoon Tip. The highest verified windspeed of a typhoon/Hurricane was 190mph - Looks like we have a new record.

 

Those poor people in the Philippines..

Edited by Sainsbo
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JTWC have upgraded the winds to 170kts, gusting to 205kts!

 

That puts it stronger than Super Typhoon Tip. The highest verified windspeed of a typhoon/Hurricane was 190mph - Looks like we have a new record.

 

Those poor people in the Philippines..

I have a new epal in Manila, he says he has 'closed the windows and doors and picked the fruit in the garden ready'

Yikes I do worry for them all there.

B.

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Sustained 170kt winds! That's about 195mph.

 

Does anyone else think the estimated central pressure of 895mb is probably too high? Sub-900mb typhoons have been rare in the West Pacific in recent years but they used to be much more frequent (not sure why - the use of aircraft reconnaissance perhaps). Certainly with the wind field not being abnormally large I would expect a typhoon supporting winds of this strength to be threatening Tip's record of 870mb.

Edited by AderynCoch
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Sustained 170kt winds! That's about 195mph.

 

Does anyone else think the estimated central pressure of 895mb is probably too high? Sub-900mb typhoons have been rare in the West Pacific in recent years but they used to be much more frequent (not sure why - the use of aircraft reconnaissance perhaps). Certainly with the wind field not being abnormally large I would expect a typhoon supporting winds of this strength to be threatening Tip's record of 870mb.

 

An astonishing 862 mb on the noaa link http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2013/adt/text/HAIYAN_Y-list.txt . Hard to get an accurate figure without the physical observations that take place in hurricanes.

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A beautiful but scary image:

 

post-1820-0-78934500-1383855626_thumb.jp

 

And I can't believe this thing has sustained winds of 170kts!! It's almost like Haiyan needs another category! And I strongly suspect the pressure is lower than 895mb!

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Can't believe people are chasing that! Posted Image

In their defense, a couple of days ago it was only forecast to make landfall as a cat 3 or 4, not something that should be a category 6 if it existed. :p

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Some crazy imagery on Twitter right now.

 

This loop is spell binding a real jaw dropper.

 

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/131107_coms1_ir_haiyan_anim.gif

 

Looks like the eye's just about to brush the southeastern tip of Samar. The northern eyewall (containing the strongest winds) will be hammering the south of island at the moment.

 

You can also clearly see how annular the core has become (as alluded to by the JTWC), though I'd hesitate to call the typhoon truly annular until all the outer rainbands disappear. I don't think I've ever seen an annular tropical cyclone make landfall, as they're usually far out to sea (though that might be due to the fact that they're rare beasts anyway).

Edited by AderynCoch
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Landfall has occured on Eastern Samar according to PAGASA just now. Haiyan looks to remain a cat 5 well into the island group of the Philippines, as it is going to take a lot of land interaction to cause Haiyan to significantly decay.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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So impressive... But also so dangerous...

I'm out of words to describe this perfect monster. 

 

The imagery below shows the maximal potential intensity of Tropical Cyclones. If the pressure is indeed below 900 hPa, then Haiyan is above its maximum potential intensity, according to this graph. This storm is almost going beyond the borders of nature.

 

Posted Image

 

The satellite trends (CIMSS) also show a monstrous intensity, although not as high as analyzed by the JTWC:

Posted Image

Current intesity estimates of SATCON do reach 170 knots... But a pressure below 900 hPa has not been analyzed by these estimates. This could be because, as stated above, the intensity, as well as MSLP, go above/below the range of satellite intensity estimates.

 

Also interesting to note is that the core of Haiyan extends to above the 100 hPa level, which is usually the level of the lower stratosphere.

Posted Image

 

And finally, to show the perfectness of the system, MIMIC imagery from CIMSS.

Posted Image

I've never seen such a circular, strong and well defined eyewall completely wrapped around the center in this imagery. There is no sign of an EWRC starting to occur, unfortunately. This once again shows what kind of monster we're dealing with...

 

Let's pray for the people in the Philippines, and hope they will stay safe.

 

Sources:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2013_31W/webManager/last24hrs.gif

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/amsu/archive/2013/201331W/201331W1107_1726_ch7.gif

Edited by Vorticity0123
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