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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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I've been comparing this winter to the previous seven up to the end of the first week of January and it really is redefining the term "write-off". The mild minima and lack of frost are astonishing even compared to the similarly snowless winters of 2006/07, 2007/08 and 2011/12. Not only is it the worst in terms of wintery weather but it's also the dullest as well. A really awful winter from all conceivable viewpointsPosted Image 

 

Data for each winter up to 7th January:

 

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This doesn't include any frosts or snow prior to 1st December. November had 7 air frosts, 1 day of lying snow and low of -2.0C.

Edited by Richard2901
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I've been comparing this winter to the previous seven up to the end of the first week of January and it really is redefining the term "write-off". The mild minima and lack of frost are astonishing even compared to the similarly snowless winters of 2006/07, 2007/08 and 2011/12. Not only is it the worst in terms of wintery weather but it's also the dullest as well. A really awful winter from all conceivable viewpointsPosted Image 

 

Data for each winter up to 7th January:

 

Posted Image

 

This doesn't include any frosts or snow prior to 1st December. November had 7 air frosts, 1 day of lying snow and low of -2.0C.

 

Yes, although we haven't had any exceptionally mild temperatures so far this Winter, I'm inclined to say it has been the worst since 1988/89.  The main reason being as mentioned above a total lack of frost and the consistency of the mild weather.  At least those other mild Winters had some variability with some cold anti-cyclonic snaps giving some decent frosts.  I think I only had to scrape the windscreen once during December!  All we have since mid-December is wind and rain.  I don't mind this for a few days but it gets very dull after a while, especially when it's gone on for this long.  I must admit I cannot get excited about any cold prospects next week at the moment.  Lets hope this will change very soon!

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In sharp contrast to the weather in North America, a heatwave has hit parts of South America with temperatures in Rio de Janeiro around the mid-30 Celsius.

 

Louise Lear has the details and explains why the United Kingdom wont be enduring the record breaking freezing conditions experienced in North America as the air mass crosses the Atlantic on it's way to Europe.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25658951

 

 

Are you Brian Gaze in disguise? 

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Oooo errrr Winte rmaybe back on hold again. Models hiccuping time to panic. Snow shovel companies go bust.

 

Hi there if you dont mind me asking, where are you getting this information from ? because the latest runs have been the most promising in weeks for a cold spell with snow.

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Also the cold airmass forecasted for next week is from the NE not crossing the atlantic from the USA at all, its pretty obvious that the UK is not going to experience windchill factors into the -60's C, very poor from Louise there.

 

It may be obvious to those who are interested or at all knowledgeable about the weather, but a surprising number of people won't have a clue and may see the reports from the US, or perhaps more likely hear about it by word of mouth and it becomes rumoured that it's on its way here. You only have to watch the BBC forecasts nowadays - there are often more placenames than weather symbols because many people don't know where they live or other places relative to the map.

Then again, are these people likely to be watching this video on the BBC site?

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The Manchester wintry index is just 2 at the moment. It got to 20 for winter 1988-89, it was a mere 1 by the end of that January, which shows there was a bit more wintry weather during that February.

90 years ago today, the Atlantic did undercut a NE European high bringing snow

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Another potential fail for James Madden coming up if the models are right this morning 2 days ago he posted this

 

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No doubt he'll try and snatch a victory from the jaws of defeat.
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Another potential fail for James Madden coming up if the models are right this morning 2 days ago he posted this

 

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I second that.

 

I actually visited his facebook page and noticed there is a cult thing going on there. Not one of his followers defends his ability, just defends his passion for the weather. Well one of my dogs has a passion for chewing loose tree bark. I guess my dog is a forestry expert.

 

I will predict -80c vostok research station low for East Anglia in February. I will also pedict a Congo +50c scorcher for East Anglia in August. That is passion. Is it realistic no.

 

Infact much to my annoyance. I am only expecting one frost here in January and will it snow on that day? No its a clear sky. About one and half weeks away. As for February. The first half will be just like January. Quote me if I am wrong later

Edited by hollowbaron
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If February 

 

No doubt he'll try and snatch a victory from the jaws of defeat.

 

If February is like January. I hope that will be a nail in the coffin that should have been closed a long time ago. Only good thing I guess is that my relatives think I am some kind of mystic for always proving the newspapers wrong everytime. So I should be grateful for that.

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Latest from James Madden

 

This evening through to Monday will see some quite heavy snow showers developing across parts of Scotland, in particular, in parts of northern and western Scotland and also to lower levels. It will also turn rather cold in the evenings throughout this weekend and there is currently a Met Office warning in place for widespread ice throughout this evening and into Saturday for large parts of the country, due to the recent excessive rainfall amounts and a sudden dip in temperatures. There is also likely to be some snow showers developing across certain parts of northern England at times throughout this period, especially in some parts of the North Pennines and Yorkshire regions.
 
The remainder of next week is then likely to see some widely scattered snow showers developing in amongst rain across parts of Scotland and northern England to begin with, the heaviest and most significant snow will be across parts of the far north/Scotland. Some of these wintry showers are also likely to extend to certain parts of Wales and Northern Ireland at times (non-significant).
 
It will also begin to feel much colder in the evenings with the development of frosts, especially in the northern half of the country. However, daytime temperatures may actually not fair to badly in some places to begin with at times throughout next week, in particular, in some parts to the south of the country. The latter part of next week will bring the risk of the most significant and widespread snow showers across the country, especially in some parts of the north and east (inc Ireland), and potentially in some parts further south later, where it may also turn particularly windy once again.
 
So from around Thursday onwards it is likely to turn markedly cooler across many parts of the country, with the increased risk for the development of more widely distributed snow showers than earlier in the week, some of which are likely to be heavy. However, there is some rather conflicting data with standard weather models on this at the moment, which will bring some rather conflicting forecasts from different forecasters/model users for this forecasting period.
 
The conflicting data is in regard to exactly when and if the colder weather and snow will actually arrive, for which they should begin to firm up on over the coming days.
 
Next update will follow shortly...
 
UPDATE ADDED: Friday 10th January 2014 (14:23)
 
Edited by Summer Sun
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Latest from James Madden

 

This evening through to Monday will see some quite heavy snow showers developing across parts of Scotland, in particular, in parts of northern and western Scotland and also to lower levels. It will also turn rather cold in the evenings throughout this weekend and there is currently a Met Office warning in place for widespread ice throughout this evening and into Saturday for large parts of the country, due to the recent excessive rainfall amounts and a sudden dip in temperatures. There is also likely to be some snow showers developing across certain parts of northern England at times throughout this period, especially in some parts of the North Pennines and Yorkshire regions.
 
The remainder of next week is then likely to see some widely scattered snow showers developing in amongst rain across parts of Scotland and northern England to begin with, the heaviest and most significant snow will be across parts of the far north/Scotland. Some of these wintry showers are also likely to extend to certain parts of Wales and Northern Ireland at times (non-significant).
 
It will also begin to feel much colder in the evenings with the development of frosts, especially in the northern half of the country. However, daytime temperatures may actually not fair to badly in some places to begin with at times throughout next week, in particular, in some parts to the south of the country. The latter part of next week will bring the risk of the most significant and widespread snow showers across the country, especially in some parts of the north and east (inc Ireland), and potentially in some parts further south later, where it may also turn particularly windy once again.
 
So from around Thursday onwards it is likely to turn markedly cooler across many parts of the country, with the increased risk for the development of more widely distributed snow showers than earlier in the week, some of which are likely to be heavy. However, there is some rather conflicting data with standard weather models on this at the moment, which will bring some rather conflicting forecasts from different forecasters/model users for this forecasting period.
 
The conflicting data is in regard to exactly when and if the colder weather and snow will actually arrive, for which they should begin to firm up on over the coming days.
 
Next update will follow shortly...
 
UPDATE ADDED: Friday 10th January 2014 (14:23)
 

 

 

 

Hes talking dog biscuits, his argument is usually that he doesn't use models for his forecasts and uses other methods, now all of a sudden he is comparing them, I can tell you now, nowhere is going to get pasted apart from high ground in Scotland at a push, and most places are going to get Lettuce all.

 

And if one flake falls anywhere in the south or on low ground from Manchester southwards I will walk stark naked to the North pole and back with a cactus in my mouth and another up my weeble.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Hes talking dog biscuits, his argument is usually that he doesn't use models for his forecasts and uses other methods, now all of a sudden he is comparing them, I can tell you now, nowhere is going to get pasted apart from high ground in Scotland at a push, and most places are going to get Lettuce all. And if one flake falls anywhere in the south or on low ground from Manchester southwards I will walk stark naked to the North pole and back with a cactus in my mouth and another up my I have a problem.

Let's hope he is wrong again. what a twit,it seems that he has cornered the market with his excuses ,why not admit it James,you have had a shocking winter,and my suggestion is that you keep quiet.The worst winter in a hundred years,don't make me laugh.
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Let's hope he is wrong again. what a twit,it seems that he has cornered the market with his excuses ,why not admit it James,you have had a shocking winter,and my suggestion is that you keep quiet.The worst winter in a hundred years,don't make me laugh.

 

 

No!!! - lets hope he is right but in life, there are hopes and dreams and fantasy world, and then there is the real world, I wish his predictions of a 1947 winter would come true but they wont.

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Let's hope he is wrong again. what a twit,it seems that he has cornered the market with his excuses ,why not admit it James,you have had a shocking winter,and my suggestion is that you keep quiet.The worst winter in a hundred years,don't make me laugh.

A lot of people seem to be slating this guy but many people were really bigging up this winter in November.......they all seem to have gone quiet!

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The GEFS ens are even crapper than the 12z ones, we already knew the London EC 12 ones were going to be worse than the 0z after seeing the mean and de blit graphs at 830 and 9pm respectively.

 

 

EDIT : Actually there not quite as crap as the 12z but they are still pretty crap

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Does it annoy anyone one else that the word "polar vortex" is considered a new term because of the weather in America? or is it just me

Yes, I notice that as well.Stratospheric warming is another. I first became aware of it on this site when Steve Murr mentioned it during early 2008. I don't recall anyone talking about this before or I wasn't aware of it. What I don't get it is why are forecasters suddenly talking about it now? I don't recall them talking about it 10 years ago or even 5 years ago? It has been known since the start of the 1950s. It seems to kicked off by the warming event of January 2009.I am not going to name names but I know of one professional forecaster who talks about it now as though he is an expert but why wasn't he talking about it 5 years ago?Why has it suddenly become an in thing?
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Does it annoy anyone one else that the word "polar vortex" is considered a new term because of the weather in America? or is it just me 

A bit like in the nineties when the in word was el nineo,no one spoke about it before just like no one speaks about it now!!!!

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Yes, I notice that as well.Stratospheric warming is another. I first became aware of it on this site when Steve Murr mentioned it during early 2008. I don't recall anyone talking about this before or I wasn't aware of it.What I don't get it is why are forecasters suddenly talking about it now? I don't recall them talking about it 10 years ago or even 5 years ago? It has been known since the start of the 1950s. It seems to kicked off by the warming event of January 2009.I am not going to name names but I know of one professional forecaster who talks about it now as though he is an expert but why wasn't he talking about it 5 years ago?Why has it suddenly become an in thing?

 

To be honest though, because of the internet and in particular, people who want to know more about these things, maybe for the 'wrong' reasons in some peoples eyes, ie - to be able to know when we have a shot at getting a potent cold spell further in advance, so forecasters probably didn't feel the need to talk about it but with the advent of twitter they probably get asked questions all the time, also was the correlation between SSW's and trop HLB's known to be as strong years ago?

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