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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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I'm still learning here. But going by theory, should that even be possible?

 

Well a few things add up. It appears that a disturbance ran westwards across the centre of the country (where from I'm not sure). It also happened between 4 and 6 this morning after an apparent period of clear skies which will have allowed the temperature to drop to 0C to -1C. Madrid also features low dewpoints a lot of the time but that doesn't explain why the precipitation was of snow considering the warm uppers. Until recently, Madrid has not seen much cold either so there's no pool of cold air there yet. I myself do not completely understand either.

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Well a few things add up. It appears that a disturbance ran westwards across the centre of the country (where from I'm not sure). It also happened between 4 and 6 this morning after an apparent period of clear skies which will have allowed the temperature to drop to 0C to -1C. Madrid also features low dewpoints a lot of the time but that doesn't explain why the precipitation was of snow considering the warm uppers. Until recently, Madrid has not seen much cold either so there's no pool of cold air there yet. I myself do not completely understand either.

 

Because the weather gods felt like it? Posted Image

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Well a few things add up. It appears that a disturbance ran westwards across the centre of the country (where from I'm not sure). It also happened between 4 and 6 this morning after an apparent period of clear skies which will have allowed the temperature to drop to 0C to -1C. Madrid also features low dewpoints a lot of the time but that doesn't explain why the precipitation was of snow considering the warm uppers. Until recently, Madrid has not seen much cold either so there's no pool of cold air there yet. I myself do not completely understand either.

 

Would these upper temps not be cold enough for snow, considering the elevation of the area. The chart is for 06Z this morning.

 

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WSI have issued there final winter forecast

 

WSI: Cold Early, Warmer Late This Winter in Europe

 

Strong Polar Vortex May Limit Biggest Cold Risk to December

 

Andover, MA, 27 November 2013 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects below-normal temperatures for the aggregate winter period (December-February) across parts of southern and southeastern mainland Europe and southwestern Russia, with above-normal temperatures expected elsewhere.According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “We continue to see indications that the coldest weather will occur early in the winter, with warmer risks more likely in the back of half of the winter. The polar vortex remains much stronger than normal, and many of our internal models suggest that it will more difficult to trigger a sudden warming of the stratospheric polar vortex that often precedes very cold periods in February or March. However, in the near term, we do expect widespread below-normal temperatures across mainland Europe during at least the first half of December. We expect that these colder risks will fade as the winter progresses, resulting in higher probabilities of above-normal temperatures heading into January and February.â€In December, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Colder than normal

Northern Mainland – Colder than normal

Southern Mainland – Colder than normal, except IberiaIn January, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except far east and western Russia

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normalIn February, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Colder than normal

 

http://www.wsi.com/e5caee4e-ce08-42ea-8503-945d6693f3db/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

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WSI have issued there final winter forecast

 

WSI: Cold Early, Warmer Late This Winter in Europe

 

Strong Polar Vortex May Limit Biggest Cold Risk to December

 

Andover, MA, 27 November 2013 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects below-normal temperatures for the aggregate winter period (December-February) across parts of southern and southeastern mainland Europe and southwestern Russia, with above-normal temperatures expected elsewhere.According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “We continue to see indications that the coldest weather will occur early in the winter, with warmer risks more likely in the back of half of the winter. The polar vortex remains much stronger than normal, and many of our internal models suggest that it will more difficult to trigger a sudden warming of the stratospheric polar vortex that often precedes very cold periods in February or March. However, in the near term, we do expect widespread below-normal temperatures across mainland Europe during at least the first half of December. We expect that these colder risks will fade as the winter progresses, resulting in higher probabilities of above-normal temperatures heading into January and February.â€In December, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Colder than normal

Northern Mainland – Colder than normal

Southern Mainland – Colder than normal, except IberiaIn January, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except far east and western Russia

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normalIn February, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Colder than normal

 

http://www.wsi.com/e5caee4e-ce08-42ea-8503-945d6693f3db/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

 

Sounds like they expect a Winter similar to some of those during the 1988-2008 period - a coldish December followed by a mild January and February.

 

Will be interesting to see what TWO's forecast will suggest when it goes online tomorrow?

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Sounds like they expect a Winter similar to some of those during the 1988-2008 period - a coldish December followed by a mild January and February.

 

Will be interesting to see what TWO's forecast will suggest when it goes online tomorrow?

 

Yes tomorrow its out

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Sounds like they expect a Winter similar to some of those during the 1988-2008 period - a coldish December followed by a mild January and February.

 

Will be interesting to see what TWO's forecast will suggest when it goes online tomorrow?

It looks like it's suggesting a Euro high from January, still it's just another LRF and I'm not the biggest fan of them and when looking at WSI record it's patchy to say the least, but no worse than any others.

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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When forecasts are not accurate after 5 days what really is the point in "long range forecasts" they are utter tosh!

 

Except they aren't...Generally speaking, you'll find that the models predict the longwave pattern pretty well.  You have to remember the UK is an absolutely tiny area when you look at the NH bigger picture.  

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Except they aren't...Generally speaking, you'll find that the models predict the longwave pattern pretty well.  You have to remember the UK is an absolutely tiny area when you look at the NH bigger picture.  

A typical long range forcast is so vague it can mean anything....i can see why you would attempt to forcast one but any forecast more than a week is  only worth looking at in settled weather and worthless in a changeable period!

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The weather outlooks winter forecast is out

 

Winter 2013/14: Colder than average

 

Overview
Rather cold and drier than average. All regions likely to see some snow, but perhaps not as much as in recent winters.On balance many of the signals are thought to be very weakly biased towards milder conditions, but the forecast overrides these and suggests a colder than average winter for the UK. The key reasons for this are:i) 4 out of the last 5 winters have been colder than average suggesting background patterns are stacked in favour of colder winters
ii) Tentative signs in late autumn of a more blocked pattern at mid-latitudes becoming established again 
 
Temperature
 

The winter is expected to be slightly colder than average over the 3 month period.  

 

Precipitation

 

Slightly below average over the 3 month period.  
December
 

Temperature: Close to average

Precipitation: Close to average

 

January
 

Temperature: Slightly below average

Precipitation: Close to or slightly below average

 

February
 

Temperature: Slightly below average

Precipitation: Slightly below average

 

Full detailed forecast here - http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

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The weather outlooks winter forecast is out

 

Winter 2013/14: Colder than average

 

Overview

Rather cold and drier than average. All regions likely to see some snow, but perhaps not as much as in recent winters.

On balance many of the signals are thought to be very weakly biased towards milder conditions, but the forecast overrides these and suggests a colder than average winter for the UK. The key reasons for this are:

i) 4 out of the last 5 winters have been colder than average suggesting background patterns are stacked in favour of colder winters

ii) Tentative signs in late autumn of a more blocked pattern at mid-latitudes becoming established again

 

 
Temperature
 

The winter is expected to be slightly colder than average over the 3 month period.  

 

Precipitation

 

Slightly below average over the 3 month period.

 

December
 

Temperature: Close to average

Precipitation: Close to average

 

January
 

Temperature: Slightly below average

Precipitation: Close to or slightly below average

 

February
 

Temperature: Slightly below average

Precipitation: Slightly below average

 

Full detailed forecast here - http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

I'll take Chio's I think....!!!  Subtle but also 'some' significant differences between the two LRF's.......Posted Image

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Cold spell looking good. -11c uppers and 515dam over us which is great. Snow should come on Thursday and last a couple of days. GFS has me down for 1c maxes out to Sunday from Thursday so that is good. 

 

Think this is better than the last cold spell, people are classing this as a 'brief' cold spell but it actually lasts like 4 days. 

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Gavin P has issued his winter forecast

 

 

Overall looking at a slightly cooler than average and very dry winter. Think January could provide the most interest in terms of cold and snow in an otherwise pretty dull winter, to be honest.
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