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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    I'm still learning here. But going by theory, should that even be possible?

     

    Well a few things add up. It appears that a disturbance ran westwards across the centre of the country (where from I'm not sure). It also happened between 4 and 6 this morning after an apparent period of clear skies which will have allowed the temperature to drop to 0C to -1C. Madrid also features low dewpoints a lot of the time but that doesn't explain why the precipitation was of snow considering the warm uppers. Until recently, Madrid has not seen much cold either so there's no pool of cold air there yet. I myself do not completely understand either.

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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    Well a few things add up. It appears that a disturbance ran westwards across the centre of the country (where from I'm not sure). It also happened between 4 and 6 this morning after an apparent period of clear skies which will have allowed the temperature to drop to 0C to -1C. Madrid also features low dewpoints a lot of the time but that doesn't explain why the precipitation was of snow considering the warm uppers. Until recently, Madrid has not seen much cold either so there's no pool of cold air there yet. I myself do not completely understand either.

     

    Because the weather gods felt like it? Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    Well a few things add up. It appears that a disturbance ran westwards across the centre of the country (where from I'm not sure). It also happened between 4 and 6 this morning after an apparent period of clear skies which will have allowed the temperature to drop to 0C to -1C. Madrid also features low dewpoints a lot of the time but that doesn't explain why the precipitation was of snow considering the warm uppers. Until recently, Madrid has not seen much cold either so there's no pool of cold air there yet. I myself do not completely understand either.

     

    Would these upper temps not be cold enough for snow, considering the elevation of the area. The chart is for 06Z this morning.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    WSI have issued there final winter forecast

     

    WSI: Cold Early, Warmer Late This Winter in Europe

     

    Strong Polar Vortex May Limit Biggest Cold Risk to December

     

    Andover, MA, 27 November 2013 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects below-normal temperatures for the aggregate winter period (December-February) across parts of southern and southeastern mainland Europe and southwestern Russia, with above-normal temperatures expected elsewhere.According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “We continue to see indications that the coldest weather will occur early in the winter, with warmer risks more likely in the back of half of the winter. The polar vortex remains much stronger than normal, and many of our internal models suggest that it will more difficult to trigger a sudden warming of the stratospheric polar vortex that often precedes very cold periods in February or March. However, in the near term, we do expect widespread below-normal temperatures across mainland Europe during at least the first half of December. We expect that these colder risks will fade as the winter progresses, resulting in higher probabilities of above-normal temperatures heading into January and February.â€In December, WSI forecasts:

    Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

    UK – Colder than normal

    Northern Mainland – Colder than normal

    Southern Mainland – Colder than normal, except IberiaIn January, WSI forecasts:

    Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

    UK – Warmer than normal

    Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except far east and western Russia

    Southern Mainland – Warmer than normalIn February, WSI forecasts:

    Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

    UK – Warmer than normal

    Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

    Southern Mainland – Colder than normal

     

    http://www.wsi.com/e5caee4e-ce08-42ea-8503-945d6693f3db/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife

    When forecasts are not accurate after 5 days what really is the point in "long range forecasts" they are utter tosh!

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    Posted
  • Location: newcastle,north east
  • Weather Preferences: severe cold
  • Location: newcastle,north east

    When forecasts are not accurate after 5 days what really is the point in "long range forecasts" they are utter tosh!

     

    totally agree, 100%

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    WSI have issued there final winter forecast

     

    WSI: Cold Early, Warmer Late This Winter in Europe

     

    Strong Polar Vortex May Limit Biggest Cold Risk to December

     

    Andover, MA, 27 November 2013 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects below-normal temperatures for the aggregate winter period (December-February) across parts of southern and southeastern mainland Europe and southwestern Russia, with above-normal temperatures expected elsewhere.According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “We continue to see indications that the coldest weather will occur early in the winter, with warmer risks more likely in the back of half of the winter. The polar vortex remains much stronger than normal, and many of our internal models suggest that it will more difficult to trigger a sudden warming of the stratospheric polar vortex that often precedes very cold periods in February or March. However, in the near term, we do expect widespread below-normal temperatures across mainland Europe during at least the first half of December. We expect that these colder risks will fade as the winter progresses, resulting in higher probabilities of above-normal temperatures heading into January and February.â€In December, WSI forecasts:

    Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

    UK – Colder than normal

    Northern Mainland – Colder than normal

    Southern Mainland – Colder than normal, except IberiaIn January, WSI forecasts:

    Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

    UK – Warmer than normal

    Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except far east and western Russia

    Southern Mainland – Warmer than normalIn February, WSI forecasts:

    Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

    UK – Warmer than normal

    Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

    Southern Mainland – Colder than normal

     

    http://www.wsi.com/e5caee4e-ce08-42ea-8503-945d6693f3db/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

     

    Sounds like they expect a Winter similar to some of those during the 1988-2008 period - a coldish December followed by a mild January and February.

     

    Will be interesting to see what TWO's forecast will suggest when it goes online tomorrow?

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Sounds like they expect a Winter similar to some of those during the 1988-2008 period - a coldish December followed by a mild January and February.

     

    Will be interesting to see what TWO's forecast will suggest when it goes online tomorrow?

     

    Yes tomorrow its out

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    Sounds like they expect a Winter similar to some of those during the 1988-2008 period - a coldish December followed by a mild January and February.

     

    Will be interesting to see what TWO's forecast will suggest when it goes online tomorrow?

    It looks like it's suggesting a Euro high from January, still it's just another LRF and I'm not the biggest fan of them and when looking at WSI record it's patchy to say the least, but no worse than any others.

    Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield - 228m/748ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Sheffield - 228m/748ft ASL

    When forecasts are not accurate after 5 days what really is the point in "long range forecasts" they are utter tosh!

     

    Except they aren't...Generally speaking, you'll find that the models predict the longwave pattern pretty well.  You have to remember the UK is an absolutely tiny area when you look at the NH bigger picture.  

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    Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

    Except they aren't...Generally speaking, you'll find that the models predict the longwave pattern pretty well.  You have to remember the UK is an absolutely tiny area when you look at the NH bigger picture.  

    A typical long range forcast is so vague it can mean anything....i can see why you would attempt to forcast one but any forecast more than a week is  only worth looking at in settled weather and worthless in a changeable period!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    How are the charts looking for cold?

     

    4 days of cold looks a decent bet before less cold air comes in from the west

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    The weather outlooks winter forecast is out

     

    Winter 2013/14: Colder than average

     

    Overview
    Rather cold and drier than average. All regions likely to see some snow, but perhaps not as much as in recent winters.On balance many of the signals are thought to be very weakly biased towards milder conditions, but the forecast overrides these and suggests a colder than average winter for the UK. The key reasons for this are:i) 4 out of the last 5 winters have been colder than average suggesting background patterns are stacked in favour of colder winters
    ii) Tentative signs in late autumn of a more blocked pattern at mid-latitudes becoming established again 
     
    Temperature
     

    The winter is expected to be slightly colder than average over the 3 month period.  

     

    Precipitation

     

    Slightly below average over the 3 month period.  
    December
     

    Temperature: Close to average

    Precipitation: Close to average

     

    January
     

    Temperature: Slightly below average

    Precipitation: Close to or slightly below average

     

    February
     

    Temperature: Slightly below average

    Precipitation: Slightly below average

     

    Full detailed forecast here - http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, about 12 miles from Norwich
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold, snow, and cold snowy snow
  • Location: South Norfolk, about 12 miles from Norwich

    The weather outlooks winter forecast is out

     

    Winter 2013/14: Colder than average

     

    Overview

    Rather cold and drier than average. All regions likely to see some snow, but perhaps not as much as in recent winters.

    On balance many of the signals are thought to be very weakly biased towards milder conditions, but the forecast overrides these and suggests a colder than average winter for the UK. The key reasons for this are:

    i) 4 out of the last 5 winters have been colder than average suggesting background patterns are stacked in favour of colder winters

    ii) Tentative signs in late autumn of a more blocked pattern at mid-latitudes becoming established again

     

     
    Temperature
     

    The winter is expected to be slightly colder than average over the 3 month period.  

     

    Precipitation

     

    Slightly below average over the 3 month period.

     

    December
     

    Temperature: Close to average

    Precipitation: Close to average

     

    January
     

    Temperature: Slightly below average

    Precipitation: Close to or slightly below average

     

    February
     

    Temperature: Slightly below average

    Precipitation: Slightly below average

     

    Full detailed forecast here - http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

    I'll take Chio's I think....!!!  Subtle but also 'some' significant differences between the two LRF's.......Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife

    4 days of cold looks a decent bet before less cold air comes in from the west

     

    Hopefully the models change and keep the cold spell going on longer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
  • Location: Outside Limavady.

    Cold spell looking good. -11c uppers and 515dam over us which is great. Snow should come on Thursday and last a couple of days. GFS has me down for 1c maxes out to Sunday from Thursday so that is good. 

     

    Think this is better than the last cold spell, people are classing this as a 'brief' cold spell but it actually lasts like 4 days. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    If the high pressure manages to hold on and stop the entry of Atlantic air then we can enjoy something more long lasting with good surface cold!

     

    Karyo

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Gavin P has issued his winter forecast

     

     

    Overall looking at a slightly cooler than average and very dry winter. Think January could provide the most interest in terms of cold and snow in an otherwise pretty dull winter, to be honest.
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    Posted
  • Location: East County Clare
  • Location: East County Clare

    Yes down for 4 days of 1c maxes which seems pretty good for me.

    Just be wary of taking those charts at face value eh mate. Things can and most probably will change.
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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    CFSv2 mean 2m max temps for week ending 11th Jan;

    post-12721-0-68311900-1385903572_thumb.j

    If only! ;)

    Edited by AWD
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    Posted
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
  • Location: Outside Limavady.

    Just be wary of taking those charts at face value eh mate. Things can and most probably will change.

     

    Well bbc have us down for 1c on Friday, so thats from the dogs mouth.

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