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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Don't tend to read the bbc monthly forecasts, as they chop and change markedly and rarely come to fruition - however, reading the one above, its a very uninspiring outlook if you like cold and snow. A few wintry showers in Highland Scotland and that's it... The BBC are notoriously conservative mind and if temps are expected to be a little below average this would certainly mean snow at lower levels in the north at times - not just high ground.

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Heres an interesting fact-

 

We have heard MUCH this month that once the high topples a swift return to SW winds would be the case, the high would topple-

 

Even Ian at the met touting the decider models returning to a SW flow- & of course the GFS modelling SW winds day in day out up until 2 days ago-

 

Well for England the last SW wind day was -

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2013111100-0-6.png  11 Nov-

 

& the next projected SW day for England is

 

ECM- No SW winds- all 10 days are dictated by mostly NW winds, occasionally veering to the west then back to NW

GFS- No SW for the next 16 days. ( 18z)

 

Interesting considering what was predicted V whats actually arrived.

S

 

 

Indeed SM well spotted Posted Image , not that this is a competition of us versus Ian F etc, but I also had this to say back on the 12th November on another thread, making reference to the first paragraph.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77585-snow-and-ice-in-the-northern-hemisphere-201314/?p=2831702

 

On the same day I also got slated by a certain member, who shall remain nameless, for suggesting that the search for double-digit Celsius Temperatures would largely be a fruitless task for the rest of Autumn. Posted Image Maybe, maybe not bar a degree or two, but not a bad forecast either way.

 

Furthermore, as Steve describes, a SWr'ly flow remains unlikely for a long while yet. I myself, said this on the 17th November as shown below by the final sentence.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78461-model-output-discussion-131113/?p=2836909

 

For me, just as Jason T showed in his post last night, sometimes the past can dictate our future, as Steve and I have also illustrated. However, in Jason's example, we should remember the winter of 1962 was plainly the exception to the norm. Personally, I do think things will start RAMPING up even more in here for coldies over the remainder of all this week's outputs. Even then, please BE AWARE that we far from nailing a bitter prolonged spell of weather just now, given the timeframes involved. A decent shot or two at some decent cold spells and maybe a SNOW DAY chucked in from time to time by the latter part of next week is the current REALITY. Posted Image

 

Enjoy the weather, whatever it does.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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There seems to be general disappointment in the model thread that  if the models only show 2/3 days of 'proper cold' with snow in some areas 'it's not good enough' even if there is chance of re loads.

 

General theme seems to be 'we need X,Y and Z to fall in place' for a pro longed cold spell etc etc and nothing else will do ?.

 

Am I the only living member that remembers many winters past , that lamp post watching in March at 4am for a flake of snow was about as good as it got ??

 

Kids aged 7 would have never seen snow (cf 2 weeks of snow here in March this year)

 

Overall temps below average good FI charts popping up, winters not over yet Posted Image

Edited by stewfox
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I think there are different levels of cold enthusiast in here. Many like me look for cold & snow not just below average temps. Personally I dont get much excitement out of 6c, grey skies and high heating bills.  For the medium level enthusast there is something to be possitive about ; A few northerly topplers and sleety showers. The extreme weather enthusast like myself is dissapointed that there is no sign in any of the models of a prolonged cold and snowy outbreak any time soon.

 

Personally, I am a snow lover. The more snow and the longer it last the better. Perhaps its in my blood but snow has always been magical for me.

 

I like cold because its needed for snow, but bitter cold without snow is a bit like just staying in a large freezer stacking shelves. I prefer dry frost to constant rain and wind though.

Edited by hollowbaron
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There seems to be general disappointment in the model thread that if the models only show 2/3 days of 'proper cold' with snow in some areas 'it's not good enough' even if there is chance of re loads.

General theme seems to be 'we need X,Y and Z to fall in place' for a pro longed cold spell etc etc and nothing else will do ?.

Am I the only living member that remembers many winters past , that lamp post watching in March at 4am for a flake of snow was about as good as it got ??

Kids aged 7 would have never seen snow (cf 2 weeks of snow here in March this year)

Overall temps below average good FI charts popping up, winters not over yet Posted Image

As I've said before we have been spoilt the last 5 years. I seriously think that 5 years ago many would have been happy with what the models are showing. However, if we're not seeing a December 2010 or 1962/63 setup now, it would seem that it's no longer any good! Edited by Don
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A really tricky winter forecast coming up, I still think the first half we will just have to settle for topplers / short lived cold spells, the only change to what I thought originally now is the possibility of MLB's being a common theme in Dec as opposed to more zonal conditions, really not sure what will happen but stand by my prediction on19th Oct that any sustained blocking more likely in Late jan and Feb. The thing is if we were to see it occurring any earlier then really we would need to see strat forecasts improving within the next 2 weeks, of course we  cannot rule out a total garbage zonal winter but I still think we will get aa shot at some stage.

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Short term I just want clear skies just before sunrise next week so we can see the greatest comet for 100 years-Comet ISON.

If it survives it's graze with the sun and subsequent slingshot-should be a spectacular site in the Northern hemisphere.

Edited by martinj2
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Not sure if this is the place to post my winter 2013/14 overall predictions for what they are worth - but here goes.

 

Following on from the Net Weather winter forecast which remarkably is quite similiar to what I am expecting - I am predicting a below average winter, possibly a degree below the 61-90 norm, if and it is a big if - we see a proper cold February.

 

December - slightly below average thanks to high pressure putting the brakes on the atlantic and also atlantic trough action aligned NW-SE pattern, but on occasion we will pull in milder atlantic air on the NE flank of the high - just as we have seen today. The coldest conditions are most likely to be associated with high pressure with cold frosty nights and cold days under the weak sun or fog - very seasonal. I think the first 2 weeks will be predominantly chilly with a NW blast around the 5-8th followed by high pressure settling over the country until mid month before we see weak frontal attacks from the NW bringing milder dank conditions for a time before a renewed NW plunge just before christmas followed by heights once again sitting over the country - the year ending on a quiet cold note. A notably dry month and snow probably reserved mainly for higher ground in the north, but perhaps a cover or two at times to lower ground in the north courtesy of the NW blasts I mentioned.

 

January - around average temperature wise - possibly with a mild start as we see a more stronger atlantic flow with heights sitting more to the SW, however, the December pattern will quickly reestablish itself with colder north/northwesterly blasts mid month with more bite to the December ones. Late January could see a pattern change with heights building and ridging into scandi pulling in cold continental air as we see the Polar vortex weaken its hold. Another relatively dry month but a possible wet start. Snow quite likely mid month especially in the north.

 

February - potentially a notably cold month at least 1 degree below normal, possibly more than 1.5 degree, if we see heights build strong to the NE, combined with a southerly tracking jet and weak polar vortex. Snow very likely from easterly winds and battleground situations more so later in the month.

 

(I wouldn't also be surprised to see another cold start to Spring...).

 

So in overview, I sound like I am copying net weather forecast, but yes a drier than normal winter, noticeably so, a weak ineffective atlantic, the second half colder than the first half, with the chance of proper cold in february. All quite traditional, whilst not the heady cold heights of Dec 2010 and winter 09/10, overall quite similiar to winter 08/09 and 12/13 in terms of wintry episodes. A decent winter for cold lovers but nothing spectacular.

Edited by damianslaw
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Seems Madrid has had a bit of snow overnight judging by piccies on facebook - that is, under high pressure, warm uppers, right in the middle of the country. If it doesn't snow here next week, I give up!

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Seems Madrid has had a bit of snow overnight judging by piccies on facebook - that is, under high pressure, warm uppers, right in the middle of the country. If it doesn't snow here next week, I give up!

I'm still learning here. But going by theory, should that even be possible?

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I'm still learning here. But going by theory, should that even be possible?

 

Looking at the charts, I don't see where any precipitation came from, its definitely possible as Madrid is at high altitude I think, but obviously you need something to be falling from the sky.

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It's the passage way between the bar and the WI meeting room.

OR Greenland Iceland Norway sea area

 

Thanks, I did think it was something to do with something near the coast of Southern Greenland just going by the way Ian and Steve were talking, a good name for it could be the shortwave corridor of uncertainty!

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Looking at the charts, I don't see where any precipitation came from, its definitely possible as Madrid is at high altitude I think, but obviously you need something to be falling from the sky.

 

There are pockets of precip in the Madrid area.

 

Posted Image

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Just popped in MOD and its the same pessimists ruling the roost as per usual, expected a mild zonal fest on the models and was shocked to see a stonking ECM 00Z and GFS 06Z run, really they are both fantastic, what the hell are the doom merchants on about.

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Just popped in MOD and its the same pessimists ruling the roost as per usual, expected a mild zonal fest on the models and was shocked to see a stonking ECM 00Z and GFS 06Z run, really they are both fantastic, what the hell are the doom merchants on about.

If only a few more 'stonking runs' translated into stonking weather, we'd all be a lot happier?

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