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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Why are you giving the ex*ress more exposure?

If we don't criticise and challenge this rubbish, lots of the less informed amongst Joe public outside this forum, especially the elderly and the vulnerable would be unnecessarily scared out of their wits reading this. Lots of people on Facebook share the Express articles on there as they believe them!! Edited by pandit-scholar
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Someone posted the other day that crazy weather stories add about 10% to sales. That's the only reason they print this p1sh.

 

They've probably been reading the MO thread here and thought some of the folk needed a wee bit of cheering up. Posted Image

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Here's my 'hunch' forecast for Winter 2013/14 - bear in mind that my equivalent one 12 months was pretty spot on.

Dominated by HP over the UK; average or just below average temps but predominately dry. Late December/early January will bring a more unsettled spell to all parts of the UK.

By mid January and into February it will settle down again with temps around average.

V little snow this Winter anywhere, in the UK.

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Here's my 'hunch' forecast for Winter 2013/14 - bear in mind that my equivalent one 12 months was pretty spot on.Dominated by HP over the UK; average or just below average temps but predominately dry. Late December/early January will bring a more unsettled spell to all parts of the UK.By mid January and into February it will settle down again with temps around average.V little snow this Winter anywhere, in the UK.

 

Well that's depressing if you like cold 

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@bristle boy. I c your winter 2013-2014 won't be published in the express or the daily fale lol. I do hope your forecast is way off the mark though and that's nothing personal. A winter with out snow is rather boring and it would bring back bad memories of those from winters before 2007.

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Looks about average for the UK nothing too cold and is that a slight bit of orange across us too on bottom chart?, looking below average across Eastern USA, something that has been cropping up a while now to happen. And starting at the end of the weekend judging by some forecasts.

]If I'm reading these charts correct then they are actually quite good if you want cold.. Remember the colors represent percentage so if you look at the bottom chart ( probability of DJF being below normal temperature) south of the Uk and much of Western Europe has.60-80 % probability being below normal temps. Also the top chart ( probability of being above normal temps) much of the area above uk Greenland, pole etc has a probability of 80- 100 % of being above normal temps! which may imply blocking, so a good update from the Met o if you want cold.....I think, correct me if I'm wronghttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-probTies in with Simon keeling video of a cold blocked December
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For those of you who think such things matter (personally, I don't, but that's a discussion for a different thread) solar activity appears to be on the wane:

 

Posted Image

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For those of you who think such things matter (personally, I don't, but that's a discussion for a different thread) solar activity appears to be on the wane:

 

Posted Image

Yep latest SESC counts show after the highest activity we have seen for some time things have calmed down somewhat over the last couple of days:

 

post-1038-0-30463900-1385108380_thumb.pn

 

(Green is 10.7cm Flux, Blue is Sunspot Count)

 

SK

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EC32 model not offering much for December currently (signal wise)

 

@MattHugo81 

 

EC32 has had its upgrade, but provides not much insight into Dec with a particularly 'weak' signal for any one weather type. Any ones guess.

 

With all these stupid headlines in the Express about winter you can just see this one coming in average or above today we have winter lasting till May!

Edited by Summer Sun
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EC32 model not offering much for December@MattHugo81 EC32 has had its upgrade, but provides not much insight into Dec with a particularly 'weak' signal for any one weather type. Any ones guess.With all these stupid headlines in the Express about winter you can just see this one coming in average or above today we have winter lasting till May!

how many times do we have to Say that the ECM 32 is garbage Edited by Chess01
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For those of you who think such things matter (personally, I don't, but that's a discussion for a different thread) solar activity appears to be on the wane:

 

Posted Image

 

Just in time for the jet to start migrating south, Europe to cool down and the brutal cold to start filtering over to our shores! Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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Yep latest SESC counts show after the highest activity we have seen for some time things have calmed down somewhat over the last couple of days:

 

Posted ImageSESC-Solar-Count.png

 

(Green is 10.7cm Flux, Blue is Sunspot Count)

 

SK

It is the weakest in 200 years and sun also is undergoing one of its oddest magnetic reversals on record.

It should signal the peak of the solar maximum, for some reason The sun's north magnetic pole reversed polarity more than a year ago, so it has the same polarity as the south pole. It's delay between the two reversals is not normal.

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The Express are now going for the longest UK winter ever, even longer than the Great Frost of 1683/4!! They are going crazier and crazier everyday!!! http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/444385/Long-range-UK-weather-forecast-warns-snow-storms-and-Arctic-winds-could-last-SIX-months

 

 

The press complaints commission code of practice says "

 

Accuracy

 

i) The Press must take care not to publish inaccurate, misleading or distorted information, including pictures. ii) A significant inaccuracy, misleading statement or distortion once recognised must be corrected, promptly and with due prominence, and - where appropriate - an apology published.

 

I will write to them (In May)

 

Some people can take this seriously

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The press complaints commission code of practice says "

 

Accuracy

 

i) The Press must take care not to publish inaccurate, misleading or distorted information, including pictures. ii) A significant inaccuracy, misleading statement or distortion once recognised must be corrected, promptly and with due prominence, and - where appropriate - an apology published.

 

I will write to them (In May)

 

Some people can take this seriously

 

Indeed - the Express has an elderly readership - it would be extremely sad if some of those people made choices to reduce their fuel consumption in order to budget for this long, extreme winter.

 

As a retired journalist, I abhor this type of media hype - I will not be waiting to lodge a complaint - it has been sent.... with more to follow......

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Right then, I thought I might as well post this as it holds quite a lot of information of how potential December could pan out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yP-mgEB6Q4s

Notice the sheer persistence of that Pacific block, potentially showing high pressure towards the north east and interestingly a battleground set up establishing mid-month.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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EC32 model not offering much for December

 

@MattHugo81 

 

EC32 has had its upgrade, but provides not much insight into Dec with a particularly 'weak' signal for any one weather type. Any ones guess.

 

With all these stupid headlines in the Express about winter you can just see this one coming in average or above today we have winter lasting till May!

 

I don't think offering much is the correct termilogy to use...you could give the wrong impression..most people on here are cold fans.

 

I think the word to say is that that there no clear signal as per matt hugo's tweet.

 

JMA is interesting...

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It is the weakest in 200 years and sun also is undergoing one of its oddest magnetic reversals on record.It should signal the peak of the solar maximum, for some reason The sun's north magnetic pole reversed polarity more than a year ago, so it has the same polarity as the south pole. It's delay between the two reversals is not normal.

 

the delay between the reversals can happen that is why we have had a twin peak this time around and if you go back and look for other cycles with two peaks the same thing will have happened during those cycles as well

 

EDIT: do hope your forecast is right BFTV those charts look fantastic

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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