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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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can I just ask all those who have slagged off certain newspapers (express etc) and forecasters (Mr Madden and Powell) for their snowmageddon predictions, if they are right, are we going to see a massive apology from you all

No.No reputable forecaster would ever make such ludicrous predictions for our winter. Have you ever wondered why they don't predict a mild winter? They make the same forecasts every year, it's like saying, live every day of your life like it's your last, one day, you will be right!
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I have got to admit and even repeat myself, nut the extremely high sunspot numbers are worrying me a lot, I do believe they have a say in which way our weather goesPosted Image , I really do hope I am wrong though, PLEASE GOD LET ME BE WRONGPosted Image

 

Sunspot numbers are not high at the moment, and solar activity today is low. It has been up and down the last 6 weeks at least, but certainly not consistently high. 

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BBC weather's Paul Hudson has updated his blog

 

What's behind the 'coldest winter for 100 years' headline?

 

Those of us with a keen interest in the weather can't fail to have noticed yet another headline in the Express this weekend, claiming this winter would be the coldest in 100 years, which you can see here. Wherever I went this weekend, I've been stopped in the street by people asking me when the awful weather is likely to hit, whether they should buy winter tyres for the car, or go ahead with a planned visit to relatives at Christmas. The headline in the Express came courtesy of little known 'Exacta Weather', a tiny private weather company, which bases its forecasts on, amongst other things, variations in solar output. But the headline this weekend is almost identical to the one from this time last year, in which the same 'Exacta Weather' forecasted severe wintry conditions throughout last winter, leading to yet another front page headline in the Express.

 

And If you wondered why they keep printing these stories

 

When I (Paul Hudson) worked at the Met Office some years ago, I remember the press office contacted a tabloid newspaper to ask why they continued to print such weather stories which invariably turned out to be wrong.

 

Their answer was very honest, straightforward and unapologetic.

 

Weather sells newspapers they said; admitting that each and every time they had a front page story on extreme weather, their circulation went up by around 10%.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/whats-behind-the-coldest-winte

Edited by Summer Sun
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No.No reputable forecaster would ever make such ludicrous predictions for our winter. Have you ever wondered why they don't predict a mild winter? They make the same forecasts every year, it's like saying, live every day of your life like it's your last, one day, you will be right!

Indeed not. Real forecasters would think of the consequences of making ridiculous guesses?

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As for the Express headline, 100  days is a rounded number that takes in the entire season, I think therefore it's obviously suspect. But at the end of the day they are just trying to sell papers. 

 

As for the spell ahead and winter as a whole, well the spell coming up may well reinforce some fairly typically seasonal weather, which is, understandably, welcomed by many.  As for winter, if the Met-Office seasonal model is correct, though a high pressure dominated winter would be fairly boring to any extreme weather enthusiast, a surplus of sun, and pleasant days (even taking into account frosts), doesn't sound such a bad outlook from a personal point of view.

Edited by SP1986
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That Paul Hudson post from Gavin kind of backs up my argument, and Express haters are shooting themselves in the foot by talking about them on forums like this because any publicity is good publicity, and I tell you now, I know this from living in an area with a very high elderly population, the Mail and Express are the 2 most read papers around here and no matter how many times they get it wrong, they have a loyal readership which wont change paper, most who read it even laugh at the headlines and then turn the page to read the more respected columnists on politics and sport etc, etc.

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That Paul Hudson post from Gavin kind of backs up my argument, and Express haters are shooting themselves in the foot by talking about them on forums like this because any publicity is good publicity, and I tell you now, I know this from living in an area with a very high elderly population, the Mail and Express are the 2 most read papers around here and no matter how many times they get it wrong, they have a loyal readership which wont change paper, most who read it even laugh at the headlines and then turn the page to read the more respected columnists on politics and sport etc, etc.

Lol, who are these respected columnists?

 

It's fairly obvious why they continue to print these stories - quite frankly I don't blame them. They want to sell more papers and make more money - printing 'Fairly average late November chilly spell with cold rain to commence on Monday evening as a cold front moves southwards across the United Kingdom' won't grab the eyes of many peope!

Edited by cheese
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Lol, who are these respected columnists?

 

It's fairly obvious why they continue to print these stories - quite frankly I don't blame them. They want to sell more papers and make more money - printing 'Fairly average late November chilly spell with cold rain to commence on Monday evening as a cold front moves southwards across the United Kingdom' won't grab the eyes of many peope!

 

Melanie Phillips in the Mail for a start, someone with traditional British values, as with most Mail / Express haters, no prises for guessing your political persuasion.

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Sunspot numbers are not high at the moment, and solar activity today is low. It has been up and down the last 6 weeks at least, but certainly not consistently high. 

 

I am no expert in all this stuff and I am still learning, so 200+ sunspots is not high, and does it matter what type of sunspots they are?

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I read the DM and Guardian online somtimes.

 

Like reading the comments.

 

Is the Pole Vortex Split likely? I saw someone mention it earlier but no one picked up on it. I'm guessing that would make things colder, because of the jet stream? Sorry I'm still new to this, but learning slowly.

Edited by hollowbaron
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There seems to be a real obsession with holy grail charts and anything less is useless on this forum, the charts from my perspective are much better than you usually get in late Nov/early Dec with a strong jet and prevailing southwesterlies which is the normal fayre for this time of year, the weather wasn't holy grail in late May/early June yet most were happy, the obsession with perfect cold wintry charts in mid to late November i find perplexing to the extreme.

Edited by Eugene
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Melanie Phillips in the Mail for a start, someone with traditional British values, as with most Mail / Express haters, no prises for guessing your political persuasion.

 

Get yourself one of these or something similar:

 

Posted Image

 

Never once seen a sensationalist or unsubstantiated claim regarding imminent death by snow hurricane or the like!

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I read the DM and Guardian online somtimes.

 

Like reading the comments.

 

Is the Pole Vortex Split likely? I saw someone mention it earlier but no one picked up on it. I'm guessing that would make things colder? Sorry I'm still new to this, but learning slowly.

 

I suspect it's hanging in the balance, the PV looks very strong, I don't think anyone could say with absolute certainty what will happen regarding the PV. I think as with these situations of course there is a chance it will split, allowing the Greenland High some air time, but in this current pattern and way things are set up, I'd lean towards the PV hanging on for now, if only for the short term. Close call.

 

Even if the PV does hold steady were still going to see a period of quiet, and at times frosty weather. This situation reminds me a little of 2005, admittedly without the colder start that winter period.

Edited by SP1986
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That Paul Hudson post from Gavin kind of backs up my argument, and Express haters are shooting themselves in the foot by talking about them on forums like this because any publicity is good publicity, and I tell you now, I know this from living in an area with a very high elderly population, the Mail and Express are the 2 most read papers around here and no matter how many times they get it wrong, they have a loyal readership which wont change paper, most who read it even laugh at the headlines and then turn the page to read the more respected columnists on politics and sport etc, etc.

 

I do realise that old people are slow, however for you can be there when every single OAP reads the front page of their paper, laughs and turns it straight over must mean you are extremely fast, or you all meet up in a hall somewhere and ask them to turn all at the same time, Posted Image

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Get yourself one of these or something similar:

 

Posted Image

 

Never once seen a sensationalist or unsubstantiated claim regarding imminent death by snow hurricane or the like!

 

 

No thanks, there are many unsubstantiated claims from them but not about the weather, anyway, that is the last comment on media as im probably doing the moderators heads in by being off topic so really sorry, will get back on topic, my posts were by no means trying to claim that Madden or Powell are good forecasters because clearly they are not.

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can I just ask all those who have slagged off certain newspapers (express etc) and forecasters (Mr Madden and Powell) for their snowmageddon predictions, if they are right, are we going to see a massive apology from you all

Not from me......I'm sick of the sensationalist garbage that gets 'puked out' each winter- and subsequent 'told you' rubbish just because we may have 3 weeks of proper cold at some stage during the season.  I asked my 7 year old tonight, "Do you think it will be cold this winter?" R- "Yes, probably Daddy", "Do you think we'll have snow?"  R- "It's winter Daddy so I should think so", "Do you think it will be cold all the time?" R-"Not all the time Daddy".  That single conversation has more credit than the predictions of Madden I'm afraid......!!!Posted Image

Edited by The Bevmeister
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Melanie Phillips in the Mail for a start, someone with traditional British values, as with most Mail / Express haters, no prises for guessing your political persuasion.

I'd like to see the term 'traditional British values' defined first. It's very possible that I don't care for them at all.

Edited by cheese
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If the models are to be believed , looks like the UK is in for slightly below average temps for next 7-10 days with snow mainly on hills and mountains of all 4 nations of the UK. How many of us expected this weather 10-14 days ago??Not many if truth be told as it looked zonal for the foreseeable. My point being things are very fluid weather wise and some people get downhearted when we are not going to get a repeat of December 2010.Lets be honest, that was truly exceptional and will probably not happen again for a very long time. Everyone needs to take a deep breath as we are still in AUTUMN and if we get 2 or 3 cold spells of say 5-7 day spells with some snow most will be happy(including me) between Dec and end of Feb. Unfortunately, we don't live in Germany, Austria or Sweden where cold and snow lasts for weeks, sometimes months on end.!!

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Amazes me that any of you read a newspaper at all, they're all full of rubbish. 

 

Back on topic and fr what it's worth I am still leaning toward a milder Winter than we have seen in the past half decade , it's taking forever for the majority of Western Russia and Eastern Europe to get cold as well, which is not often a good signal if you want cold to come and visit us (at least not if you're wanting it from the East).

 

I've seen many a winter like this one, where you get plunges of cold air slipping south int central Europe and missing the UK to the East by a few 100 miles. I doubt we'll be on the wrong side all the time so maybe a few half hearted attempts and the Atlantic does look to have run out of steam for now, but for me there is a distinct lack of anything wanting to encroach from the East , and even if we do get a decent block in the right place, what's the use of it being there if you have a dead Atlantic with nothing with any great potentency to dive underneath it ??

 

Instead you get some weak Lows slipping well South into Spain and we end up in no mans land. 

 

So I'm of the belief we'll see temperatures come out on the milder side of average throughout the winter with hardly any decent long lived cold spells, and the majority of the UK limited to just a few temporary snow events at best. 

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