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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    A lot of 6z GEFS members edging away from blocking in FI, BUT with HUGE uncertainty though.

    Posted Image

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    Last time an update for this was posted it was showing unsettled weather for all of November with nothing cold, this model flips and flops as much as any other one

     

    Hence the "hopefully its correct" Posted Image At the very least it's a potential positive to go along with the pattern change the models are showing.

    Edited by radiohead
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Hence the "hopefully its correct" Posted Image At the very least it's a potential positive to go along with the pattern change the models are showing.

     

    Chris Fawkes on twitter

     

    @_chrisfawkes: not the same as 2010 so I think quite a short lived cold snap next week with Atlantic re exerting it's influence late Nov"

    Cold snap next week. Peak of cold Tue & Wed. Although temperatures rise a bit after, they will prob stay on low side for following week

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    Last time an update for this was posted it was showing unsettled weather for all of November with nothing cold, this model flips and flops as much as any other one

    I have to agree SS as much as I'm hoping for it to be correct this time.

    Chris Fawkes on twitter

     

    @_chrisfawkes: not the same as 2010 so I think quite a short lived cold snap next week with Atlantic re exerting it's influence late Nov"Cold snap next week. Peak of cold Tue & Wed. Although temperatures rise a bit after, they will prob stay on low side for following week

    He tweeted the exact same yesterday and by my reckoning nearly  two weeks of cold isn't a snap.

    Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    He tweeted the exact same yesterday and by my reckoning nearly two weeks of cold isn't a snap.

    I think it's the same tweet from yesterday mate, as I can't see any recent activity from Chris Fawkes.Courtesy of Matt Hugo, at least the EC32 day scenario isn't without support from other models;post-12721-0-05852000-1384517249_thumb.jAlways nice to see some collective support! :) Edited by AWD
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    I think it's the same tweet from yesterday mate, as I can't see any recent activity from Chris Fawkes.

    Courtesy of Matt Hugo, at least the EC32 day scenario isn't without support from other models;

    Posted Imageimage.jpg

    Always nice to see some collective support! Posted Image

     

    First tweet (not the same as 2010) is yesterday 2nd is today

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    Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

    I think it's the same tweet from yesterday mate, as I can't see any recent activity from Chris Fawkes.

    Courtesy of Matt Hugo, at least the EC32 day scenario isn't without support from other models;

    Posted Imageimage.jpg

    Always nice to see some collective support! Posted Image

    Low pressure in europe is the key

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    For those of you expecting a flake or 2 next week:

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    Some incredible shots here:

     

    http://chaoticmind75.blogspot.ru/2013/08/my-technique-for-snowflakes-shooting.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham

    Wow snowflakes are fabulous,amazing photos those are-Mystifying.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Both of the met offices updates talk of high pressure to the north of the UK keeping it drier here, there are signs of a slight recovery nearer to normal temperatures by the middle of December.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    From the latest Met Office Outlook :

     

    Showers will be a wintry combination of rain, sleet and snow, giving locally significant snow accumulations over higher ground, and perhaps even to lower levels at times.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Street,Somerset
  • Location: Street,Somerset

    For those of you expecting a flake or 2 next week:

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    Some incredible shots here:

     

    http://chaoticmind75.blogspot.ru/2013/08/my-technique-for-snowflakes-shooting.html

     

    Its still mind blowing how nature can produce something so beautiful as a snow flake. 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    I think it's the same tweet from yesterday mate, as I can't see any recent activity from Chris Fawkes.

    Courtesy of Matt Hugo, at least the EC32 day scenario isn't without support from other models;

    Posted Imageimage.jpg

    Always nice to see some collective support! Posted Image

     

    given that naefs is a combo of gem ens and gefs, if chart 3 didnt look like 1 and 2, we'd be asking some serious questions !

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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

    I think you mean one month too early Gibby unless you are saying there is absolutely no chance of memorable cold spells until mid January, well I think December 2010 and many other cold spells where the coldest temps on record for the UK are recorded in late December disprove your point big time, second half of December can be very cold indeed as nights are at their longest/sun power weakest and the continent starting to get very cold.

     

    We do need to put this one to bed.

     

    Recent Decembers have trended cooler (CET etc)

     

    Some people have again suggested you cant get deep cold in December

     

    December 2010 would have ranked the 15th coldest January in 350 years and the 7th  coldest February  in 350 yrs.

     

    In need had it not turned milder at the “â€end of Decemberâ€â€ it would have ranked even higher

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

     

    We can get deep embedded cold early in the winter with the right synoptics and -18c at night mid December near where I live in Benson with the right set up is easily obtainable.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Have all the models downgraded today?

     

    A more realistic take on things would be the best way to describe it

     

    Some were over hyping it too much

     

    Any chance you could pop your location into your profile?

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife

    Or could it just be a one off run and by tomorrow morning they will be back on track. I really hope so....

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

    Going to be cold regardless, so Summer Sun will be very unhappy which is excellent news for the rest of us.. lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife

    I do find it funny how when the models show milder weather everyone believes them.....

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    I do find it funny how when the models show milder weather everyone believes them.....

     

     

    MEATHEAD check your messages at top of screen the little envelope

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

    Just watch the 18z give us a Stella run and leave us all scratching our heads...

     

    C.S

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    I think the curse of the daily express has filtered through to the models this afternoon.....................

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    The latest update from NASA is in it continues to go for an average or slightly above average winter

     

    Posted Image

     

    Rainfall looks bang on average

     

    Posted Image

     

    Individual months for temperatures don't offer much for cold with December and January above average and February on average

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    Individual months for rain show February to be slightly above average away from the east and south east but with December and January quite average we get an average winter overall

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    So another model is signalling a fairly average UK winter for precipitation and temperatures range from average to marginally above

    Edited by Summer Sun
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