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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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I think you mean one month too early Gibby unless you are saying there is absolutely no chance of memorable cold spells until mid January, well I think December 2010 and many other cold spells where the coldest temps on record for the UK are recorded in late December disprove your point big time, second half of December can be very cold indeed as nights are at their longest/sun power weakest and the continent starting to get very cold.

 

Gibby is very negative towards cold! even if we had -20 uppers with a raging easterly, (would say rain and sleet at low levels!)

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Gibby is very negative towards cold! even if we had -20 uppers with a raging easterly, (would say rain and sleet at low levels!)

 

Gibby say's what he see's there are too many references to 2010 in the MOD thread currently, Gibby's summaries are always unbiased

 

Anyone know any good Meteorology books to read to get me started??

 

There is a good learning centre here - http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/24-learning-about-weather-and-meteorology/

Edited by Summer Sun
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I think you mean one month too early Gibby unless you are saying there is absolutely no chance of memorable cold spells until mid January, well I think December 2010 and many other cold spells where the coldest temps on record for the UK are recorded in late December disprove your point big time, second half of December can be very cold indeed as nights are at their longest/sun power weakest and the continent starting to get very cold.

 

Yes - but deep cold is really a thing of January and the first two weeks of Feb. Lower sea temps and the time lag in the effect of shorter days makes this period more favourable. For the south of England my 3 most memorable cold spells came in Jan 87 when I was at school and it was absolutely freezing... Feb 91 when I damn nearly got snowed in on the M1... and then a lesser known one in Feb 96 when south Dorset got hit with a major stalling front and the snow on the sides of the roads was ploughed over 8 feet high and looked like something from the alps. That one really was a cracker because it was unforecast and so when I woke up and couldnt even see my car number plate outside it was so deep I nearly fainted in shock. Only downer that day, and for much of the week, was that we suffered horrendous power cuts cos the snow pulled everything down. 20 miles down the road in Poole they didnt have a flake!! But the cold air won that battle, and south Dorset was a winter wonderland for a week and the school I was working at closed for 3 days. The HM was furious - "Thomas Hardye School never closes!!!" he ranted afterwards. Ironically he was stuck in his village for a week and couldnt get in anyway!

 

No memorable cold spells in my lifetime in December. 2010 gave some wet snow that melted fast but really it was just pretty miserable. I just dont think that we have cooled down enough for December really to stick. Different in the north of course where winter arrives 2 - 3 weeks earlier anyway.

Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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Gibby is very negative towards cold! even if we had -20 uppers with a raging easterly, (would say rain and sleet at low levels!)

LOL! That made me chuckle! Posted Image

 

I doubt even Gibby would say rain and sleet at low levels with those kinda uppers.... but i fully understand what you're saying Posted Image

Edited by SE Blizzards
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its a spread on dam

 

lower dam is lower heights and higher dam is higher hieghts

 

the colours are for how much it changes from each run on the ensembles

 

so scandanavia has a spread of 20 so it could be in a range of that lower or higher than the op run

 

meaning some have lower dam there some have higher and that's where the spread comes from.

 

the less spread the better modelled it is in that area the more spread the more unreliable the output is in that area.

 

i believe the spread is against the ens mean. the remark i would make on that chart (and its even larger on naefs aswell) is that the spread is very very large on a hemispheric scale.  week 2 remains uncertain but we are trending in the right direction for a continuation of cold and possible reload.

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i believe the spread is against the ens mean. the remark i would make on that chart (and its even larger on naefs aswell) is that the spread is very very large on a hemispheric scale.  week 2 remains uncertain but we are trending in the right direction for a continuation of cold and possible reload.

 

Yes - that is my interpretation of the models too. However RJS sees the pattern flattening out with low pressure barrelling through once again... and I cant escape the nagging feeling that the vortex is too well formed to support long term blocking at the moment, and that possibly the models still do not take a great account of this. We will see. Very interesting.

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i believe the spread is against the ens mean. the remark i would make on that chart (and its even larger on naefs aswell) is that the spread is very very large on a hemispheric scale.  week 2 remains uncertain but we are trending in the right direction for a continuation of cold and possible reload.

 

ah ok I thought it was the spread in the ens from what the op was showing

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Gibby say's what he see's there are too many references to 2010 in the MOD thread currently, Gibby's summaries are always unbiased

 

 

There is a good learning centre here - http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/24-learning-about-weather-and-meteorology/

You beat me to it on both accounts Summer Sun, John holmes and others have  put some excellent learning material on that thread its a great read if you want to learn the basics of charts etc.

 

and gibby puts his own view point forward what is totally unbiased ,but it is always best not to get excited by charts as they constantly change.

 

There are some fantastic charts for cold on offer but i think alot of users have got carried away after for 2009, 2010(anything less than a foot of snow is a nightmare) lets be honest after the 2011 and 21012 november/december  we are in a great position looking at the hemisphere charts. here in leicester we didn't even get a frost in 2011 and here we are moaning if theres going to be snow in november i.e autumn. 

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Anyone know any good Meteorology books to read to get me started??

 

http://www.amazon.com/Introduction-Dynamic-Meteorology-Fifth-Edition/dp/0123848660 Posted Image

 

As a serious suggestion, I like all the articles here, they are a really excellent resource:

 

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/

 

 

He runs through things very nicely in a relatively easy to understand way, and he draws some pretty nice diagrams in some of them. I'm a meteorologist but I read heaps of his stuff. I can never remember which way is a negatively tilted trough.........

 

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/127/

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ah ok I thought it was the spread in the ens from what the op was showing

 

by looking at the spread and comparing to the op, you get a good idea if the op is plausible. often, you will see an fi op chart showing a change in emphasis from previous runs. once the ens and spreads are out, you can see if the change is reasonable. if its outside the spreads its probably not.

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and then a lesser known one in Feb 96 when south Dorset got hit with a major stalling front and the snow on the sides of the roads was ploughed over 8 feet high and looked like something from the alps. That one really was a cracker because it was unforecast and so when I woke up and couldnt even see my car number plate outside it was so deep I nearly fainted in shock. Only downer that day, and for much of the week, was that we suffered horrendous power cuts cos the snow pulled everything down. 20 miles down the road in Poole they didnt have a flake!! But the cold air won that battle, and south Dorset was a winter wonderland for a week and the school I was working at closed for 3 days. The HM was furious - "Thomas Hardye School never closes!!!" he ranted afterwards. Ironically he was stuck in his village for a week and couldnt get in anyway!

 

That happened in our school too. The teacher wasn't happy the next day after it transpired that only half the class had turned up the previous day. I lied and said I was sick - amazingly he believed it. Posted Image

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well it's getting rather exciting i hope we r not heading for a big letdown by the time t0 comes round that would be a bitter pill to swallo after that ecm last dec. As for gibby his not a ramper he says what he sees and that's what we need on the md thread. On the other hand it's going to be painfull watching j.m and j.p glowting if the cynoptics bare fruit over the next week or so.

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well it's getting rather exciting i hope we r not heading for a big letdown by the time t0 comes round that would be a bitter pill to swallo after that ecm last dec. As for gibby his not a ramper he says what he sees and that's what we need on the md thread. On the other hand it's going to be painfull watching j.m and j.p glowting if the cynoptics bare fruit over the next week or so.

Tbf even the most extreme Synoptics thrown out by op runs and ensembles are no-where near the level Madden and Powell have said we would be getting. Another no show from them and egg on the face!
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If it snows here next week it will mean 4 of the last 5 winters have started before december. 4 of the last 5 winters have delivered snowfalls well over a foot at some point. Definatly getting colder in our part of the world and that can only be good for the rest of this winter.

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Interesting developments ahead, for a while now I've had a mild to very mild start to winter written in my notes, I have December as dominated by a westerly flow with bouts of the usual rain some strong winds.  Mind you that was also my thoughts for Nov in latter 2/3rds and signs on models currently are that its going to turn pretty chilly and not a westerly flow.  The depth or longevity of a cold outbreak is undecided yet in my view and models aren't as bullish on overnights.

 

BFTP

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Gibby is very negative towards cold! even if we had -20 uppers with a raging easterly, (would say rain and sleet at low levels!)

 

that is a very unfair comment, he posts as he sees it. To my professional eye he is like most posters on here and has a cold bias. So do I. But to say he is 'very negative towards cold' is plain wrong.

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that is a very unfair comment, he posts as he sees it. To my professional eye he is like most posters on here and has a cold bias. So do I. But to say he is 'very negative towards cold' is plain wrong.

Agree John. I find the comment bizarre!

Edited by Steve C
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Some saying we're in a new era of colder winters.

Well, look at winters 78-91. That's been regarded by many as a good set of winters post WW2, incl myself, esp the 78-87 period.

But, even that set of winters had a number of mild winters, with little snow.

Yes, people who post about a new era of weather change have nowhere near enough of a historical context to make that judgement yet.

For instance there was a sequence of mild winters from 1732 to 1739, immediately followed by a series of cold winters, from 1740 to 1746. The first in the cold sequence must have been a shock to the system!Posted Image

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