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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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-1 to -7 is enough. Much prefer a high precipitation climate with more snow like the Canadian maritimes than an ice cold climate

 

Northern Japan is extremely snowy and not too extreme in terms of cold.

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Hi very new to all this. But must admit its very addictive lol. Just a few points just been on the model threat and gibby seems to think it may turn milder as next week progresses. Love frostys updates but apart of me feels he may be ramping it up slightly. Apologise if im wrong. I would certainly settle for a few frosts and colder weather for a few days over all this mild muck we have had to endure. But think it might be too early just yet for any snow round these parts. Anyway look forward to the winter ahead. And hopefully we wont go back to the horrible mild stuff in the near future.

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Hokkaido is too much of a good thing. As I said, Estonia, southern Finland or central Sweden would be best, around -1 to -7 with snowfall probably around 80-100cm annually, but that snow building up over the winter, leading to a very good depth by March.

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It's getting interesting. So where are we today?

 

Some thoughts. As posted in the model thread the ECM ENS output is really signalling that height rises to our NW are coming, and the profile is a little too broad in terms of the ENS for it to be of the classic toppler:

 

Posted Image

 

The NA SST prediction today from CFS is pretty clear. The tripole pattern that might help to sustain a mid lat block to our west is looking more and more the form horse, and with very warm water just off the coast of the Eastern seaboard that suggests to me low pressure systems firing up and perhaps undercutting that block to reinforce it further.

 

Posted Image

It's a pretty interesting situation tbh. The strat profile is unremarkable to my eyes at the moment other than looking stable and cold, but enough is happening in the models to hold out continued hope that the winter may develop well. I'm still seeing NW and occasional N blasts around a waxing and waning mid atlantic high, so no change to my overall thoughts for the immediate future - but I am becoming increasingly optimistic as to where this winter may lead us in the end.

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not sure what this tweet means ,  does it have any implications downstream anybody?

 

Big drop of N. Hemisphere ZAPE (contraction of N Pac jet) this past week-often coincides with cold weather o/ the US pic.twitter.com/khKssFGDqS

 



Hi very new to all this. But must admit its very addictive lol. Just a few points just been on the model threat and gibby seems to think it may turn milder as next week progresses. Love frostys updates but apart of me feels he may be ramping it up slightly. Apologise if im wrong. I would certainly settle for a few frosts and colder weather for a few days over all this mild muck we have had to endure. But think it might be too early just yet for any snow round these parts. Anyway look forward to the winter ahead. And hopefully we wont go back to the horrible mild stuff in the near future.

Hi Terrier, welcome aboard....as part of your initiation on here you are going to need the following ....

 

1. a pram

2. some toys

3 prozac

4 . A large straw

 

im sure the longer you stay on here ,particularly the Model Thread... you will understand why youll need some of if not all of the above Posted Image

 

Not sure where you read gibbys summary of it turning milder next week ,quite the opposite i expect...frosts will certainly be more prevelant too with the possibility of snow in places too... but thats FI ( Fantasy Island )

 

heres some chatrs showing potential snow for the uk in the near future, these are more than likely to change as they are from the gfs 12z

 

post-18134-0-62086200-1384292748_thumb.ppost-18134-0-58401000-1384292783_thumb.ppost-18134-0-67796600-1384292802_thumb.p

 

Frostys posts are really good, he works hard on them .likes most weather types and doesnt demonstrate ramping as such , he is just very enthusiastic and sometimes quite funny too ... hes a good lad to have around ...

 

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Think, as before the ECM could grab the leading hand on coming prognosis.seems to nearly always take lead in regards heights building to Greenland,.....could be some very intresting viewing coming up...and who knows even verification!!!.

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Think, as before the ECM could grab the leading hand on coming prognosis.seems to nearly always take lead in regards heights building to Greenland,.....could be some very intresting viewing coming up...and who knows even verification!!!.

Gfs showing some promising signs now all of a sudden.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111306/gfs-0-384.png?6

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