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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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One of the best examples of a hot dry sunny summer sandwiched between two cold snowy winters was that of 1955, when following a cool mixed June (more so in the south than in the north) July was widely one of the sunniest Julys on record (indeed it still holds the record for Wales's sunniest month) and August, though not quite as spectacular sunshine wise, ended up dry, sunny and notably warm.  The winter of 1954/55 was the "Operation Snowdrop" winter which had some unusually potent northerlies, while the winter of 1955/56 had an exceptionally cold February with winds frequently from the E and NE.

 

For the Midlands northwards, 1983/84 was quite a good example- both years had indifferent Junes but then July and August were scorchers, while the winter of 1983/84 had that unusually wintry westerly-dominated January, and 1984/85 was a cold snowy winter almost everywhere, though the run of fine summers was abruptly halted in 1985.

 

Edit: I see North-Easterly Blast got there first with those examples!

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Another forgotten awful dud winter was 2007-08 - although not quite as mild as 06-07, it was equally as devoid of cold spells, cold synoptics and snow. All that winter did was see a couple of longer Rex blocking spells than 06-07.The monthly CETs do not always pick up record mild spells - a forgotten record mild month straddling two calendar months was from January 13th to February 12th 2002 - that 31 day period produced a CET of 8.0 exactly - which I think is the warmest ever 31 day spell in january / February, milder than the warmest calendar months of January and February. Now that winter was also pretty much a write off - although Dec 2001 did produce some colder drier weather mostly through mid-latitude blocking though little in the way of snow or anything notable in terms of cold, which lasted into the early part of Jan 2002 - before the winter deteriorated into a horror show.

I remember the chilly anticyclonic frosty spell before Christmas 2007, the very short lived easterly in early January 2008 that brought snow flurries and a polar NWly that brought snow showers and a snow cover here at the end of that January. This winter is worse than both 2006-07 and 2007-08 at this stage because there hardly been any frost let alone snow.Even late February 2002, I saw snow and a cover in a polar maritime airmass. There were some disruption in Scotland because of it. Edited by Weather-history
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I remember that polar maritime blast on the 23rd February 2002- snow showers got right over to the east of the Pennines and brought a couple of centimetres of snow cover to the Tyne and Wear area overnight although it melted by mid-afternoon.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2002/Rrea00120020223.gif

 

Indeed, I remember a day of sunshine and snow showers in Tyneside on the 3rd January 2008 and in Norwich I had a covering of snow on the night of the 1st/2nd February as a trough moved down the North Sea and rain turned to snow that evening.

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I remember the chilly anticyclonic frosty spell before Christmas 2007, the very short lived easterly in early January 2008 that brought snow flurries and a polar NWly that brought snow showers and a snow cover here at the end of that January.This winter is worse than both 2006-07 and 2007-08 at this stage because there hardly been any frost let alone snow.Even late February 2002, I saw snow and a cover in a polar maritime airmass. There were some disruption in Scotland because of it.

The CETs for both Dec 2013 and Jan 2014 will not come out anywhere close to record mild levels;  what has been so remarkable is the persistent static level of temperatures all winter so far - and even since early November.  For almost three months, night minima has hardly deviated either side of 2-4*C, and day maxima has hardly deviated either side of 7-9*C almost every single day since early November.  There has actually been little in the way of really mild weather (ie 10-12 day maxes and 7-8*C night minima).  The combination of the static temperature levels described and hardly any deviation from it have meant that it has never been quite cold enough for snow at least south of Scotland, but many places have seen a lot of "cold rain" rather than "mild rain".  The static temperature levels have meant few frosts with few nights widely below 0*C.

 

I cannot recall a winter that has seen such static temperature levels all winter like has been the case this year.  Scotland has done pretty well out of cold zonality this winter, but south of Scotland the UK has just persistently been on the wrong side of zonality for anything wintry.

From 2007-08http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7FaKj9PzYAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sqnaueflB4

Very slim pickings indeed there out of a really dud winter - days like this were very few and far between.

The CETs for both Dec 2013 and Jan 2014 will not come out anywhere close to record mild levels;  what has been so remarkable is the persistent static level of temperatures all winter so far - and even since early November.  For almost three months, night minima has hardly deviated either side of 2-4*C, and day maxima has hardly deviated either side of 7-9*C almost every single day since early November.  There has actually been little in the way of really mild weather (ie 10-12 day maxes and 7-8*C night minima).  The combination of the static temperature levels described and hardly any deviation from it have meant that it has never been quite cold enough for snow at least south of Scotland, but many places have seen a lot of "cold rain" rather than "mild rain".  The static temperature levels have meant few frosts with few nights widely below 0*C.

 

I cannot recall a winter that has seen such static temperature levels all winter like has been the case this year.  Scotland has done pretty well out of cold zonality this winter, but south of Scotland the UK has just persistently been on the wrong side of zonality for anything wintry.

 

 

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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The CETs for both Dec 2013 and Jan 2014 will not come out anywhere close to record mild levels;  what has been so remarkable is the persistent static level of temperatures all winter so far - and even since early November.  For almost three months, night minima has hardly deviated either side of 2-4*C, and day maxima has hardly deviated either side of 7-9*C almost every single day since early November.  There has actually been little in the way of really mild weather (ie 10-12 day maxes and 7-8*C night minima).  The combination of the static temperature levels described and hardly any deviation from it have meant that it has never been quite cold enough for snow at least south of Scotland, but many places have seen a lot of "cold rain" rather than "mild rain".  The static temperature levels have meant few frosts with few nights widely below 0*C.

 

I cannot recall a winter that has seen such static temperature levels all winter like has been the case this year.  Scotland has done pretty well out of cold zonality this winter, but south of Scotland the UK has just persistently been on the wrong side of zonality for anything wintry.

Very slim pickings indeed there out of a really dud winter.

 

You are right, when it's been 5-8 degrees it's felt chilly in a strong breeze. As you say It's not been a very mild Winter but not cold - notably so by night.

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Winter 2006/2007 was redeemed by 2 significant snow events in Feburary (the 8th and 9th I think) which gave 10-11 inches combined with a max depth of around 8 inches. Winter 2007/2008 was terrible though with only one temporary thin covering. So far we've not had even that this winter, just some sleet.

 

I cannot ever remember a winter without any snow on the ground at all.

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Crap winter, crap summer, crap winter, crap summer again- that was the story of 2007 and 2008. It was like the autumn that began at the end of September 2006 lasted two years, broken only in April 2007. 

 

Not a single day with lying snow between Feb 2007 and Jan 2009 here. However besides 06/7 and 07/8, the following winters also had not seen lying snow by the end of January:

 

2011/12 (first day 19 Feb)

2002/3 (4th Feb)

1999/00 (none)

1998/99 (9th Feb)

1991/2 and 1992/3 (two consecutive winters without lying snow)

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those 2 winters were okay, 8-9th Feb '07, around 10cms snow, 07/08 saw a white Easter 23rd March, and much better snow on 6th Apr around 10cms

 

99/00 was mainly snowless, just a dusting on 03/04 Apr, super duper compared to the SE, which had loads on 04 Apr, as featured on airline

Edited by IrememberAtlantic252
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Absolutely loving this mild Winter, as are most people I know. Minimum of transport disruption, not needing to use much heating - much, much needed in these financially straightened times - and not needing to use Winter coats.

Easier to be outside, easier to travel, safer and cheaper.

next up... Roll on Spring :-)

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"Most people"? Well unless I have been misreading the forums, "most people" including myself, have been cmplaining about the mild winter. I you like it then that's fine that's your opinion, but I'm not sure where you got "most people" from.

 

Don't feed the troll.

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"Most people"? Well unless I have been misreading the forums, "most people" including myself, have been cmplaining about the mild winter. I you like it then that's fine that's your opinion, but I'm not sure where you got "most people" from.

I presume he means generally speaking rather than on NW, and he's probably right.I've still not figured out why most people dislike cold and/or snow yet moan about the rain, wind and cloud brought about by the mild alternative. Odd, I know.
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Yeah, that's one thing I don't understand. The majority of people say that wet and windy winters are horrible and yet when it snows, they wish it was wet and windy. Personally I hate mild winters and I love cold snowy winters.

I consider myself to be quite adept at enduring any weather type. However, I must admit, the current relentless mildness and it's associated weather types is becoming a tad tiresome now.I'd really appreciate a cold, calm and most importantly sunny spell, if only for a few days to break up the monotony. I kind of need such a spell to remind me it's winter and reset my seasonal body clock. At the minute I'm still stuck in Autumn mode.I can't imagine it's good for the wildlife, either. A March cold snap would be worse than last year.
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Most people are loving this mild winter you say? they must like rain, wind and cloud then. Transport disruption is good, the less time spent at work the better imho lol.

May be good if you still get paid but I like most people don't and many can't afford to lose a day or mores  pay.

 

I haven't enjoyed this winter though it is better than cold and snow but to me it is like an option of one leg amputated or two, would much prefered a mild and dry winter.

Edited by CongletonHeat
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Maybe it's who one speaks too, but most people I've spoken too whether they are weather enthusiasts or don't give a hoot, prefer cold weather in winter. They know that in this country cold in winter more often than not means drier and more settled and it feels more seasonal. Notice, I do not mention snow as opinions differ on this again. Then again, there will always be the ones who prefer mild, wet, windy with flooding...

 

As for Dusk1983, best just ignore him - he's quite clearly attention-seeking.

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Last occasion I saw two consecutive air frosts was 25th and 26th November!It's February this weekend!Even by this stage in 1988-89, 1989-90, 1997-98 and 2006-07, I have seen more air frosts than this winter ie 1st December to now.

 

Surprisingly back home (east Devon) this winter has recorded more air frosts than last winter... (only one more mind) but then I don't rate last winter that highly there, especially in the minema department. Indeed this January also had a lower minema (-2.7c) than last January or Februaries rubbish -2.4c.

 

A mis-conception I've seen is that this winter/weather has been dull, I believe at least averaged nationally December and January have been at least slightly sunnier than average so far, and probably more sunny than last winter (at least down this way).

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I presume he means generally speaking rather than on NW, and he's probably right.I've still not figured out why most people dislike cold and/or snow yet moan about the rain, wind and cloud brought about by the mild alternative. Odd, I know.

 

Yeah, that's one thing I don't understand. The majority of people say that wet and windy winters are horrible and yet when it snows, they wish it was wet and windy. Personally I hate mild winters and I love cold snowy winters.

I think the bottom line is that a lot of people are never satisfied- it's a similar story during the summer months, when we get a lot of people complaining about the lack of a decent summer, and then when we get that sought-after hot dry sunny spell, many of the same people complain that it's too hot (and I see this a lot among the general public as well as on weather forums).

 

My experience has generally been that public opinion on short-lived cold snowy spells is pretty mixed, and often dependent on what they are doing at the time (e.g. good to watch or go sledging/build snowmen in, not so good for travelling to work) but as a cold snowy spell goes on and on, we see a trend towards the majority disliking it.  As for disruption caused by this mild winter, well, it varies depending on what area of the country you live in, with the effects of orographic enhancement in the west and rain shadow in the east resulting in many western areas having similar or more disruption relative to the amount we would expect in a snowy winter, and most eastern areas having somewhat less.

 

It's a similar story with the sunshine statistics- in such westerly-dominated winters it is quite normal for eastern parts of the country to be sunnier than average in spite of the frequent rain, while in the west it tends to be cloudier than average.  December 2013 certainly had a marked west-east split in the monthly sunshine anomalies.  Snowy winters are often the reverse, sunny in the west and cloudy in the east, due to the association with northerly and/or easterly winds.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Well this winter has been a total let down. I hoped we would eventually get some cold happen but I think it's too late now. Seems like everywhere else is getting awesome cold this winter apart from us. Really sucks to be living in the UK right now. I wouldn't even say it's been that mild it's just felt like autumn has never ended and the endless rain is horrific! Hopefully next winter will bring us something special, if it doesn't I'm moving to Moscow!

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May be good if you still get paid but I like most people don't and many can't afford to lose a day or mores  pay.

 

I haven't enjoyed this winter though it is better than cold and snow but to me it is like an option of one leg amputated or two, would much prefered a mild and dry winter.

I bet there's been quite a few who've missed work in the flooded areas though, as well as seeing there homes flooded and all there valuables lost, and I don't think for one minute they'll be saying "thank god it's mild".

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I bet there's been quite a few who've missed work in the flooded areas though, as well as seeing there homes flooded and all there valuables lost, and I don't think for one minute they'll be saying "thank god it's mild".

It's a good job they don't have Dianne Oxberry or Eno Eruotor presenting their regional weather then.

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I recall reading on this forum and also the UKWeatherWorld forum about how one BBC forecast on the 18th January 2007 (when there were severe gales in many parts of the country, flooding in the west, and ironically, some wet snow over the Scottish Lowlands with a covering at Glasgow Airport) ended with, "But at least it will be mild".  I haven't heard that phrase much for a while but then again I haven't watched or listened to media forecasts much since around 2004/05.

 

Re. "slim pickings", another winter that some have mentioned is 1999/00, which was completely snowless in parts of the south during January and February.  But December 1999 had frequent wet snowfalls even in the south, from northerly and north-westerly outbreaks (most of the sites in Weather Log had between 5 and 10 days of sleet or snow falling, though many had none with snow lying), January had a couple of short-lived northerlies with sleety showers in the east, and February had polar maritime incursions on the 12th and 16th, and the latter one brought a widespread snow cover over Ireland, western Scotland and north-west England, and also the Tyne and Wear area.  In Tyneside I had 7 days of sleet/snow falling in December, 3 in January and 6 in February.  Again, nothing like that so far this "winter".

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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With a shift of QBO and possible neutral ENSO state continuing (possible weak El Nino) I just wonder what spring and summer may offer. A continuation of wet conditions may be catastrophic but more than possible. Saying this, I can't see such a wet spring following such a wet winter as things do generally tend to balance out (although some people are fond of using this method for forecasting).

 

Ah well, at least next winter we look to be going in with a -QBO state which should negate the issue of a strong early vortex formation somewhat. I believe Chiono has already said that the QBO state should work more in our favour next winter.

 

Posted Image

 

Doesn't seem to be an amazingly strong correlation over the British Isles.

 

Also....it looks opposite to what might be expected. Negative correlation would imply that as QBO goes up, surface temperature goes down.

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