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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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James Madden is back

 

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He's also warning of another potentially dangerous and major snow event next week for many parts of the country

 

How it can be another I don't know we haven't had one yet!

 

"Exceptionally colder" - James Madden, aged 11 and 3/4

 

it's going to be 7c! where is this forecast for? South Sudan?

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James Madden is back

 

Posted Image

 

He's also warning of another potentially dangerous and major snow event next week for many parts of the country

 

How it can be another I don't know we haven't had one yet!

Mans a total jackpot.

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James Madden is back

 

Posted Image

 

He's also warning of another potentially dangerous and major snow event next week for many parts of the country

 

How it can be another I don't know we haven't had one yet!

 

Can someone send that complete and utter weapon James Madden on an extended holiday somewhere?....Sick of reading/hearing his garbage.

Edited by Carl46Wrexham
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Temperatures generally between 8-12C and you've not had to turn on the heating?! Must be some insulation you have there as houses generally drop in temp towards outside temp when heating is off for long periods. I wouldn't fancy living in temperatures that low and have had the heating on all winter. House gets damp and cold otherwise.

 

I can only have heating on in the night, it wont come on in day.

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I have never written a post as downbeat as this but in terms of notable cold and snow, I have personally written off this winter now. Some may say why

a) I am writing it off when next week looks interesting?

b] I am writing it off when I know of historical past examples of notable late winter spells?

Some places may get snowfalls next week but the cold uppers are mixed out during Monday, so it becomes increasingly marginal at low levels. Then when the winds go into the east, it's brief before we lose the flow and the uppers are not special anyway. The Atlantic threatens to move in at the end of next week. I'm not convinced it is going to bring a general snow event, it may not even bring in snow for low levels anyway by this stage but we shall see.

As for February, I see two possible scenarios, more anticyclonicity of the Rex block type that limits precipitation or a continuation of what has plagued us a lot of this winter, Atlantic domination. I just don't see or feel a flip in the pressure pattern as has happened in the past for this winter. It feels a Sod's Law winter to me, when cold snowy scenarios have appeared in the charts and they have hardly been any it has to be said thus far, they have downgraded to virtually nothing such as the "northerly" during early December. Another example of the Sod Law nature of this winter is that around here it has dropped close to freezing but never actually got below, it has hovered about 1-2C at times.

I don't recall such lack of wintriness by this stage in a winter even by 1988-89 and 2006-07 standards. I saw lying snow in November 1988 and by this stage in January 2007 I have seen falling snow. Nothing thus far. Just looking at meteorological winter itself, it's on a par with 1988-89 if not as mild.

It just feels to me this winter is going nowhere, it's a non starter.

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It certainly feels like this winter is a non runner,ive only recordeded 2 slight air frosts so far. Yet the strange thing is there has not been many days were the temps have reached double figures either,the daytime temps have often been around the 7c-9c mark. Only a handfull of days have remained below 5c here. Another winter with a lack of northerlies which would make that 3 winters on the trot.

 

Of course we do have Feb still to come and who kinows what that might bring perhaps something more winterlike then what we have seen thus far but the way this winter has gone its difficult to know. My gut feeling is that we will see some kind of half hearted cold spell during feb with some locations getting some snow but nothing too exciting,it would be very rare to go through a winter and not see at least a half decent fall of snow at some point at low levels in parts of the BI especially Britan in particular whatever about Ireland.

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I have never written a post as downbeat as this but in terms of notable cold and snow, I have personally written off this winter now. Some may say whya) I am writing it off when next week looks interesting?b] I am writing it off when I know of historical past examples of notable late winter spells?Some places may get snowfalls next week but the cold uppers are mixed out during Monday, so it becomes increasingly marginal at low levels. Then when the winds go into the east, it's brief before we lose the flow and the uppers are not special anyway. The Atlantic threatens to move in at the end of next week. I'm not convinced it is going to bring a general snow event, it may not even bring in snow for low levels anyway by this stage but we shall see.As for February, I see two possible scenarios, more anticyclonicity of the Rex block type that limits precipitation or a continuation of what has plagued us a lot of this winter, Atlantic domination. I just don't see or feel a flip in the pressure pattern as has happened in the past for this winter. It feels a Sod's Law winter to me, when cold snowy scenarios have appeared in the charts and they have hardly been any it has to be said thus far, they have downgraded to virtually nothing such as the "northerly" during early December. Another example of the Sod Law nature of this winter is that around here it has dropped close to freezing but never actually got below, it has hovered about 1-2C at times.I don't recall such lack of wintriness by this stage in a winter even by 1988-89 and 2006-07 standards. I saw lying snow in November 1988 and by this stage in January 2007 I have seen falling snow. Nothing thus far. Just looking at meteorological winter itself, it's on a par with 1988-89 if not as mild.It just feels to me this winter is going nowhere, it's a non starter.

 

Maybe spring will be cold again. That would disgruntle a few who have revelled in this dire excuse of a winter!

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What's been another notable feature of January is the homogeneity of maxima- there have been none below 5C or above 11C, with more than half in the 7-9C range.

 

The total temperature range all month is only about 14C which is one of the lowest of any month in recent years- the other two months which stand out for this, October 2004 and August 2008, were both much duller relative to average than this one. Clear nights where the temperature didn't drop as one would expect have been a plague this winter.

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Fully agree with the last few comments.

We are still waiting for the first sub zero temperature of 2014.

Some have come close with several mornings around 1'c and a bit of ice on windscreens but even the clear nights have failed to deliver.

The same has to be said for snow.

Other than a bit of temporary cover on the coldest of car roofs, nothing since new year and TBH nothing since a brief incursion of cold air gave a couple of cm's early one morning in mid November.

Some on here may justifiable say, we've not had a single flake so think yourself lucky but for a location such as mine in one of the highest towns in England it has been poor.

Last winter wasn't brilliant but this weekend in 2013 gave us a brief but substantial 12 inch fall of snow and that followed several days of cold weather with lying snow.

This year we've just been plain unlucky, and this morning sums it up with a chance of snow ending up as just cold rain. Maybe that luck will soon change.

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Another example of the Sod Law nature of this winter is that around here it has dropped close to freezing but never actually got below, it has hovered about 1-2C at times.

 

That's quite a statistic, can't be many times that has happened in the records by this stage of winter? Seems a few others haven't recorded a sub-zero temperature. We've had about 3-4 mild airfrosts here and one day of sleet, still pretty woeful.

Also the wettest Dec-Jan I've ever recorded.

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Maybe spring will be cold again. That would disgruntle a few who have revelled in this dire excuse of a winter!

 

Anyone revelling in this revolting non stop rainy weather deserves an all expenses paid holiday to the Somerset Levels.

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This winter might not be a good one For urban areas but Scotland's Ski areas Are loaded at the moment..If only i had my university near the highlandsPosted Image

 

post-20651-0-01447200-1390752158_thumb.p

 

 

Glencoe 150 Cm 

Nevis range 130 Cm

Cairngorm 120 Cm

 

 

 

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Just seen the weather on telly and they have forcast snow and we may get some easterlies for a while!

 

East,West North wins out, a real bun fight. I recall some years ago....Something will happen very soon I Know. 

 

There is going to be a shown down soon East meets West

 

I'm taking the middle of the road

 

Edited by stewfox
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Evening all :)

 

A rare opportunity to post my weather thoughts and I thought I would eschew the Model Discussion bear pit and the Moans, Whingers and Grumblers in their forum and come here if that's ok.

 

It's been by many measures a remarkable winter period so far - one of the longest periods of sustained unsettled weather since the Autumn of 2000 with copious rainfall after a preceding (and seemingly forgotten) very dry and mild November. Yesterday's thunder storm would have graced any breakdown to a Spanish plume for intensity and it's not been the only intense squall.

 

Contrary to some on here, my area of lowland East London has had a few frosts and even a little fog (though once again another quiet year for this phenomenon which definitely seems to be less prevalent than 20-30 years ago). I thought we might have an anticyclonic midwinter and apart from the first four letters, I was spot on !!

 

The indicators for an unsettled winter were there from the start with an extremely cold stratosphere setting up in early December, overpowering the long-standing European HP block and ushering in this long period of stormy and wet conditions but many credible LRFs (as distinct from hope casting) expected this and also argued for a much weaker stratosphere from February onwards.

 

This seems to be what is happening or about to happen and the stratospheric profile for mid-February looks very different. That said, and as the superb Tamara has opined on more than one occasion, breaking such a powerful vortex is a long job and so it has proved and even now it has enough power to hold the line into the start of February. I had hoped we might be a little further forward but it now seems likely that the first half of February will be the swansong of the vortex but what follows ? A late spell of winter or an early spell of spring ? 

 

That brings me to the usual old piffle from contributors to the Model Discussion Forum whining on ad nauseam about it being "too late" for snow in late February or March. Now, when I cast my mind back to the last year it snowed in March - oh yes, 2013, so long ago. If the air is cold enough, it can easily snow in March. My concern re: settling snow would be the warm ground but that could be cooled quickly under the right conditions.

 

In my part of the world, ALL snow is transitory - the falls of 1st February 2009, 18th December 2010 and 19th January 2013 were all good to look at but, apart from the 2010 fall, most of it went within 72 hours. The urban heat island that is London takes a quick toll of settled snow but that doesn't mean snow can't fall even in what would normally be called spring. We've had snow in late March and even once in April so it's far from game over for snowfall. If the only thing that floats your boat is weeks of lying snow and cold temperatures than go to Canada or Siberia and you'll be happy.

 

We may not get much out of the next few days (or we may) but I'm far from downcast for mid-February onwards. I do think the prolonged period of prolonged rain will end . We MIGHT get a prolonged period of cold with snow - we MIGHT get an early spring with warmth, I don't know. My money (and nice money it is too) would be on something cold for the second half of February and into early March before a rapid shift to a warm early spring spell but I've been generally wrong so far about this winter.

 

I do expect a final period of Atlantic-driven weather into early February and will be looking at the distant reaches of FI from the end of next week for the beginning of the next chapter.

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we have just had our first snow shower of 2014 an hour ago , it didnt amount to anything but its a startPosted Image

It is better than what I heard just a couple of days ago when it was atlantic depressions as far as the eye could see,how quickly things change!

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There is still a month left to finally receive some seasonal weather, but this 'winter' is turning into the winter equivalent of the 'summer' we had in 2012. The only difference being that at least we had some summer weather at the end of May 2012 before the meteorological summer began, yet we've still to see any wintry weather this side of March 2013.

 

If we're not going to see some snow, it would be nice to finally have some dry weather.  The most frustrating thing about the model output at the moment is that when backing away from a cold outlook, it seems that we're stuck looking at charts like late Dec / early Jan again!  We didn't have any snowfall here in winter 2011-12, but at least we had some dry weather and frost.

 

On a positive note, there's always a chance for a sudden unexpected snowfall at this time of the year, like 9th February 2007 which gave my location more snowfall in one day than any other day since in an otherwise unremarkable winter season (even though it only lasted 2 days): http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/6344685.stm

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